CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JC

    Regarding the debate over Wednesday night, I’m going to side with those who believe they will not break up the Arrow/SPN duo. In fact, I’ll be shocked if they do, quite frankly. I get where the people who are arguing for it are coming from, but I don’t think Arrow is strong enough yet for one thing. It’s doing well at the moment by CW standards, but it’s not a hit on the level of TVD. And bouncing SPN around to yet another new timeslot after only being in this one for a year does that show no favors either. They work well together and the CW finally has a night that works. I don’t think they’ll mess with that.

    I think TCD is done and that HoD will probably be renewed. Have no idea about BatB but if it’s renewed I think it will end up on Fridays at nine after Nikita (assuming Nikita is renewed – my faith in the power of the Syndication gods is not as strong as Bill’s is :)). I’m also guessing that The Originals will be paired with TVD on Thursdays, but have no idea about Monday and Tuesday.

  • Z

    TCD should have one smiley face by now lol

    certain cancellation

  • SecretShame

    I know that I shouldn’t be surprised by any line of argument in the comments section here, but the notion that a network would be reluctant to renew a season 2 show for a third season because that would effectively be a two season order is lunacy.

    A fourth season for syndication is a very attractive additional option, not an obligation.

  • Chris

    Why not pair up Arrow and Nikita on Wednesdays. I’m guessing that would help nikita’s ratings go higher without causing a drop on arrow’s ratings. Just a thought.

  • Gillian

    @Heather, I simply don’t understand your logic regarding HoD and why it shouldn’t be renewed.

    If it were a choice between BATB and HoD, and BATB was clearing out-performing HoD, one might argue that because HoD’s ratings weren’t great, being closer to possible syndication wasn’t worth as much as betting on a bonafide ‘hit’. But there’s not a rat’s gonad of distance between the two shows performance at present, and so why not chose the one which is closer to possible to syndication and steady as a rock? Sure, the numbers aren’t fantastic, (though I’d contest they’re not ‘steadily terrible’ given this is the CW) but they are steady vs TCD and BATB. If I were going to bet the ranch which one wouldn’t collapse next season, I’d definitely pick HoD. They don’t HAVE to renew it for 4 seasons, any more than they would HAVE to renew BATB for a third season. They just can if they think it’s worth it for syndication purposes. As an option, that places it in a stronger position than any of the remaining CW shows.

    And if HoD’s ratings are ‘Steadily terrible’, what does that make BATB, since they are unsteadily not that much different on average? I’m sure if CW had the money, and a draw full of cheap shows which they were confident could outperform the mediocrity, they would happily cancel all the remaining shows. They just don’t seem to, and so why not hedge your bets with a show that, whilst not making you a fortune, is (reportedly) cheap and stable and may just limp on for another 44 eps to syndication.

  • Z

    @Charmed Yes I will call you delusional. TCD is reliable at .4 and getting less and less viewers each week??. Its dropping to less than a million soon. LMAO.

  • Noel

    So Its nonsense for Carrie but makes sense for Beauty and the Beast? Everyone has said that Beauty and The beast has ratings thanks to vampire diaries but without it, its doom to fail on another day. Yet Carrie does ok by being alone. I am not a fan of the show, I am just thinking logistics here. Carrie being paired with 90210 does not help it. Arrow and Supernatural are stable together. CW needs to pair their shows correctly so they can stick together. Hart of Dixie would be a better pair with Carrie. Anyway, I don’t think Carrie will be canceled, they could leave it there in case that one of the new shows fails horribly like Cult.

  • Mark

    Monday:
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries (13 episode order)

    Tuesday:
    8pm – OXYGEN
    9pm – Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – THE TOMORROW PEOPLE

    Thursday:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – THE ORIGINALS

    Friday:
    8pm – Nikita
    9pm – Beauty and the Beast (13 episode order)

    Midseason:
    The Hundred
    The Selection

  • AT

    I think The Carrie Diaries will be cut. I honestly just don’t think .4 ratings will cut it. And it’s been that way for about 4 weeks now. Beauty and the Beast had a .5 for two weeks. Before that .7 and .6. So we’ll see if it goes back up. I think it might.

  • MrPierreMazz

    I really don’t think that BATB benefits from its TVD lead – in… Everyone knows that the TVD fants don’t stay around and watch TVD lead – out because when TVD ends… the fans start discusing the episode and what’s coming next… I think its time that we understand that. Besides… i think that with 14 episodes in… the show has made its own fan base and it can stand on its own… altrough i do think that if its moved to friday… its ratings are going to tank big time! 0.2 – 0.4.. so… they should move it to monday at 9:00 as a lead out for tomorrow people or oxygen. That is just my opinion.

  • Danimals

    They shouldn’t move Supernatural, at least not yet, maybe in season 10. I think they should do a movie night on Friday and just move Nikita to a weekday. Both BatB and TCD will be cancelled. Which leaves room for 3 new shows. Which should be Originals, Selection, and Tomorrow People.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bill: “Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.”

    Oh, I HAVE, I HAVE! And I will continue to do if they dare bring that nonsense up again.

    Disagree that they won’t cancel BATB AND TCD. In fact, if I was the CW, I’d cancel HoD, too – but I agree they probably won’t. But they WILL cancel BATB. TCD isn’t even worth discussing any more. It’s dead for sure.

    BATB is doing far worse than TSC did last season. Furthermore, I believe it will collapse in the next eight episodes. If it does go down to a season average of .5 – maybe even .6 – it will be canceled just like TSC was.

  • James

    PREDICTION FOR CW LINEUP 2013-2014

    MONDAY
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – Company Town

    TUESDAY
    8pm – Supernatural
    9pm – The Selection

    WEDNESDAY
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – Beauty and the Beast

    THURSDAY
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8pm – Nikita
    9pm – Oxygen

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “BATB and TSC are not in the same boat at all. TSC circle had potential at the beginning but dropped like a stone in Spring”

    You sir are as ignorant as a Taliban. TSC ended its season with ,8 season average. BATB has a .65 season average at this time and that is likely to drop. There was no “drop like a stone in spring”. It moved from .7 to .5-.6 fluctuating and ended with a .6.

    “did bad in Live+7″

    Irrelevant.

    “was expensive”

    For which you have no evidence relative to BATB.

    “didn’t do anything internationally.”

    Which is mostly irrelevant.

    “Yes, it dropped to 0.5 for a couple of episodes, but could still go back to those 0.6s”

    While possible, I doubt it. First, the DST effect sets in. Second, I believe the show will do a Ringer and collapse over the remaining episodes. Of course, I can’t prove that until it happens. But the show is as crappy as Ringer is and thus I expect people will eventually dump it near end of season like they did with Ringer.

    What is worse is that the show is only doing a .65 season average. If renewed, it will probably drop twenty percent season to season and do much worse next season. I don’t see the CW taking that chance. A show has to do well in seasons one AND two to get a shot at season three. If it’s doing .5 at the END of season two like Nikita, it still has a shot. But starting OFF at .5 is not a good sign and that’s what BATB is likely to do in season two.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bad Wolf: “at the end of the season, TBATB will be closer to syndication than TCD”

    WHAT? They are both FIRST SEASON SHOWS! Get a clue!

    God, the NONSENSE that gets posted here…

    Unless you meant HoD…in which case it’s a typo and I apologize for screaming! :-)

  • Davis

    PREDICTION:

    Monday
    Company Town (new)
    Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    The 100 (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The Hunt or Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    ANTM/NIKITA (final)
    Beauty & The Beast (13)

    MIDSEASON:
    Oxygen

  • Anyanka

    People have to remember that moving shows to new nights costs some promotion money. It doesn’t make sense to move both Supernatural and Hart of Dixie to new nights, although moving to a different time slot on the same night is likely less costly.

    If the CW is feeling bold:

    Monday:
    8:00 PM – The Hundred (new drama)
    9:00 PM – Supernatural

    Tuesday:
    8:00 PM – Oxygen (new drama)
    9:00 PM – Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday:
    8:00 PM – Arrow
    9:00 PM – The Tomorrow People (new drama)

    Thursday:
    8:00 PM – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 PM – The Originals (new drama)

    Friday:
    8:00 PM – Nikita
    9:00 PM – America’s Next Top Model / Repeats

    Midseason: The Selection, maybe Reign

    HoD does not need TCD or BatB to pair with it. Several new shows have romance aspects to them that would work well enough. It is easier to move Supernatural to a new night and Hart of Dixie to a new time on the same night than it is to move both shows to new nights. Breaking up the current Wednesday line-up is risky, but the CW probably needs to take some risks at this point.

    While BatB could get a 13 episode order for filler for the fall or spring instead of repeats, I doubt that would happen. TCD is dead. It is getting multiple 0.4s, hasn’t even aired 13 episodes yet, and doesn’t fit with the genre direction of the network. If the CW really can’t afford to launch this many dramas in the fall, they could renew BatB for filler since it has slightly higher ratings. But again, I see BatB and TCD both cancelled, with 4 new dramas and ANTM/repeats in the fall, or, if necessary, 3 new dramas, ANTM/repeats, and one other unscripted/Canadian/repeats slot.

  • Davis

    @ Richard Steven Hack

    Whether he means it will get renewed or not, it is a FACT and not nonsense, that TBATB (22) will be closer to syndication than TCD (13).

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Heather: “The thing about renewing Hart of Dixie that Pedowitz should look at is that renewal would basically be a 2 season committment due to syndication at this point. I don’t see anyone else pointing that out here.”

    Maybe not in this thread, but it’s a given and I’ve said it before. If a show gets a third season, even with low ratings, it means the DECISION has been MADE to KEEP it for syndication, regardless of the ratings in the third and fourth seasons. This is what happened to Nikita and what has a SHOT – not a certainty – with HoD.

    “I can see why Bill would have bumped it up to 4 faces but the reality is the question of whether the CW wants to commit to a show for two additional seasons that really shouldn’t have been renewed for a second season to begin with. The ratings are steady but they are steadily terrible.

    The issue in a syndication renewal isn’t ratings. It’s the deal with the studio. If the studio offers a good enough deal so that the show remains profitable and fills a time slot, the CW will keep it on. Some more or less guaranteed profit (or at least break even) is better than risking on a new show.

    Also while the ratings haven’t been great, the season average of .56 is still higher than TCD and everything else except BATB (for the moment anyway) and the high performers. And stable ratings is a good thing. The average could drop to .5 like Nikita’s did and still justify two more seasons.

    Of course, one consideration is whether the STUDIO thinks HoD has the SAME syndication potential as Nikita. That’s something we don’t know and would control the offer made by the STUDIO to the network. If that offer isn’t good enough, the CW will cancel HoD.

    “Do they really want to keep those ratings as a lead in for either Monday or Tuesday? If they move it to Friday ratings will decline.”

    Yes, it will. But I’m not sure they WILL move HoD to Fridays if renewed. They might wait until season four to do that. If they renew BATB, they might move it to Friday instead.

    Again, if *I* was running the CW, I would cancel HoD along with Cult, TCD AND BATB. But I’m not. And since HoD has a SHOT at syndication – if not certain – I think they’ll keep it. Especially if it’s true they can’t afford to cancel ALL the low-rated shows. Then they have to keep it because BATB won’t make it to syndication because it will crap out in season two. And TCD has ZERO chance of even getting a season two.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “Ok, so TCD has a 0.7 lead-in. That still makes it a better.fighter than Batb, which last time scored a 0.5 out of TVD’s lead-in of 1.3! It’s exactly why TCD should be renewed and Batb cancelled”

    Oh, god, how many ways does this not make ANY sense!

    This show gets a .5 season average out of the best lead-in – the affiliate lead-in – and this guy thinks it should be renewed. He thinks that means it’s a “fighter”!

    Seriously?

    Get a clue, pal. .5 for a first season show – REPEAT A FIRST SEASON SHOW – SUCKS! I don’t care HOW it’s lead-in or WHAT day it’s on or WHAT it’s paired with, or WHAT any OTHER show on the entire network is doing!

    THAT RATING SUCKS! EVEN FOR THE CW!

    God, dude, get a clue!

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