CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Walter

    If they cancel both Carrie Diaries and BatB, then HoD is going to live on Friday with Nikita and The CW is premiering no less than 5 new dramas next year.

  • Heather

    The thing about renewing Hart of Dixie that Pedowitz should look at is that renewal would basically be a 2 season committment due to syndication at this point. I don’t see anyone else pointing that out here. I can see why Bill would have bumped it up to 4 faces but the reality is the question of whether the CW wants to commit to a show for two additional seasons that really shouldn’t have been renewed for a second season to begin with. The ratings are steady but they are steadily terrible. Do they really want to keep those ratings as a lead in for either Monday or Tuesday? If they move it to Friday ratings will decline. I think Nikita will be renewed due to syndication but the ratings have been a disaster on Friday (even for a Friday show). Does the CW really want two more seasons of disasterous ratings for Hart of Dixie on Friday?? While I understand Bill’s upgrade of the status of the show I just think there needs to be more discussion of what is essentially a 2 season committment.

    The Carrie Diaries should be cancelled. The show has been getting 0.4s for several weeks. Thats terrible.

    Beauty and The Beast should be renewed but for just 13 episodes initially. It would need to go to a new night because I think the CW will put The Originals after TVD. I think Pedowitz should renew it for 13 episodes initially, move it to a new night, and see how it does. If it bombs then by all means cancel it and replace it with a new show midseason. If it does well then pick up the back 9 episodes to make a full season order. I think it deserves a chance to either do well or fail.

    Hart of Dixie has already gotten a chance to do well or fail this season with its full second season renewal. It has not completely bombed but I don’t think it has been a success either. It’s audience has not grown. The ratings are steady but they are bad. Another renewal means a 2-season 44 episode renewal – a big committment when you compare it to a potential BATB 13-episode cancel it midseason if it fails renewal. If I were in Pedowitz’s position, I would cancel TCD because it bombed, cancel HOD because I wouldn’t want to committ to 2 years, renew BATB for 13 episodes only and either cancel it midseason if it fails and introduce a new show or give it the back 9 order if succeeds. I could hedge my bet on BATB this way but I wouldn’t bother with HOD because it already had a chance.

  • Daniel

    It all depends on how much the CW wants to revamp itself. If they want to play safe (which is obviously not working), I’d say renew them all. Pair Beauty and Nikita on fridays, Hart and Carrie on Mondays. If they want for a full makeover, move Hart to mondays 9pm, move Supernatural to tuesdays 9pm (tuesdays are the CW new death spot and only Hart managed to keep solid ratings there, and also Supernatural fans will follow the show wherever it goes), renew Nikita for syndication and cancel the rest. This is what I believe should be done if the network really wants ratings.

    Mondays
    8pm
    Hart of Dixie 9pm

    Tuesdays
    8pm
    Supernatural 9pm

    Wednesdays
    Arrow 8pm
    9pm

    Thursdays
    The Vampire Diaries 8pm
    9pm

    Fridays
    Beauty and the Beast 8pm
    Nikita 9pm

    Summer/Midseason 2014
    Top Model (Mondays 8pm)
    1 new show (Wednesday 8pm starting the week after Arrow finale)

    I only chose Beauty over Carrie because the last one is the exact kind of show that the CW doesn’t want for their image, given that “girly” shows (Emily Owens, 90210, Gossip Girl) are not delivering good ratings anymore and are all ending. Plus, I see in BATB a chance to survive (maybe if giving 0.4s every week) in the Fridays 8pm spot, just like Nikita.
    I know you all want to keep wednesdays intact because they’re such a good sucess, but I think the network will separate the shows to take a risk and maybe have a new hit show on Wednesdays 9pm or Tuesdays 8pm. Plus, as I said, SPN fans will follow the show wherever it goes, so they’ll still have 2 good ratings (besides Vampire) and the possibility of 2 more.

  • Cassie

    Both B&TB and TCD are done. No excuses. It’ll be laughable to keep these shows.

    My fall schedule.

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    New (this schedule is pretty much also a cursed slot like tuesdays and HoD will probably fail to retain ratings when it’s moved to 9p)

    Tuesday
    New
    Supernatural (Okay let’s be honest here CW should take risks and air Arrow & SPN separately, smartest move would be to put Arrow on the same schedule 8p Wed since it’s just the 2nd season and move SPN to Tues to FINALLY remove the death slot. WAKE UP PEOPLE THEY NEED TO REVAMP MON-TUE IF CW IS BEING SERIOUS TO MAKE THEIR NETWORK BETTER)

    Wed
    Arrow (I KNOW ITS A BIG QUESTION WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY REMOVE THE SPN LEAD IN BUT THINK OF IT ARROW GOT ITS FANS OF ITS OWN NOW TRUST ME IT IS TVD 2.0 AND WOULD BE A GOOD LEAD IN)
    New Show

    Thurs
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Fri
    Nikita
    The Secret Circle (The CW will renew this one. I could feel it. Do not even DENY!)

  • Cassie

    Heather please STOP with the HoD hate & looking at the future syndication & accept that B&TB already tanked. I’m sorry but I can’t help but side-eye at the potential comment. I mean, really?

    CW could actually cancel just ONE show now that Cult is DOA. I don’t see why would they cancel Dixie now. That would just be a stupid move- imagine if they are left with just B&TB’s 13 episodes and went to continue on cancellation.

    CW didn’t take a risk with renewing HoD, it held it’s audience since the premiere NONE can brag that it grew but NONE can say it’s tanking and for CW that’s something they can hold on to for now.

  • Cassie

    @halloween
    Renew these
    Secret Circle Season 2
    Ringer Season 2
    Veronica Mars Season 3
    Seventh Heaven Season 20

    Correction Veronica Mars Season 4.
    And yes, I’d rather renew that than any show on The CW now.

    A great move for the CW is to cancel their mediocre show, The Vampire Diaries and put Veronica Mars in it’s schedule. That being said, The Originals is only good because of Phoebe Tonkin, but tbh we’d rather see her on The Secret Circle!!!!

    RENEW THE SECRET CIRCLE!!!!!!!1!!! WOOO!!!!

  • Flare

    Monday
    8pm: The Originals
    9pm: Supernatural

    Tuesday
    8pm: Blink
    9pm: Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Selection

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Mid-season:
    Oxygen

  • chrisss

    Monday

    8pm- The Tomorrow People
    9pm- The Hundred

    Tuesday

    8pm- Oxygen
    9pm- Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday

    8pm- Arrow
    9pm- Supernatural

    Thursday

    8pm- Vampire Diaries
    9pm- The Originals

    Friday

    8pm- Nikita
    9pm- Beauty and the Beast

  • Cassie

    @Angellica .T.

    Oh wait, you’re right! Tuesdays would be a better return for their second best rated show of the 2011-2012 line-up The Secret Circle since it would obvs not do good on Fridays!

  • Cassie

    Other nonsense that people LOVE to point out is syndication. Like really, at this point I doubt CW execs would even look at the 2-season future pick up for HoD and cancel it just because of that. LOL. Their whole network is tanking as a whole, they need HoD & Nikita. Btw, even Nikita is in danger for cancellation so I doubt they are bothered with this whole syndication thing right now. What they need is a steady show not a show that only had good ratings from the start because of good lead-ins and hype.

    It’s not Dixie’s fault your show is having disappointing ratings in it’s first season.

    BTW I ALSO FEEL LIKE 90210 WOULD HAVE DONE BETTER ON THE 8P SCHEDULE DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Cassie

    Omg Angelica they would think we’re the same person don’t copy paste (BUT I AGREE RENEW TSC WOOOO!!!1!!!) I swear I can feel someone’s going to call us out. They are probably JEALOUS that The Secret Circle is superior in every possible way and on par with shows like Lost, Walking Dead & Modern Family. Ratings, cast, story lines, writing, acting etc etc.

  • Kavyn

    I don’t know why people think the battle is between BATB and CD. It’s pretty clear to me that they’ll both be cancelled.

  • Cassie

    GIVE 90210 A PROPER SEND OFF AND MOVE IT AFTER THE VAMPIRE DIARIES

    BRING BACK VERONICA MARS AND MELROSE PLACE

    THURSDAYS SHOULD BE 90210 AND MELROSE NIGHT

  • Tom

    @ Heather

    B&B is already in the best possible slot that the CW can give it. Next season’s Wednesday and Thursday slots are likely already filled. Friday is out because of low viewership. The 9 PM slots on Monday and Tuesday are prime time for new shows. If B&B can’t keep an audience at 9 PM it sure can’t serve as an 8 PM lead in for those. B&B looks like its pricey to produce and I suspect the the CW greenlit it with the expectation that it would earn ratings closer to Arrow than Carrie. I get that you like the show. However, it simply has no syndication or other prospects that offer any justification for keeping it going.

  • Angellica .T.

    Yea i have a feeling somebody is gone call us out too

  • Cassie

    I feel bad of Carrie tho lol. But sadly it doesn’t deserve to be renewed.

    OMG PAIR HART OF DIXIE WITH PRIVILEGED!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!

  • DonnaT

    *Facepalm* Angellica T and Cassie.

    How many times do you have to be informed that TSC is NOT coming back? Many of the actors have moved onto other projects.

  • Angellica .T.

    See cassie we were right about somebody calling us out lol

  • FLOP CW

    They will both be cancelled by may. BaTB is having a 0.5 after CW’s Strongest Show (in ratings) , and fell FASTER than last year’s The Secret Circle. TCD is a great show and doesn’t deserve its cancellation.

  • DonnaT

    GIVE 90210 A PROPER SEND OFF AND MOVE IT AFTER THE VAMPIRE DIARIES

    BRING BACK VERONICA MARS AND MELROSE PLACE

    THURSDAYS SHOULD BE 90210 AND MELROSE NIGHT

    Cassie, you’re now officially trolling.

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