CW: "'The Carrie Diaries' Has No Lead In" & Other Nonsense

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.42
90210 canceled 0.52
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.90
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural renewed 1.46
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

One of the more ridiculous Fan Excuse Bingo plays the cancellation bear sees in our comments is something on the order of "The Carrie Diaries has no lead in". That's complete nonsense.

Do the bingo players imagine that CW affiliates broadcast dead air at 7:30pm?

As a matter of fact, the local syndicated shows that those CW affiliates broadcast at 7:30 averaged a 0.78 adults 18-49 rating from Monday -Friday last week, that's better than all but 3 of CW's primetime hours for original episodes.

Other similar nonsense phrases to look for from the bingo players "it's a self starter", "it gets no support", etc. Treat those confused bingo players as you wish.

I was waiting for another week of stable ratings before moving Hart of Dixie to "likely to be renewed". Perhaps Robert was too. He beat me to it on Sunday. I pretty much agree with his HOD logic (2nd season show, ratings higher recently than TCD & BATB, CW won't cancel all 3), but differ a bit on The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. While I believe that the CW will cancel one of the two, I don't believe they will cancel both. More on that next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

  • Cassie

    “I have to give the edge to Beauty and the Beast, regardless of the lead-in. I can’t believe we’re even talking about a freshman show stuck at a 0.4 rating getting renewed! It’s ridiculous.”

    If you ask my opinion which has the most edge it’s TSC.

  • June

    A freshman show currently getting 0.5s is not much better. TSC wasn’t earning multiple 0.5s until late spring if I recall correctly, and it still got canned.

  • Tom

    @ Danielle

    Give some thought to the possibility that “Bobby” may be trolling. Besides, responding to that that sort of nonsense is pointless.

  • Julia

    No idea how VM got brought up, but perfect timing! Kickstarter to fund the VM movie was opened today!

  • Brandy

    @BatB fan, in April,another show will air reruns instead of BatB so it dosent mean much its being repeated, it just means theres a hole in the schedule.Also, the Peoples Choice Arads Win for it mean nothing to the network as its not helping BATBs ratings.

  • gerry

    sadly, i think tcd is gone. its funny, if it had been consistent with .5 i think it would have been renewed. but at .4 its only marginally better than 90210 was in its (now) last season. so i’ll enjoy it while it lasts.

    sadly for batb fans, i think they’ll cancel that as well. once cw moves it out of that timeslot, its going to pull the same numbers as tcd if not lower.

  • gerry

    also, i can’t believe there are people still babbling about TSC. MOVE ON PEOPLE.

  • Jarrod

    Looks like the Veronica Mars example may have to change for shows such as Nikita seeing as the movie will most likely be on it’s way. Chances for a Nikita film in six years? ;)

  • Rachel

    TSC fans, please keep trolling. You guys are hilarious.


    The only show i will watch on CW , this fall (if the network like the pilot) are : Company Town , Reign , Oxygen and The Originals.

  • Brandy

    @Dan, CW cares a lot about syndication potential.For one cause they have to make money in a lot of other ways besides ad revenue.For another, if they didnt care about syndication potential,Nikita wouldve been cancelled last season or be cancelled this season.Also, several cw shows that air(ed) on CW are syndicatef,:OTH,SpN,Smallville,GG,ANTM.

  • Blah

    They need to pick up No Ordinary Family!!!!!!!!!!

  • JacobYates

    I totally called that fans would be saying that TCD has better retention than BATB! I called it!

  • JacobYates

    Check the earlier comments for proof. But I totally called it!

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    8: America’s Next Top Model/The Selection (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    8: The Tomorrow People (new)
    9: Arrow

    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (new) 

    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: Repeats

  • JulieDawn


    They like you! They really like you!

    (And I really hope someone gets that reference)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BATB FAN: “BATB also has a very large international fan base.”

    Irrelevant to renewal.

    “In a review by CW president, he was very optomistic about BATB renewal because it has the most creative freedom.”

    That’s just laughable. Besides being spin from a network exec, it has show ZERO creativity throughout its season.

    “The CW has also been playing oncore episodes of BATB on tuesday night since cult moved to fridays; something they chose not to do with TCD or last years TSC.”

    Irrelevant. At best desperate attempt to improve the ratings – or maybe test in on another night, which they’re unlikely to do with repeats.

    “Not to mention the fact that BATB won the teen choice award for best new drama.”

    Utterly irrelevant since I can guarantee you ninety percent of the voters were female.

    “The CW will most likley renew it, but move it to another night, mostlikly tuesday or friday.”

    If moved to Tuesday, it will do lower ratings than it does now. If moved to Fridays, it will do MUCH worse ratings than it does. It’s likely to do worse than Nikita – if that’s possible (and it is.)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Compared to TSC, both TCD and BATB are doing MUCH worse. But TSC is GONE, folks! Fergeddaboudit!

    One thing researching Veronica Mars did bring home to me – the CW IS in MUCH worse shape than it was in 2005-2007 (including back when it was UPN and The WB.) But so are most of the other networks…but I’d say the CW is worse. I didn’t join this site until 2009 – over TSCC – so I wasn’t fully aware of how much worse things are now than they were then.

    Still, no show in its first season doing a .5 average is going to be renewed. Not when three shows are doing much better in both freshman and advanced seasons. Arrow proves the CW can still produce a show that can get more than one season. That should be their goal, since their goal is to produce shows for syndication by their parent companies.

    Which is why HoD has a shot at renewal since it’s the only show this season that can move on to a third season for syndication like Nikita did. It’s a hair lower in ratings than Nikita was last season, but it’s still way better than any of the new shows. Again, *I* would cancel it and replace it with a new show next season, but I suspect the CW won’t, especially if the claim that they can’t cancel all the low-rated shows is true. They need to get a syndication capable show out of each season.

  • Davis

    The CW should remake a WB show like 7th Heaven, Everwood, or even Charmed.

  • Tom

    @ BATB Fan

    “Not to mention the fact that BATB won the teen choice award for best new drama….:

    Take this back to the Beastling coven: Anyone with half a brain (which might barely extend to you) knew long ago that the PCA was nothing but a fraud. It’s the creation of a few adolescents pounding on the PCA virtual voting button over and over like a troop of monkeys on crack. Mr. Gorman pointed out at the time the PCA was announced that it was meaningless as far as the show’s renewal chances were concerned. Since B&B hit its lowest ratings after the so-called award, it’s evident to all but the most clueless that the PCA has no influence on audiences. Notwithstanding that, some of you Beastlings still persist in spouting off about the PCA or (even more ridiculously) the awards as if anyone other than your equally clueless counterparts would believe you.

    One of the many reasons Beastlings get attacked on this site is because of their adolescent fixation on spreading myths and misinformation in support of B&B. However, at this point in the season, no one is going to accept that nonsense. It’s just plain annoying. Accordingly,the next time you decide to hustle the PCA or some other artifice as part of your effort to promote B&B, do it on a Beastling fansite where most of the readers, like you, will apparently believe anything.

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