CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    KS: “TCD and Beauty – I strongly believe TCD will be renewed over Beauty. Because, TCD would do better than Beauty if it is paired with TVD.”

    Shows aren’t renewed because someone at the network speculates that they would do better somewhere else. If they believe that, they move it DURING the season. If they don’t move it, then the ratings are what they are and control whether the show is renewed or not.

    Also as Brandy said, almost nothing survives after TVD. Whether it’s true the fans are that mobile and comprise that big of TVD’s audience, I don’t know. But it sure ACTS that way.

    So TCD’s ratings are what they are – abysmal – and the show is definitely going to be canceled.

    “I believe Beauty ratings would slide just like TSC and TCD on the other hand may maintain the 0.4.”

    This I agree with. But TCD maintaining a .4-.5 season average means it’s canceled.

    “Also, I still think there is good chance for renewal of both the shows!”

    Zero chance for TCD. SLIGHT possibility for BATB IF and ONLY IF 1) it holds its season average, AND 2) it’s true that CW can’t afford to cancel it due to lack of a replacement series. Neither is likely to be true.

    If BATB returns seriously down from the hiatus tonight, and does not rebound next week, it’s doomed.

  • Tom

    As I mentioned in my excessively long post on page 4, the CW is no longer in a position to keep carrying low rated shows on its schedule. The CW may stick with HOD and Nikita to retain syndication revenue. It could use that money to fund additional productions. However, renewing first year bombs like Carrie and B&B gets them nothing.

    This year was a transitional year for the network’s management. However, I doubt if the affiliates the CW doesn’t control are going to be receptive to another year of almost certain low ratings by most of the shows. The network had EOMD, Carrie and Cult blow up in its face. That couldn’t have been cheap. Another season like this one could easily take the CBS/WB joint venture down and the CW with it. I wouldn’t doubt if some of this is attributable to viewers avoiding the network because of its poor reputation. I’m fairly confident that the CW expected B&B and and at least one other new show to garner ratings somewhere closer to Arrow. So, unless the CBS/WB suits have some ulterior motive, I can’t see how they could remotely justify keeping either Carrie or B&B on the CW’s schedule.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Tom: “The CW may stick with HOD and Nikita to retain syndication revenue. It could use that money to fund additional productions.”

    One correction: The CW doesn’t get the syndication revenue. WB and CBS do. Unless they pour that back into investments into the CW, the CW gets nothing for further production other than whatever profit they’re actually making per season. Since I suspect they aren’t making much profit, if any, my guess is probably WB and CBS might actually pour some of the syndication profit into it – for now at least.

    So it’s six of one, half dozen of the other. But the process is important – there’s no guarantee WB and CBS will keep doing this if the CW can’t come up with decent shows. OTOH, the blame for that would appear to fall on WB and CBS for coming with up with crap shows they then offer to the CW. The CW just puts them on the air and watches them fail… :-)

  • Melanie

    @Tom I mostly agree with you (the long post on p 4) but this season was really Pedowitz’ first programming season. Last season he still was dealing with Ostroff’s pilot choices and schedule. His main acomplishment in his first real year as Network Pres was to launch a modest hit and create a successful Wednesday night line-up. Now he has 3 successful M-TH programming hours instead of the one (TVD)he was left with. If he can revamp another night (obviously Monday or Tuesday) this coming season and continue to move away from the Ostroff-teen-dream toward the broader genre programming that is the only thing working for the CW — the network will finally have some momentum.
    I think that he will concentrate on building one new night, like Arrow this year, one night will have the hot new show with the best prospects and the other will carry HOD and possibly another new show with modest expectations or BATB.

  • Maggie

    TCD is actually not bad. It’s a little slow-moving though and not super soapy, so I can see how a younger audience would get bored easily. It also doesn’t help that Sarah Jessica Parker basically dissed it. AnnaSophie Robb is great though. I think she plays a pretty convincing young Carrie.

  • Tom

    If the CW axes Carrie and B&B, look for it to bring in some indie productions next season. The network will inevitably see some of its new shows fail and I doubt if it has enough pilots to fill the resulting void in its schedules. The big risk there is that the CW suits will bring aboard another LA Complex. Another fiasco like that will really seal their reputation as losers. It still baffles me, though, how an outfit like the USA Network can create a formula for developing a plethora of successful light entertainment programs while Arrow represents the CW’s only recent success.

  • Shirley Marquez

    What The Carrie Diaries doesn’t have is a lead-out. 90210 is so weak this season that it has been giving TCD no help. Beauty and the Beast, in contrast, gets the benefit of the strong audience for The Vampire Diaries. That makes it a bit harder to assess the native strengths of the two shows.

    Another factor that is hard to judge from the outside is the amount of revenue that the network gets from revenue other than the original broadcasts. Some CW shows have large online audiences. They do very prominent product and song placement; those may represent a significant source of network income. And finally there are the international sales of shows.

  • Shirley Marquez

    A big problem for The CW is that their ratings are so dismal it’s difficult for them to even get people to sample a new show, especially one that doesn’t appeal to the viewers of The Vampire Diaries or Arrow, the only two shows they have that even resemble success.

    I think the network may have to make a major investment in a statement show to get people to take a new look at The CW. They’ll also have to do a fair amount of promotion on networks other than their own; the value of all those promotional spots on The CW is modest because hardly anybody sees them.

    I still think they missed an opportunity last year; they could have picked up Terra Nova. If they could have convinced even half of its Fox viewers to come over it would have had double the ratings of The CW’s best shows – they would have taken a horrible financial bath but it would have gotten people to pay attention to the network.

  • Tom

    @ Shirley

    You right about the CW’s online audience. It appears that up to about 20% of the network’s audience sees its programs through a digital platform. We know that the CBS/WB joint venture signed some lucrative deals with Hulu and Netflix. Some say the latter four years deal is worth around $1 billion, although I believe Mr. Gorman has questioned the accuracy of that estimate. However, its the other 80% of viewers who see the CW’s programs through the network’s affiliates that I’m curious about. CBS owns a few of those affiliates, but i have absolutely no insight into how the independent affiliates feel about what’s currently going on. While CBS/WB is making money on digital and overseas sales, I’d speculate that the affiliates are taking a hit on ad revenue due to the network’s low primetime ratings. So, I’d really like to be a fly on the wall during the next network affiliates meeting. Unless things improve, I’ll bet it’ll be a tough sell when it comes to getting the affiliates to buy the network’s programs.

  • Danielle

    @andri If you haven’t watched BATB you should try it. The show picked up momentum around ep 5 and has been getting better and better each week. Last nights ep was AWESOME!! And next weeks looks equally as good!! There are so many possibilities on where the story will go now! Thursdays at 9 is the ONE programing I look forward to the MOST! Try it, form your own opinion.

  • Kevin

    I bet the CW would love to have The Secret Circle or Reaper right about now since all their other shows are failing.

    Those are two shows which CW pulled the plug way too early.

  • Watcher

    @Davis

    One Tree Hill wasn’t cancelled, it was given a final season (a season 9) and ended on it’s terms.

    Never watched Gossip Girl, but it also got a final season and got it’s closure so it ended too, not cancelled.

  • Spence

    Renewed
    Supernatural
    The Vampire Diaries
    Nikita
    Arrow
    Beauty and the Beast

    Cancelled/Ended
    Gossip Girl
    Emily Owens, M.D.
    90210
    Cult
    The Carrie Diaries

    New series
    Oxygen
    The 100
    The Originals
    The Tomorrow People

  • JimTV!!!

    @Spence What do you think they will do with Hart of Dixie?

  • Mike

    I can see TCD being renewed, even though it will need some serious retooling to get a full second season. As a die-hard SATC fan it really took a lot for me to grow into this show because it’s actually NOT a prequel. Unlike BATB, TCD is consistent in its ratings, although Ringer was also pretty consistent. The CW seems to be mainly interested in genre shows, so they have to have to have something to pair with HOD. TCD will stick around, I predict.

  • Andrew

    I think many of the TCD fans are trying to say that BATB only pulls a .5-.6 when their lead in is the highest rated show on The CW, which has lately pulled a 1.1-1.2, whereas, as you said, TCD does have some what of a lead in, but retains more than half the lead in. BATB sometimes barely pulls half TVD audience, which isn’t good due to the fact that they are both the same genre.

  • Mike

    Even though TCD is not a true prequel to SATC (it’s based off of the book of the same name, which was published in 2008 or 2010, SATC was very loosely based off a book published in 1996 and took very dramatic turns from the book), I predict TCD will get the renewal because it’s part of a very large, successful franchise. Look at 90210, realistically it could have been cancelled after 3 or 4 seasons, but giving it 5 gets it to syndication. If it weren’t part of a very large successful franchise there’s no way it would have held on for five years. That being said, CW needs to do some serious retooling with TCD… it will have to be paired with HOD since they will be only non-genre shows on the network. TCD would fare even worse paired with a genre show. It’s too bad they didn’t shop TCD to a network. I realize HBO has Girls, but I feel like TCD would have stood a better chance. I won’t be totally surprised if TCD is cancelled, but I’ll be surprised if it’s cancelled and BATB isn’t.

  • 20mg

    Monday

    8: The Selection (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday:

    8: Arrow
    9: The Tommorow People (new)

    Wednesday:

    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Thursday:

    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (new)

    Friday:

    8: Nikita
    9: Beauty and the Beast (13 episodes)/ Repeats

    comments?

  • Bizarro

    I hope the final ratings don’t get me for saying this but I thought Beauty was so good last night but I also thought wow its probably going to go down. I was so surprised that it retained a .5. Especially since most shows went down that night and Beauty had just returned from a two week hiatus. I’m starting to realize that Beauty and TVD has its OWN audience. No matter what similarities they share. Yea Beauty went down but there have been some weeks where TVD would fall like last night and Beauty would STILL be stable. Now since Beauty and TCD are fighting to the death, the CW will have other factors in place. I’m seeing that Beauty has been airing in about 20 countries as of March 2013 while TCD has aired in NONE yet, I heard its suppose to air in a few places BUT the CW will make there final decision in about a month or two. Beauty is cheaper not only since it films in Canada but also since their are only 6 main characters that film in the present compared to 9 that film in the 80′s in NY. Also, will people shut up about HOD needing TCD to be paired with it. Since the CW has 9 pilots they are bound to have something for HOD next year. If the CW is using a scripted drama to go with Nikita then Beauty is it. Beauty is cheaper for the CW to promote, I’ve seen that the CW has to put a ton of more effort to promote TCD than Beauty. They can have your “internationally good” night and the shows do have similarities. Both though iTunes sales are pretty bad, but Beauty is #98 on the bestsellers and TCD is #159 (whith the recently cancelled 90210) Beauty still has an edge over TCD for this years pity renewal, so don’t go counting it out just YET! Also this just occured to me, the CW cancelled Emily Owens for getting stable at .4. Now why would they renew a show that is getting the exact same demo as a scripted show they cancelled this season? TCD right now isn’t going to be renewed unless it goes up. If the CW does do a pity renewal, they will give it too Beauty if they don’t then BOTH will be cancelled.

  • Angellica .T.

    Renew the secret circle please

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