CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the cancellation bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

  • Lauren

    Hello season 3 of Hart Of Dixie!

  • KT

    I’m sorry, but do TCD fans truly believe their show is going to be renewed with the 0.4 ratings its been getting as of late? Newsflash: it’s not going to happen.

  • Patrick

    I reckon Carrie Diaries will be renewed, and paired with HOD. All of The CW’s pilot projects are genre fare this year, HOD is a lock to return and it needs to be paired with something. I imagine both on Mondays with the rest of the week all action/genre shows.

  • Charmed

    @KT BATB won’t be renewed you know, it’s this years Secret Circle. TCD gets 0.4 consistently, which is only 0.1 lower than Beauty And The Flop

  • Greg

    Yeah, I don’t think Carrie Diaries will survive anymore. That said, if Beauty and the Beast stays at 0.5, then it will get cancelled too. In that case, CW could air half of ANTM on the fall (maybe on Tuesdays, after Hart of Dixie) and air reruns on Fridays after Nikita.

  • CrimTV

    The Carrie Diaries wont be renewed, Ringer wasn’t renewed with 0.3-0.5 ratings and that didn’t have a strong lead-in + was in the death slot. TCD will only have 13 episodes after this season, and if the CW want syndication it would need 75 more episodes!

  • Dave

    How funny would it be if HoD passed BATB on the index :D

    I believe that Carrie is dead at this point but I hope The CW holds onto AnnaSophia and Ellen Wong. They’re both very talented young girls and frankly the only bright spot of this failed reboot.

    Nikita is safe :D

  • Hello.

    I think HOD & TCD would make a good pair on Tuesdays. Where would they put BATB bc if the TVD spin-off gets picked up it’s pretty obvious it’s going Thrusday’s 9PM. Only available time slots would be Mondays (8pm or 9Pm) or Friday at 9pm I don’t think they’ll change Wednesday programming.

  • xRockStarz

    New Show (Company Town?)
    Hart of Dixie

    -Hart of Dixie should be renewed, a hell of a steady fanbase, acceptable ratings and the closest series after Nikita to syndication. But it is to weak for a Lead-In, CW should put a new show in the 8pm slot. Syndication programm are a better Lead-In. But it should be a show that works with HOD.

    New Show (The Hundred?)
    New Show (Tomorrow People)

    – Well, there Tuesday needs a complete make-over. But a selfstarter (the potential hit) in 8pm and after that again a new show, but like Monday, it should have a audience flow.


    – I think I doesn’t need to say something.

    The Vampire Diaries
    Neue Show (The Originals?)

    – Well, the TVD-post-slot curse. The Originals will be def. picked up. It could break the curse and maybe become a hit. But when it flops, then no show can break that curse! (I think it will be locate in high 0s – 0.7-0.9)

    Beauty and the Beast

    – Nikita is a lock for renewal (syndication) and CW can’t cancel all new shows, BaTB has better ratings than CD, so it should be renewed. And Nikita and BaTB has something in common. Hot womens who hit asses.


    CW def. needs a makeover and I think that except of The Hundred and The Orignals every new show should max. get a 13-episodes order. Quality over Quantity.

    First of all, the producers could make killer-episodes, since they only have 13 episodes. No filler episodes, no filler storyline etc…

    The audience stay thrilled and watches every week and CW has great pilots this year. They should test everyone and at the end of the season they should renew the new shows, who had the best averages.

    Just test it god damnit! Maybe one show could be a big hit, but you doesn’t pick it up, because you have room for 5 new shows?

    Cable-Modul, the audience stays thrilled, no repeats within the series running – so the ratings won’t really decline – and you test every pilot, so everyone gets a fair chance. It couldn’t be worse than now.

    Because of that, Reign takes Company Town-, Oxygen takes Tomorrow Peoples-Slot in Midseason.

  • Jane Elliot

    The cancellation of 90210 eliminated a lot of the uncertainty going forward. Between TCD and BatB, I give a slight edge to BatB, but I wouldn’t be surprised it goes the other way.

  • One

    If I can venture an opinion, the fact that Carrie Diaries isn’t a self-starter is actually a greater check against it, given that it was supposed to have all that “Sex and the City” heat.

    Personally, if I were CW, I’d just cut both shows and completely reconstruct either Mondays or Tuesdays.

  • xRockStarz

    * sry 4 my english, it’s not my native language.

    PS: Where the hell is the edit-button? :D

  • livvy

    BATB has double the episodes that TCD has. If it continues to have 0.1 more than TCD, I think it will get renewed over TCD. 0.1 is nothing when it comes to higher rated shows but for the CW, everything counts.
    Though as I don’t watch these shows, I have no idea if current storylines will impact future ratings.

    So happy Hart of Dixie has been upgraded!

  • starship

    I see some delude TCD fans on here again. I guess desperation to see your show renewed will do that to you, but better get to grips with reality now than be disappointed in May. The show is getting axed, no matter how BatB does. Yes, BatB is the better show and will be nice to get a second season, but that’s irrelevant, whether it’s renewed or not will entirely depend on how low its ratings get and what the CW can tolerate for next season. I don’t see it getting a full second season pick-up even if renewed, though, just a 13-episode schedule filler for next fall. TCD has already reached the cancellation threshold and the station gave it a chance to improve by airing the whole season without interruptions, but with four episodes left, it’s clear the show bombed. HoD and Nikita being up for renewal is hardly a surprise at this point and BatB’s potential renewal is entirely dependant on how the show does upon its return this week (and the rest of the season).

  • Dillan

    I really can’t see The CW cancelling all 3 of their Monday shows this year. I think TCD has an edge over BATB.

  • KT

    @Charmed I don’t watch BatB either, so I don’t care what happens to either show. Only show I watch on the network is HoD, which is in pretty good shape right now.

  • Michael

    Other than Cult, I just can’t see Mark Pedowitz cancelling anymore shows this year. Hart Of Dixie is CW’s highest rated show that isn’t fantasy/action related.

  • tv#1

    Possible CW 2013-2014 Schedule could be…

    Company Town
    Hart of Dixie

    The Selection


    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Beauty and the Beast


  • PurpleDrazi

    Oh boy, let the fandom bickering begin…

  • lll

    I believe both shows will be cancelled, especially with the new and promising pilots coming up.

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