CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

-
One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Janus

    I’m more with Robert than Bill–see TCD and BATB both cancelled. And HOD safe. The CW needs to get aggressive and I think they know it.

  • TJ

    “BATB and TSC are not in the same boat at all.”

    Someone was kind enough to post the comparison of the yearly ratings to date for BaTB and TSC earlier in the week, and it showed that BaTB is actually doing slighly WORSE than TSC was at this point. I’m with @Janus and Robert that both will be canceled and the CW will go for broke with new programming next year.

  • Holly

    From the post:
    I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won’t cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don’t believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

    I’m will Bill on this, for now. I don’t think The CW will want to pick up 6-7 of their 9 pilots, so they’re more likely to give TCD or BatB a second season. Which one is still up in the air, but assuming the ratings stay as they have been, I’d give the edge to BatB. It has slightly better ratings and will be the only CBS production on the schedule. However, if BatB drops from its 0.5, I wouldn’t be surprised if The CW cancels both.

  • Dan

    Why do so many people keep Arrow and Supernatural together on their schedules?

    CW will clearly break the two apart, so they can give Arrow a lead out to a new drama and maybe Supernatural will be moved to Tuesdays at 9 so a new drama could air at 8 (Like how SPN helped launch Arrow and The Vampire Diaries)

    The CW isn’t keeping those two together. If they have high rated dramas then they would want to spread the wealth rather than launch 2 new dramas together.

  • Jonay

    I honestly don’t think The CW will cancel The Carrie diaries or Beauty and The Beast because 1st i don’t see them cancelling all their Monday shows 2nd they need a Friday @ 9:00 show and Beauty and the Beast is perfect.

  • Ginger

    Mon
    8:00 The Tomorrow People (new drama)
    9:00 Supernatural (new time)

    Tue
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 The Carrie Diaries (new night and time) <– This is the hour the network usually takes risks in Veronica Mars, Reaper, The Pussycat Dolls, Ringer, Life Unexpected…

    Wed
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 The Selection (new drama)

    Thur
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals (new drama)

    Fri
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Top Model / Beauty & the Beast (new night in October)

  • Holly

    @Dan,

    Why do so many people keep Arrow and Supernatural together on their schedules?

    Probably the “if it’s not broke don’t fix it” principle.

  • Dan

    My guess is this schedule

    Monday
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 The Carrie Diaries (13 eps) or New Drama (Oxygen)

    Tuesday
    8:00 New Drama (The Selection or Hundred)
    9:00 Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 New Drama (The Selection or Hundred)

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 ANTM / Repeats

    The only reason I think CW would keep Carrie Diaries is that I dont think they would have 4 new dramas on their sched. I cant see any possible scenario where BATB returns, its clearly the Secret Circle or Ringer of this year.

  • Dan

    @Holly – Thats the reason I was going with too. People think “If its not broke don’t fix it”, but thats the thing. Besides Wed, and Thurs at 8, CW’s entire sched is broke. So why not spread the wealth?

  • samurai99

    Personally I was counting on BatB ratings implosion more than the slightly worse lead-in to keep TCD around. Ah well, I don’t really care either way.

  • Holly

    @Dan,

    I don’t really speculate on schedules, but I have to imagine The CW would hesitate to risk Arrow’s momentum by pairing it with something less certain. Doesn’t mean they won’t, but that question will come up.

  • maxwell

    BATB airs after the big HIT of the CW: TVD! So it should have more viewers than that! I think BATB iS The Secret Circle 2.0! and TCD is Hart Of Dixie 2.0.! Like HOD last year (and this year), the show has its own public and has no lead-in! it’s steady for the momment! I think TCD has an edge over BATB!

  • Dan

    @Holly – Its a risk that The CW needs to take to improve there schedule, Tuesday is horrible, Monday is worse, they cant count on brand new shows to help these nights. Well see what happens when CW makes their schedule.

  • Holly

    @Dan,

    Maybe. I was just offering a reason why they might not.

  • Bad Wolf

    I agree with Holly and thus Bill. Putting aside all the lead-in/retention nonsense, TBATB’s ratings are better – albeit slightly – than TCD’s. Period.

    Why on Earth should people who watch TVD should ALSO watch TBATB ? The only case where the retention bingo card can be used is with NCIS and NCIS:LA, because they’re basically the same show (and I’m not saying this in a good way).
    Furthermore, as someone already pointed out, at the end of the season, TBATB will be closer to syndication than TCD and finally, while it could mean nothing at all, TCD’s april season finale certainly doesn’t bode well for a renewal (Ringer comes to mind).
    And finally, I’m not a TCD fan, and not a BATB fan either. I’m just interesting in their numbers, in how The CW will handle the situation, and in the impact it could have on Nikita, the only show I’m remotely interested in on the network.

    @Dan

    A case could be made for retention since Supernatural’s numbers significantly improved after Arrow, but since it also airs on a new night, it’s hard to say.
    But your idea of trying something new after Arrow makes sense, I think. While I don’t believe in retention, I think that, for a season premiere, fans of an established show are likely to check the show airing after, especially if it’s new.

  • Abigail

    This is how it should go

    Monday
    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Tuesday
    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

    Mid-season:
    The Hundred

  • halloween

    Cancel both TCD and BatB….its do-or-die time for the CW

  • Pepper

    Is it possible that all the shows except Cult will be renewed? With GG gone, Cult DOA, and 90210 and Emily Owens off the schedule, that’s already 4 shows and 4 new pilots that the CW will need to launch – is it realistic to think that they can launch more than that? Genuinely curious!

    That said, I’m pretty certain that Nikita and HoD are as good as renewed. The real deathmatch is between TCD and BatB now.

  • Wright

    Cancel TCD

  • Rachel

    TCD was always DOA. CW loves making bad decisions.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures