CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Percysowner

    First, I don’t think TCD deserves renewal with its current ratings. I also agree that its lead in is greater than all but 3 shows on the CW. That said, BATB has a lead in that IS one of those higher rated shows, so it is not holding a higher lead and it is not doing that great. By numbers alone, BATB probably squeaks by as a renew, but neither one is really strong. If the CW had the money to drop more shows, perhaps both TCD and BATB would go, but with Cult totally failing and 90210 officially dead, one of the 2 will probably be renewed.

    Note: I don’t watch either, so I have no personal preference as to renewal. If the CW is moving towards genre shows, BATB does fit that description more than TCD.

  • THE OLD MAN

    And they’re bad bingo players at that! You’ve stated a couple hundred thousand times now (for what that is actually worth) that the affiliates are averaging 0.78 @ 7:30 & still they play their (losing) hand.

    Dig the pic BTW!

  • Brandy

    @Micheal, rumors are he’s been told to clean house and if CD gets and BaTB both get cancelled, that’ll leave 5spots for new shows,which was what they did the last two seasons and last season they cancelled/ended six shows and a bunch of the shows shared a timeslots this season.Hes not very Likley to renew CD at 0.4s in its freshman season and BaTB isn’t doing that well either given its leadin.You may be suprised by how many shows get cancelled.
    @Dillan, they can cancel all thier Monday shows and move an established show there to pair with a new show.They don’t have to keep low rated CD on just to anchor Mon.

  • RyanCanada

    CW would have had to pay alot for the right to TCD and its not paying off, so that is done like yesterdays business, i want BATB renewed

  • Jade

    Although I see the logic in pairing up HoD and TCD, BATB which was a repeat held on to most of the HoD audience when paired up last week. I never thought those two series would be compatible but clearly it was.

  • Danielle

    @Charmed….clearly you are a TCD fan since you only ever bash BATB! Have you ever watched it?! Probably not. It’s not BATB fault that TCD is not doing well, no need to be so rude.

  • poweranimals

    There’s no logical reason why the Carrie Diaries should be renewed over Beauty and the Beast and I highly doubt CW will cancel both.

  • Danielle

    I took some time to look up these new pilots for the CW, and I don’t see what some of you are seeing! Personally the only ones that might catch my interest would be The Tomorrow People and The Originals. The rest are not something I would likely watch.

  • JacobYates

    @Bill
    Stating that TCD does have a lead-in of about .78 just gives the desperate fans more ammo. I they will probably be spouting something along the lines of this by the season’s end.

    “It has much better retention than BATB. It’s a sure renewal now.”

  • Dan

    @Bill – I agree also, I believe The CW will save one of TCD & BATB. They arent in a position yet to only bring back 5 returning dramas and have 4 new series.

    The CW has new and promising pilots but its very likely they could just premiere 3 of those in the fall and air 2 midseason just like this year.

  • Jarrod

    Though 90210 DID deserve to go based on it’s ratings, I highly believe that if TCD is pulling the same crap in it’s first year and THAT’S the kind of show that is meant to be the target audience for The CW then it should be canceled. The may be good (to an extent), but I only have time for it on my DVR when I’ve got nothing else to do, where as 90210 I’d at least watch live.

    Chances are that 90210 would have done better this year if it kept the time slot TCD got, but it didn’t and due to it having to BE the lead-in, it’s doing terribly and therefore does 90210 terribly. The time slot itself is pretty bad given that GG got the same ratings in the timeslot last year, but ultimately, teen dramas are out by now, while sci-fi, crime, triller, comedy and action are all in. Action and sci-fi work for The CW, so stick to the shows they’ve already renewed as well as HOD and Nikita. Keep HOD where it is, as it’s doing exceptionally well and has the loyal fan base to keep going. Nikita should be moved and tested on another night, however, what other show could do better for The CW on a Friday?

    IF The CW are interested in keeping another show, keep BATB, as I do believe that on a Friday or EVEN the Monday it could do better. Cancel TCD and Cult along with the rest (GG, Emily Owens and 90210), as 5 cancelations is enough for this network. Honestly, they’re stretching it enough as The CW having to have at least 4 shows airing in the fall and an additional 2 in the Spring if some fail.

  • Win

    @jade

    Didn’t Hod Get a .6 last week and that BatB repeat get a .3?
    50% isn’t much of a retention rate.
    Last week 90210 has 75% retention out of carrie and this week it had 50%.
    really not much to brag about there.

    A true example of a compatible combo would be Arrow and SPN.

    That said if one must be renewed it will be BatB. Why any of it fans would want it to go to Friday is beyond me. Do you want it to fail?

    Out of the three non genre pilots, I think Company town has the highest chance, followed closely by blink. One of these will end up paired with HoD. If the off chance they don’t get picked up, I see Oxygen OR BatB (IF IT SURVIVES) paired with Hod.

  • panda22

    I still think B&TB is this years The Secret Circle, ergo axed….I think Pedowitz will try a new show then order a second season for Beauty.

  • starship

    Enough with the whole ‘this year’s secret circle’ crap…BATB and TSC are not in the same boat at all. TSC circle had potential at the beginning but dropped like a stone in Spring + did bad in Live+7 + was expensive + didn’t do anything internationally. It’s too early to know how BATB will fair in the spring, but one major difference is it didn’t start as a major hit. It was an underdog that all critics hated which had surprisingly good premiere numbers but after that settled around 0.6-0.7. Yes, it dropped to 0.5 for a couple of episodes, but could still go back to those 0.6s which would be enough to see it renewed + it’s doing ok in Live+7 + is probably cheaper than TSC + has procedural elements + gets $1.5 million per episode internationally. If anything, it’s more comparable to Season 1 Nikita than Season 1 TSC. It’s still too early to call it likely renewed, but its chances are definitely not as dire as some people on here like to paint them.

  • han

    I love the carrie diaries!! more season to come

  • Dan W

    I think that The CW will either cancel The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & the Beast or cancel just one. For some reason, I don’t think The CW is ready to give up on TCD just yet so I fully expect BATB to be canceled. I think TCD could go either way. Hart of Dixie will be renewed and Nikita will more than likely be renewed. Cult is for sure canceled as is BATB IMO. I think the only real question is what The CW is going to do with The Carrie Diaries. While HOD seems to be a self starter and therefore doesn’t seem to need a companion show, I don’t know if they will renew TCD for the purpose of pairing it with HOD. That being said, I also don’t know if they are ready to completely abandon the teen drama and go with pretty much all sci fi/horror/action shows for their 2013-2014 schedule.

  • Dan S

    I think the CW needs to get a little bold. Take The Originals & pair it on Tues with Supernatural. Then they can launch new shows after Arrow & TVD. If BATB gets renewed put it on Fri with Nikita. HOD can return to Mon to launch a new show after it.

  • Melanie

    Fall:
    Mon
    8:00 NEW SHOW – The Tomorrow People
    9:00 NEW SHOW – The Hundred
    Carrie Diaries cancelled, all new night for the CW sci-fi-ish not romance

    Tue
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 Beauty & the Beast or NEW SHOW if Reign, Company Town or Blink go to series

    Wed
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Supernatural

    Thur
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals (Or NEW SHOW The Selection or Oxygen if Originals doesn’t go to series- romance centered sci-fi)

    Fri
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 ANTM & scheduled repeats in the fall

    Midseason: HOD or BATB will move to Fridays and a new show will debut on Tuesdays

  • Charmed

    @Danielle Yes I watched it, I was actually pretty excited that it got picked up, but I didn’t even last 10 minutes! It was so boring!

  • SS

    TCD is already unofficially cancelled. If the CW had any thought of maybe renewing it, then they would air the season finale in May. Instead, it is getting burned off in April before May sweeps start – just like Ringer last year. I don’t see how to interpret it any other way.

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