CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


nonsense-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the Cancellation Bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart Of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “I think TCD will be renewed, call me delusional all you want.”

    You’re delusional.

    “BATB will soon be hitting 0.4?s.”

    On that I agree.

    “TCD is reliable and steady” – AT CRAP RATINGS! .5 HALFWAY through a FIRST SEASON show is CRAP – even on the CW.

    Yes, you are seriously delusional. In fact, you have no clue how TV ratings work – even on the CW.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Davis: “Whether he means it will get renewed or not, it is a FACT and not nonsense, that TBATB (22) will be closer to syndication than TCD (13)”

    Oh, please, get a clue. That means absolutely nothing.

    You need 88 episodes, meaning four seasons of 22 episodes to get to syndication.

    You ALSO need to MAKE MONEY in seasons ONE AND TWO to get to that third season where the decision is made to keep the show for syndication or cancel it. NO studio is going to offer a show at a low rate in season two just for syndication reasons.

    You need at least a .6 to get renewed in season one, and at least .5 to get renewed in season two (based on Nikita’s season averages.) If you can’t do that, the show does not get renewed.

    TCD is getting less than .6 on season one for sure based on its .5 season average to date. BATB is LIKELY to get less than .6 in season one based on its current .65 season average.

    NEITHER of TCD or BATB will ever make syndication because TCD is DEAD this year and BATB if renewed will be DEAD next year. If renewed, BATB will do LESS than .5 season average next year.

    Number of episodes only matters if the show is MAKING MONEY in its first two seasons.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    However, I WILL agree that if TCD only airs 13 episodes this year, it WILL take MORE than two more seasons to get to syndication even if had ratings. But that’s utterly irrelevant, because the show is dead THIS year. So who cares? It’s a pointless fact.

  • Amy

    These TSC fans are cracking me up. Move on already.

  • Kavyn

    I think people here are thinking the debate between TCD and BATB are comparable to the debate from last year between HOD and TSC. They’re nothing alike.

    TCD and BATB are both complete failures. If one of them gets renewed, it’s because they either need BATB to fill up the Friday at 9pm slot, or they need TCD as “back up” in case one of their new shows ‘unexpectedly’ fail (ie another Emily Owens).

    TCD is NOT comparable to season 1 of HOD. That is just hilarious. HOD was getting between 0.6-0.8 every single episode (maybe there was a 0.5 here or there, who knows), including it’s premiere. TCD is getting constant 0.4s. HUGE difference. TCD is not ‘stable’ in the same sense HOD is/was. HOD was stable enough, TCD is DOA.

    BATB and TSC are also not comparable. TSC maintained a 1.0 average or so right until the Spring, where it declined. BATB went from a 1.3 to a 0.7 after ONE episode. BATB is a flop, TSC had a chance until it flopped hard in the Spring.

    BATB and TCD are DOA. Even if they somehow survive until next season (ie CW needs SOMETHING to fill the time slot), it won’t last long.

  • June

    I agree with Kavyn. As long as TCD continues to get 0.4s and BatB continues to get 0.5s, their chances for renewal don’t look good.

    I’m probably in the minority, but even Nikita doesn’t look safe. Didn’t the CW cancel Veronica Mars after 3 seasons due to low ratings?

  • feinn

    3 seasons does not equal 4 for sure on cw, veronica mars only got 3 seasons…depends on shape of network

  • Alan

    I’m hoping TCD gets renewed, anything could happen. But BATB fans have to see if TCD is cancelled, that doesn’t mean BATB is safe.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Veronica Mars is in fact listed in Robert’s comment that the list of shows canceled after three seasons is a very short list.

    I can’t find any info on VM’s ratings except that one show airing during the State of the Union address in January, 2007, got a *2.5* rating! Imagine! A 2.5 rating on the CW!

    That was a season high, apparently. A previous episode got a 2.0, the one before that was 2.0, the one before that was 1,8, before that 2.4, and the debut was a 2.4.

    The season average in 2005 was allegedly 1.3 based on a post on a VM fan site I found.

    And THESE ratings were considered “dismal!” Now look at the CW!

    The CW had a press release about the season three premiere that said:

    Quote

    “The CW premiere of “Veronica Mars” retained more of its “Gilmore Girls” lead-in among adults 18-34 (77%, 1.7/5) and adults 18-49 (70%, 1.4/3) than “Veronica” did a year ago following “America’s Next Top Model” on UPN.

    “With “Gilmore Girls” as its lead-in, “Veronica Mars” delivered its third highest-rated telecast ever among adults 18-34 (tie), its second best telecast ever in adults 18-49 (tie), and its fourth most watched episode ever (3.3 million) since its debut two years ago.”

    End Quote

    By comparison, back in 2005, when VM was on, here are the season averages for the networks:

    Adults 18-49:
    ABC: 5.6/14 (5.1/13)
    CBS: 4.1/11 (4.5/12)
    FOX: 3.1/8 (3.3/9)
    NBC: 2.9/7 (2.9/8)
    UPN: 1.9/5 (1.9/5)
    WB: 1.2/3 (1.1/3)

    The VM comment by Berman on that day:

    Although ratings for … Veronica Mars (Overnights: #5, 2.7/4; Viewers:
    #5, 2.90 million; A18-49: #5, 1.2/3 at 9 p.m.) are an improvement from
    over one year earlier, retention out of Top Model of just 54 percent in
    the overnights and total viewers, and 46 percent among adults 18-49
    is still concerning.

    Also, the episode order was only 20 episodes, not 22. At its end it had only 64 episodes – not the 88, and still less the 100, it needed for syndication. Had it gotten a full 22 episode order for season three and season four it would have had 88.

    I can’t even believe it. Now we’re talking shows with a .5 being renewed!

    I think I have to invoke the Gunsmoke Rule in bringing up VM. The situation on the CW is totally different today. They can’t AFFORD to cancel Nikita if they want ANY syndication at all!

  • Cassie

    Damn, Veronica Mars was great! :(

  • lisa

    wow how times change vm was doing great back then. When was the last time any cw show did over 5 million in viewers bet it was the WB with buffy, charmed and smallville.

  • BATB FAN

    If it is between TCD and BATB, I think BATB will get renewed. Though the ratings are low they are still slightly higher than TCD. BATB also has a very large international fan base. In a review by CW president, he was very optomistic about BATB renewal because it has the most creative freedom. The CW has also been playing oncore episodes of BATB on tuesday night since cult moved to fridays; something they chose not to do with TCD or last years TSC. Not to mention the fact that BATB won the teen choice award for best new drama. The CW will most likley renew it, but move it to another night, mostlikly tuesday or friday.

  • BATB FAN

    Possible schedul for next year:
    Monday: (new show) (new show)

    Tuesday: (new show) Beauty and the Beast

    Wednesday: Arrow Supernatural

    Thursday: The Vampire Diaries (The Originals)

    Friday: Heart of Dixy Nikita

  • David Howell

    The only way HOD is cancelled is if they raise the white flag and go with their big three, Nikita, five new shows (which may include a reality show), and a rerun hour.

    In other words, HOD is getting renewed.

    Is The Hunt meant for summer, or could it air in-season alongside The Selection? I’d consider the latter, that’s Monday sorted relatively cheaply with very high compatibility. Obviously, The Originals to Thursday 9 seals another – as the TVD fans take to Twitter post-transmission (or switch to Grey’s?), a TVD leadin isn’t as good as it seems.

    That would leave two options:
    * SPN moves to allow another 9pm hour to get an 8pm-esque leadin. Then Arrow and SPN get new genre show leadouts and HOD goes into syndication quarantine Friday with Nikita. Comes at a heavy promotional cost, especially as HOD gets a de facto 44ep order this spring so needs the promotion, but gives the genre shows a good shot.
    * Wednesday stays together, and HOD and Nikita get new partners. Cheaper, but more difficult to make the new shows work, especially as a HOD partnership wouldn’t be a genre show.

    If The Hunt is just for summer, all-new genre Mondays would work better. If The Hunt works well in summer, S2 could then replace the first cancelled drama. Something on the new slate isn’t going to warrant a back nine, surely. You still have a problem pairing HOD, but the network is in no position to cancel it.

  • Danielle

    @Charmed Then you haven’t watched it lately, because it is far from boring! This weeks epp looks AMAZING!!!

  • SJ

    I have to give the edge to Beauty and the Beast, regardless of the lead-in. I can’t believe we’re even talking about a freshman show stuck at a 0.4 rating getting renewed! It’s ridiculous.

  • JR35

    “No lead in” is a bingo excuse, for sure. In fact, some even elan on that reasoning for post-8 p.m. shows, too. If a show has fans, what difference, really, does it make what show leads into it? They’ll put the channel on when it comes on. Maybe that’s a way of attracting a few new fans, but, on the whole, I don’t think it matters as much as some think it does.

  • Danielle

    @Bobby “I hope Beauty and the beast is cancelled for the sole reason that its in The Secret Circle’s old place. God, it still pisses me off so much that was cancelled…”

    Grow up! It’s not the fault of BATB that TSC was cancelled! Maybe you would enjoy BATB if you gave it a chance and then you would be able to get over the fact that TSC was cancelled. Time to move on! Am I gonna be pissed if BATB gets cancelled? Hell ya! But I’m not going to pray for the doom of whatever show takes it’s place, the cursed TVD follow up time-slot!

  • Dan

    The CW is breaking Supernatural and Arrow up, so thats definitely gonna happen.

    As for The Carrie Diaries, CW doesnt care about syndication potential, thery will either renew it as a 13 episode placeholer for a midseason show or they will cancel it and find something new. A lot of networks renew OK rated bubble shows in hopes they will grow. I’m not saying TCD will grow but CW has a lot of holes to fill.

    @Anyanka – Thats a possible schedule, most people could agree that Supernatural will be moved to either Mondays or Tuesdays at 9 where a new drama will proceed it and HOD will air another night.

    If Carrie Diaries gets cancelled and CW has only 5 returning dramas, I expect each one to air on a different night paired with a new drama (Save for fridays which will be reserved for ANTM repeats) It will be a risk for The CW but if President Mark Pedowitz (or Vice President Richard Steven Hack) want to do that, then hopefully it will pay off.

  • Danielle

    I think the CW NEEDS to put the Originals behind TVD because if it tanks, the CW will know that TVD is not the great lead-in eveyone thinks it is! (Mind you I personally hold no value in the retention nonsence!!) If The Originals can not make a go of that time slot, the CW needs to move TVD to 9 (which I have always felt it is more of a 9pm show anyway! It can be way too violent for 8pm!!) In which case I would put BATB at 8 with TVD at 9. But if BATB does get moved to a new night (which is more likely) I think BATB would pair nicely with either HOD or Arrow. If I could pick which night I would like to see BATB moved to Wed since I watch Arrow, but not SN and therefore have an hour between Arrow and Chicago Fire to fill, but a monday or Tuesday move would work for me too. However, BATB is the show I look forward to the most out of ALL the shows I watch, from ALL the networks, so I wouldn’t care what it came up against I would watch it and anything else would get the PVR demotion. Even Bones, and that’s saying A LOT for me!!!

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