NBC: Three Sitcoms Could Be Renewed Besides 'Parks & Rec', But The Cancellation Bear Is Still Chicken

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-chicken
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash :oops: 0.65
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
1600 Penn :oops: 0.78
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.82
Go On :| :| :| 0.89
Whitney :| :| :| 0.90
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.95
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
The Office final season 1.43
Up All Night :oops: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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The Cancellation Bear is of the mind that Community, Go On and Whitney are all potential NBC sitcom renewals (Parks & Recreation is certain to be renewed), but he's not making the move yet. Chicken? Cluck! But Community's 1.9 premiere rating said "certain renewal" and two weeks later it hit a series low 1.1 rating. Its recovered since then, but the cancellation bear is still worried about touching that potentially hot stove again.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • @DiegoC

    what about “save me”? another goodwin games treatment?

  • TOM

    Renewed: Parks, Community, Whitney and Go On!

    The New Normal – MAYBE

    Canceled: Up All Night, 1600 penn and Guys With kids.

  • First Post

    It was good to see Community have a strong (for NBC) showing this week.

    I think it’s got a good shot for renewal since a) TBBT is a known powerhouse and really nothing scripted will do shockingly well against it, and b) it has less competition for ratings now that ABC has shot it’s Thursday nights in the foot. ABC is showing reruns after Zero Hour failed, so those viewers may be inclined to watch a *new* episode of something on another network.

    Even though this will help shows on all the other networks (and TBBT probably more than anymore), it will raise Community’s numbers relative to the rest of NBC’s lineup, even if it doesn’t help its numbers relative to other shows on at 9PM Thursday.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “what about “save me”? another goodwin games treatment?”

    I’ve heard nothing about the status of Save Me, but I could have missed something recently.

    No news, in this case, is almost certainly bad news.

  • Ryan Schwartz

    TOM, TNN is now lucky to get a 1.0 in the demo. It’s bear chow, as is 1600 PENN. And I strongly believe NBC will part ways with WHITNEY now. After a third season usually always comes a fourth for syndication, but even with a 4th, they’d need a 5th for syndication given this year’s episode count. COMMUNITY will be renewed if it continues around a 1.4-1.6 just because they can’t do better at 8. They can just leave the 8pm hour alone (COMMUNITY and PARKS) and work on 9-11pm. My guess?

    9:00pm – Michael J. Fox
    9:30pm – About a Boy (new Jason Katims comedy, the man behind Parenthood)
    10:00pm – Parenthood (always reliable around 1.8-2.0)

    Promote 9-11. Ignore promoting 8-9 as they always have in recent years.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “COMMUNITY will be renewed if it continues around a 1.4-1.6 just because they can’t do better at 8″

    There are perilously few places NBC can do better than that with scripted shows.

  • KT

    This is always my favorite Renew/Cancel Index of the week, since NBC is such a trainwreck right now.

    It astounds me that a show like Whitney could actually be renewed again (I’ve seen the show a couple of times, and it is just AWFUL). Only other show I can truly comment on that I’ve seen is Smash, and I can’t wait for that mess to be cancelled.

    Clearly, their ratings are hurting because of others like myself (that have a Nielsen box, which I do not): I’m in the critically important 18-34 demo, and watch nada on the network.

  • First Post

    @Ryan

    Be careful with your phrasing – “Promote 9-11″ probably got you put on a watch list!

  • Yessir

    Renewed: Go On, TNN, Community, Parks
    Cancelled: Whitney, GWK, 1600 Penn, UAN

    I dont understand why people are saying TNN will be cancelled. Though it is getting really low ratings, so is Go On… Ryan Murphy, DVR Rating, its Fall ratings are just some of the factors that will help TNN get renewed. It WILL get renewed even for just a short second season.

    Whitney, I’m not sure especially since Chris D’Elia has signed up for a pilot. We’ll see.

  • PurpleDrazi

    The Bear’s got enough on his plate right now. He’s content to just sit back and let NBC sort itself out. No chasing needed.

  • Leondre

    NBC should cancel of their comidies except for Parks and Recreation.

  • CraveRecords

    NBC has so many holes! At least they’ll have 4 hours of football and 3-4 hours of The Voice (I’d imagine) to take up a good chunk of the primetime schedule in the fall and the Olympics to do the same in February. Talk about a year to regroup!

  • TVDude

    I think Community will almost definitely be back. Although it did hit a 1.1, it’s the only show that has done that to make a comeback (on its own, Go On will no doubt do much better when The Voice returns, but NBC’s also smart enough to know the obvious).

    My guess is they will do something similar to last year with Parks getting a full season, Community, Go On, and Whitney all get less that full season.

    I think TNN’s toast, regardless if it bounces upward (it better) when The Voice returns. I think there’s a zero percent chance it would be given a Tuesday slot in the fall and without The Voice, we know how that goes. At least with Whitney and Community, NBC knows what to expect. If TNN can’t pull a 1.0 without The Voice on Tuesday, how would it do Thursday at 8 against TBBT? I don’t think we will ever get to know. If it does somehow come back, it won’t be at the expense of Community or Whitney, which will more than likely come at a cheaper cost (Community because it’s Sony, Whitney because it’s a multicam).

    I really don’t see Go On being in any danger. I know its ratings have been right there with or below Community recently, but the bounce it gets from The Voice will be enough from NBC. It might get thrown away next season though, somewhere on Thursday. NBC will no doubt use The Voice to launch a new show and it may or may not be a comedy.

  • forg

    I think they’re going to renew Community and Go On.

  • Ryan Schwartz

    Prediction:

    TUESDAY
    8:00pm – Happiness (Sean Hayes Multi-Cam)
    8:30pm – John Mulaney/Martin Short/Elliot Gould Multi-Cam
    9:00pm – The Voice: Results / New Sitcom (13) + Go On (13)
    10:00pm – Revolution (22) / Law & Order: SVU (13)

    Of course, this is solely based on my opinion of the most promising pilots. I also don’t think NBC should attempt Wednesday at 8 comedies next season. I also think NBC wants to stay in the SVU business, but the show is certainly getting expensive. 13 episodes would cut the price tag, and even at mid-to-high 1s, it’s a reliable solution for Revolution filler. I think NBC will plug Mondays at 10 with the other new JJ Abrams drama they have in development.

  • Peter

    Won’t Community be close to 88 episodes? I would think that would give it the best shot of any comedy other than Parks and Rec at renewal.

  • Michael1

    Don’t forget to factor in the bump that “Go On” and TNN will receive once “The Voice” returns. Just because networks choose to ignore retention rates doesn’t mean your predictions have to. I have a feeling that “Go On” will have a retention rate of over 30%, making it a lock for renewal.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Renew the 5 key dramas (Rev, Grimm, SVU, CF and Parenthood) along with Parks and Community (for their final season sendoffs), and cancel the rest of that drek. They NEED a paradigm shift with their comedies, they can’t keep the same kind of crap that’s gotten them such low ratings. I even watched 5 of those shows that won’t be coming back, but I gotta agree with common sense on this one. Throw out all the bad, bring in some new, and the “good” new will rise to the top.

  • Rebecca

    I think Parks, Community and Go On will return….but I really hope GWK does, too. I like 1600 Penn, but if it doesn’t return, oh well. I watch Whitney and TNN but don’t care about them. I’d rather the first four I mentioned come back.

  • tv#1

    Possible Fall 2013 NBC Schedule could be…

    Mon:
    The Voice
    Revolution

    Tue:
    The Voice Results
    Untitled Craig Robinson Project
    Girlfriend in a Coma
    Chicago Fire

    Wed:
    Untitled Rand Ravich Project
    I Am Victor
    Law and Order:SVU

    Thur:
    The John Mulaney Show
    Holding Patterns
    MJF
    Happiness
    Parenthood

    Fri:
    Believe
    Grimm
    Dateline

    Sun:
    SNF

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