CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the cancellation bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

  • Georgia

    TCD is a good show its the only reason why I watch CW…

  • Brandy

    @Glue, youre being absurd if you think Originals WoNT air after VD ,because it 100% WILL.CW wants a show to keep VDs audience and Originals will do that, thats the whole it came about.Plus, VD and HoD are not similar at all and CW puts similar shows together for the most part.Look at this season
    Mon GG, CD,90210 _teen soap/teen drama
    Tues: Hart of Dixie Emily Owens MD _doctor show/medicial soap
    Wed Arrow SPN _ hot guys taking down bad guys(though SPN is more demon bad guys but still.)
    Thurs VD BATB _ fantasy romance drama shows about forbidden love between a beautiful human girl and a supernatraul creature
    Fri Nikita Cult _ tracking down and taking down bad guys Though Nikita is more spy/action show and Cult more thriller/horror/mysteryshow)

  • Lifey

    “Company Town” starts shooting today in Virginia. The show is looking for militaries extras.

  • Bobby

    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: The Carrie Diaries

    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: Supernatural

    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

    The 100
    The Selection

  • JacobYates

    @Angellica T


  • halloween

    cancel the cw, bring back the wb :)

  • JacobYates

    @Angellica T

    For the love of God, MOVE ON!

  • Amanda

    Last weeks numbers for BATB weren’t complete. TVbythenumbers didn’t factor in the numbers from its Saturday’s airing due to the preemptions on Thursday. In other words, BATB’s got a 0.5 for Thursday with missing markets, which aired the episode on Saturday.

    Why hasn’t anyone here made any mention of that?

  • Charmed

    @Amanda Maybe because the markets that showed it on Saturday make a very very very small percentage of total viewers.

  • Tom

    The final Thursday ratings for B&B you’re referring to are not intended to serve as the last word on that program’s performance. Most networks use Nielsen’s Live Plus service to track ratings. Live Plus looks at who watched shows on their DVRs within three major categories: Live-Plus-Same-Day, Live-Plus-Three and Live-Plus-Seven. You may be able to find some comfort in the latter two categories, if you can find where they’re reported. However, according to TVBTN, networks are more influenced by the Nielsen C3 ratings which measure the ratings for average commercial minutes in live programming plus three days of DVR viewing. These are apparently unavailable to the public. I don’t know how time shifting a live broadcast fits into this scenario. For example, whether it counts as a rerun or not. But I doubt if the networks are oblivious to the effect that preemptions by local affiliates have on a primetime program’s ratings.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Do we know which markets BATB was missing in AND how much those markets are capable of affecting the national ratings (not all markets are equally influential)?

    This being a one-time thing, unless it happens frequently, I’d think it’s unlikely to have an overall impact on the reported rating or the season average.

    Bottom line: BATB needs to KEEP its current season average – which means being stable in its weekly ratings – for the remainder of its season if it wants ANY shot at renewal. If the season average goes to a .5 or lower, it’s doomed.

    TCD is utterly doomed. There’s no way a show with its season average in its first season gets renewed. The CW would have to be insane to do that (or the show would have to be subsidized by someone for some reason, which is equally highly unlikely – so I don’t even know why I offer it as an option.)

  • Shirley Marquez

    @Tom: the affiliates probably are unhappy about the poor ratings and ad revenue, but where are they going to go? The days when a true independent could get decent prime time ratings with movies or reruns are long gone, and the smaller networks they could affiliate with (ion, MeTV, MyNetworkTV, RTV, This TV, etc.) would do even worse than The CW. The only alternative likely to get better ratings would be Univision, but that’s probably already taken in any market with a large Latino population.

  • Shirley Marquez

    One more factor: a number of shows on The CW appear to get a large ratings boost from delayed DVR viewing. Part of this may be that CW shows are people’s second choice of viewing and they watch something else live; another part may be that the young adult audience that The CW targets simply doesn’t stay home and watch TV during prime time.

    Normally networks aren’t interested in those views because people aren’t watching the ads. The CW uses product placement and music placement very heavily so they’re not quite so unhappy about that. The CW has also been aggressive about booking special extended movie previews and similar things into commercial breaks, presumably hoping to draw more viewers into seeing at least some of the ads.

    Perhaps The CW has to be viewed not so much as a current success, but a laboratory for figuring out how to make money in a future where conventional TV advertising is dead. The revenue streams will be advertising inside the shows, and advertising sufficiently compelling that people will watch it willingly like the special movie previews or Super Bowl ads.

  • Tom

    @ Shirley

    Most of the CW affiliates are owned by broadcast corporations that typically own substantial numbers of other stations that are affiliated with different networks. These corporations have the connections and financial resources to replace the 10 hours of weekly CW programming. There’s nothing sacred about network programming.

    I’ve given up on the idea of trying to compare low rated CW programs to determine which is likely to be renewed. That’s because the CBS/WB joint venture behind the CW isn’t following a business model that benefits its affiliates. If that were the case, then only the CW’s top three programs would be renewed. The fact that Nikita was renewed this year for syndication purposes suggests that CBS/WB will renew a low rated program to the detriment of its affiliates if it sees a profit through syndication, overseas licensing or digital sales. Other networks may also follow that model to an extent, but 70% of their schedules don’t consist of shows at or below the 0.6 demo.

    As I’ve stated previously, 80% of the CW’s viewers watch its shows through the network’s affiliates. That makes affiliates crucial to the CW’s future. The key affiliate is Tribune Company which owns 14 stations located in the most significant major media markets. Tribune just emerged from bankruptcy protection after four years. It’s financially weak and is a potential take over target. The CW’s current programming practices sure won’t strengthen Tribune’s shaky bottom line. If that keeps up, I don’t see why Tribune would stick with the CW.

    In short, when it comes to programming, there’s no rational explanation for what the CBS/WB joint venture or the CW is currently doing. I get the impression that the joint venture may just be in business to make short term profits off of marginal shows. If that’s the case, then its affiliates need to start looking elsewhere for programming. The only remedy for the CW’s poor ratings is for CBS/WB to spend more on developing new shows and possibly bring in independent productions to cover gaps in the primetime schedule. We’ll see if that happens. However, if one or both of the CW’s currently underperforming freshman shows remain on the schedule, it signifies bad news for the network’s affiliates.

  • Bess

    Please don’t cancel The Carrie Diaries or Beauty and The Beast. Those are my top 3 including The Vampire Diaries shows that i watch on the CW.

  • Jaime

    I love. TCD hope we get to see a season 2 :):):):):)

  • whogivesacrap

    i don’t like TCD. it’s boring. really. -.-
    wish apartmen 23 wasnt been cancelled. :'(

  • KC

    I didn’t like Sex and the City, nor did I ever watch more than a couple of episodes.

    But I totally LOVE the Carrie Diaries! It actually feels much more like a standalone show than a prequel. I’m sure there’s a lot of people in the 14-17 and the 18-30 demographic who really enjoy the show.

    A lot of older viewers (who were teenagers in the 80’s) criticize it because the fashions and hairstyles are nothing like they were in the 80’s. But personally, I don’t care. It doesn’t need some retro gimmick to be a great show. I really enjoy it, and I think today’s generations of viewers like the styles on the show better than all the non-feminine, old-lady haircuts you see in 1985 yearbooks. Forget realism! If it’s a good show, it’s a good show. I really love Carrie and Mouse in particular, and I’m very invested in both of those characters.

    I am crossing my fingers for a season 2! I can’t watch it on the CW airtime because I don’t have DVR and there’s other shows I have to watch that aren’t on Hulu, but first thing on Tuesday morning I am always watching Carrie Diaries!! :D

  • -Anonymous

    I think Pretty little liars should be cancelled.

    -Sorry, but it’s the truth…

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