CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • halloween

    @Pepper why not chance it with 4 or more new shows….TCD and Batb have no chance to get higher than .4 next season…those are the facts….cw should risk it all

  • Dillan

    @Pepper:

    If The CW airs 3 new shows in the fall (which they will, 1 or 2 new shows will air midseason), then yes, both BATB and TCD can be renewed as there’s enough space.

  • starship

    @maxwell

    The having a lead-in argument is pointless. The fans of the first show can easily switch to another channel, there’s this thing called remote control.
    TCD isn’t the new HOD, it’s the new Ringer, huge promo, repeats of the pilot all week long, repeats of earlier episodes, etc. and it still flopped, and just like Ringer the CW is getting rid of it before May sweeps, never to be seen or heard of again.

    @TJ
    People keep comparing TSC ratings for last year and BATB this year, but fail to realise there are other factors as well. TSC was killed by the big gaps in its scheduling + it was the network’s top contender at the beginning of the season, so its fall must have hurt a lot more than BATB, since this year the CW was clearly a lot more interested in making Arrow and TCD a success (clearly failing in one of those attempts). Also this year, when BATB returns this week, it will air 9 episodes, with only a single one week break, thus giving it a chance to stabilise, if it doesn’t it will be cancelled of course, but that wouldn’t save TCD one way or another.

  • WB

    I think The CW should just expand their schedule!

  • frodo

    BatB is still on the bubble in my opinion but cannot fall any more. I can see them renewing this show and placing it on a Friday.

    Carrie is basically canceled at this point, it had all this sex and the city hype and it can barely manage a .4, soon it will probably fall to a .3 and there is no coming back from that. At this point almost 100% sure that Carrie is dead.

  • Matt

    I have always leaned more toward TCD getting renewed over BatB because I have always felt that whichever show gets renewed will most likely just be for show anyways. Both shows are obviously giant failures. I think BatB has obviously crashed more then TCD but TCD having its finale in April opposed to May, not being a genre show like BatB and considering that The CW COULD make BatB the new Nikita which will be dead and gone after this next season makes me think they will give BatB the sympathy renewal but fans of that show should note that it is only because their show has the luxury of being produced by CBS.

  • Z

    I would want to elminate Fridays completly and thus moving nikita to a weekday. And My guess is Carrie and BatB will be both cancelled.

    Monday
    The Selection
    Heart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    Tomorrow People
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Nikita

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    Orginals

    If they were to keep Friday, they would have to renew one of them.
    Monday
    Reign
    Carrie Diaries

    Tuesday
    Tomorrow People
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The Selection

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    Orginals

    Friday
    Nikita
    Heart of Dixie

  • Brandy

    @Dan, yes BATB isn’t doing great given its leadin, but its cheap,does well online,does well internationally,has a better season ratings average than CD,does well in Live +7,& is a genre show- the direction cw is mostly heading next season.It has yet to hit 0.4 while CD has three.Given how many shows are cancelled aleady, I wouldn’t be suprised if it was renewed. Ringer and SC didn’t do that well online, in DVr or overseas and were exspensive. That said, I wouldn’t be suprised if BATB is cancelled either,especially if falls more. They will NOT keep CD just to avoid rebudiling Mon night when they can move either HoD or SPN there and pair it with a new show.Pedowitz has rumored to have been told to clean house and with 5 shows already gone, that’s what he’s doing. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to put four new shows on in fall.
    @Jonay. First, they can cancel all of thier Mon. Shows and move a established show there to pair with a new show.They will cancel more than the five shows already cancelled and put 4-5 at least new shows on next season.CD is doing badly so there’s no reason to keep it and BaTB isn’t doing that great either given its leadin and a freshman show.
    @Maxwell, no CD dosent have the advantage over BaTB. They’re both freshman doing badly.However, CD has had four 0.4s, BaTB none yet.CD season ends before May which usually isn’t a good sign.CD is exspensive.BaTB rumors are that it’s cheap, does well online, does well in Live +7& is a genre show which is the direction CW is headed next season.CD is a teen show which cw is doing away with teen dramas.Further, BaTB has a better season average in ratings than CD.

  • yusei fudo

    The CW fall schedule 2013-2014
    Monday

    8:00pm:The Selection (10-13 episodes)
    9:00pm:The Carrie Diaries
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Mid season

    8:00pm:The Tomorrow People
    9:00pm:The Carrie Diaries ____________________________________________________________________________
    Tuesday
    8:00pm:REIGN
    9:00pm:Hart of Dixie
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Wednesday
    8:00pm:Arrow
    9:00pm:Supernatural
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Thursday
    8:00pm:The Vampire Diaries
    9:00pm:The Originals
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Friday
    8:00pm: Americas Next Top Model
    9:00pm:Beauty and The Beast
    ____________________________________________________________________________

  • Lmw931

    The Carrie Diaries will be cancelled, I’m a fan of the show but the ratings say it all. The CW will not renew a show that is getting .4′s in its first season, look at what happened to ringer, the show is gone.

  • Rachel

    Reign has no chance of being picked up. A period piece has no place at the CW. Lol.

  • Z

    I had no idea what to pick for Monday, so I just randomly put those two up.

  • Danigleek

    The CW fall schedule 2013-2014

    Monday

    8:00pm: The Selection (New Drama)
    9:00pm: Supernatural (final season)

    Tuesday
    8:00pm: Hart of Dixie
    9:00pm: Carrie Diaries (new time) 13 episodes

    Midseason

    Tuesday
    8:00pm: Hart of Dixie
    9:00pm: Blink (new series)

    Wednesday
    8:00pm: Arrow
    9:00pm: The tomorrow people (new series)

    Thursday
    8:00pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9:00pm: The Originals (new series)

    Friday
    8:00pm: Nikita (final season)
    9:00pm: Beauty and The Beast (13 episodes) 22 if the ratings are good

    The 100 would be in midseason replacing the series that will have the worst ratings.

  • DonnaT

    @ Holly (and everyone else who speculates that Arrow & SPN will be paired together next season)

    That’s my logic, too, and more than the old saw “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. Arrow and SPN are currently the highest male skewing CWs on the schedule and they clearly gain momentum when paired. The shows fit demographically as well as Smallville and SPN fit together.

    I don’t think the duo will be split next season, unless The CW has a pilot that they think would be demographically very similar to Arrow/SPN otherwise way would The CW risk a demonstrably successful pairing on a risky new pilot lead out for Arrow that may start off well but rapidly tank TCD and B&TB or never be successfult like EOMD and Cult.

    That was the premise of the TVD/B&TB pairing, The CW hoped it would be successful too, and they wouldn’t need to worried about the post-TVD slot next season because The CW would know they had two solid nights for next season, renew stable performer HoD for S3 for one night and renew/keep Nikita on Fridays for syndication purposes.

  • Spence

    Renewed
    Supernatural
    The Vampire Diaries
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie
    Arrow
    Beauty and the Beast

    Cancelled/Ended
    Gossip Girl
    Emily Owens, M.D.
    90210
    Cult
    The Carrie Diaries

    New series
    Oxygen
    The Originals
    The Selection
    The Tomorrow People

  • Tom

    The CW is currently the Black Hole of television programing. Once a program its its schedule, it pretty much disappears. Sure, various programs have their fans, but even the highest rated three attract comparatively few viewers. Worse, two of those – TVD and SPN – are older programs that are showing their age.

    The extent to which the CW’s reputation has diminished is evident from the fact that viewers for the most part didn’t even bother to tune in to the Carrie and Cult premiers. Viewers also rejected EOMD and B&B. The latter is noteworthy only in that it opened to a decent audience and managed to rebound slightly after it returned from its hiatus. However, its ratings as quickly crashed again both times. This leaves Arrow as the network’s only modest success for the entire season.

    Producing shows that immediately bomb is a money losing proposition regardless of what the CW claims. The network may do better than break even on a few shows it syndicates or licenses in foreign markets, but that’s not the measure of business success. The appropriate measure is whether the CBS/WB joint venture could get a better return on its investment elsewhere. The answer to that is clearly yes. The CW has to be losing substantial amounts of domestic ad revenue in addition to running up production costs on cancelled first year shows. Worse, it’s reputation may actually be keeping viewers from watching its better programs. For example, I suspect that Arrow could easily achieve 1.5 or higher demos on a more respectable channel. Since the network’s affiliates are likely losing potential ad revenue as well, it’s questionable how long those the CW doesn’t control will tolerate the status quo.

    Last season was Pedowitz’s first year at the helm of the CW. So, it made a certain amount of sense for him to keep some low rated programs on the air in order to buy time to plan the network’s comeback strategy. However, the network no longer has the luxury of running itself on the cheap by offering a bunch of obviously failed programs to its viewers and affiliates. Currently, the CW is failing badly. Without a substantial and rapid improvement in programming, its network is likely to come unraveled. So, all of this hairsplitting about whether one low rated show should be retained versus another is beside the point. The CW may retain Nikita and HOD in order to raise some syndication revenue. Otherwise, there is no business justification for keeping any but the network’s top three rated programs. What’s required is a substantial investment of money to restock the CW’s schedule of failing shows as well as to eventually replace fading ones like TVD and SPN. We’ll soon see how the CW addresses its current predicament. However, if Carrie and/or B&B remain on the schedule for next fall, we can assume that the CW is being driven by business priorities that favor short term financial wheeling and dealing over long term viewer interest.

  • halloween

    Renew these
    Secret Circle Season 2
    Ringer Season 2
    Veronica Mars Season 3
    Seventh Heaven Season 20

  • PurpleDrazi

    …i don’t see them cancelling all their Monday shows.

    I don’t quite get this argument. I mean, it’s not like Monday will just sit there empty if they do. They will bring in some new shows or rearange the schedule.

  • Billiam

    I think that if any network was going to get a makeover, ot’d be NBC. They’ve been due one for at least 3 years. Low ratings are expected by the CW but the money people at NBC can’t be happy with the numbers they are getting. Time To Clean House, starting from the top.

  • Hoyt

    The Carrie Ovaries is dead. I tried the show by watching the pilot. It wasn’t outstanding, and left me wanting a bit more. I guess that the male lead is the problem.
    Meanwhile, B&B is doing poorly despite lead-in and blah blah.
    Out of the three, Dixie is doing better. That said, it’s the typical CW slaughter round, and as usual, Dixie beats them all at last minute. Nikita is usually the one who ties the victory watching from behind.

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