NBC: Three Sitcoms Could Be Renewed Besides 'Parks & Rec', But The Cancellation Bear Is Still Chicken

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-chicken
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash :oops: 0.65
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
1600 Penn :oops: 0.78
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.82
Go On :| :| :| 0.89
Whitney :| :| :| 0.90
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.95
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
The Office final season 1.43
Up All Night :oops: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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The Cancellation Bear is of the mind that Community, Go On and Whitney are all potential NBC sitcom renewals (Parks & Recreation is certain to be renewed), but he's not making the move yet. Chicken? Cluck! But Community's 1.9 premiere rating said "certain renewal" and two weeks later it hit a series low 1.1 rating. Its recovered since then, but the cancellation bear is still worried about touching that potentially hot stove again.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Mark

    Sitcom renewals:

    Parks and Recreation
    Community
    Whitney
    Go On

  • Ultima

    @tvwatcher
    Correct me if i am wrong but their Fall lineup was done when NBC was still under GE well before Comcast took controlling ownership.

    Greenblatt took over in January 2011. The 2011-12 season was mostly made up of programming out of his control (with a couple of exceptions like Smash). The previous development cycle leading into this season was not however.

    Yes the NFL package is expensive but SNF is most profitable nfl programming

    FOX and CBS have the two premiere NFL packages and don’t pay that much more than NBC for them ($1.1 billion for FOX, $1.0 billion for CBS).

    FOX and CBS each have 13 exclusive national games a year (including the playoffs), while NBC has 21. However, the national doubleheaders typically outdraw Sunday Night Football and both FOX and CBS have 18 non-exclusive games as well as the more valuable playoff games.

  • Brian J

    @Kavyn:

    I’m having trouble getting an exact number, but NBC did order a lot of them and at least a few more than last season. Plus, it could still order more. For instance, as I am writing this, NBC is supposedly considering a late pilot pick up for a show called Bad Judge starring Kate Walsh of Private Practice. Whatever the case, I’m just not sure what last season necessarily has to do with this season, as needs are different.

    Then again, perhaps the huge failure of most if not all of its comedies means it will order more. It’s been stated or implied in a lot of sources NBC has ordered a lot of pilots (more pilots than usual?) for next season.

    As for Community and what might replace it, perhaps the answer is to not replace it with a comedy. Given its problems and the way I think it should pursue the solutions, I could see putting, say, “Believe” there and pairing it with Grimm or something similar, like The Sixth Gun or Bloodline, and perhaps putting something else similar at 10:00. It would be a sharp break for NBC, aside from the CW, which isn’t as much of a factor, no other network is airing a drama there. ABC might, but it might not. It could, with the right amount of promotion, get a decent enough audience.

    It could also try another comedy there. The Jason Bateman/DJ Nash show, called Then Came Elvis or Family Guide, sounds like it might be a good pairing with Parks, if only to work out the early creative kinks. Or, based on the same idea, it could put Greg Daniels Undateable there, as his shows usually are weak for the first few episodes and then get much better. Or it could put two new comedies there, but why would it, at least right away?

    I just think some change needs to be made. NBC isn’t likely to take down CBS for at least another season, unless that network implodes and it surges, but that’s okay. It could surge on another night and improve on its current performance by trying to go after a different type of viewer. As I’ve said, I really like the idea scheduling Grimm here, especially after giving it more exposure by putting America’s Got Talent on Thursdays over the summer.

    The only reason I would Community back on this night is it it was giving it a quick burn off, and even then, I’d still go with the Grimm/new similar drama plan, perhaps featuring something else new that was hyped during the Olympics to premiere in 2014.

  • Brian J

    @Oliver:

    Yes, I was wrong: Community is in part owned by NBC, at least according to Wikipedia. But that still doesn’t make it as attractive as Parks, which NBC owns without any other major studios.

  • Brian J

    @Tommy Mickens:

    That’s an interesting point in regards to The New Normal and The Voice. But then, given its troubles, wouldn’t it make more sense to put Hannibal after The Voice, just to try to create one more hit?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Still hoping Revolution will “die very badly” when it returns…Show is utter crap.

  • Brian J

    @Ultima:

    I’m not a sports guy, so I don’t follow football like most people do. Tell me, do CBS and Fox games usually outrank NBC football games? And what might it take for NBC to get more of the games for itself?

  • Brian J

    Random questions that I am sure I will ask again:

    1. Does anyone think NBC might be really bold and cancel all of its current sitcoms or renew just one of them, likely Parks? This would be a bold move, but aside from Parks and perhaps Community, would the creative community and critics really cry foul?

    2. Might NBC go dumpster diving and try to pick up sitcoms that other networks don’t pick up? You might wonder why it would to this, especially since some of the shows have odd connections to it (Jim Gaffigan’s comedy for CBS is pretty much the same one he pitched to NBC a season or two ago; Will Arnett is now tied to a CBS comedy but, of course, was in Up All Night), but networks make mistakes. Say what you want about Chuck Lorre, but if for some reason CBS doesn’t pick up Mom with Anna Faris and Allison Janney, why shouldn’t NBC give it a look? Right now, it needs something, anything to work.

  • Davis

    Dramas ratings at NBC are decent, and by decent I mean ‘working.’ So for next season, instead of 2 new fall dramas, I think NBC should premiere 3-4 new dramas in the fall.

    PREDICTION:

    Monday
    The Voice
    Revolution

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    Hatfields & McCoys (new)
    Parenthood

    Wednesday
    Whitney
    Betty White
    The Blacklist (new)
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community (final)
    Parks & Rec.
    MJF (new)
    Go On
    Law & Order:SVU

    Friday
    Dracula (new)
    Grimm
    Dateline

  • RTV

    Because Networks are in the business of making money and keeping the competition down. Just because NBC wants to pick up CBS rejects, doesn’t mean CBS will let them

  • Dale

    I think Whitney’s repeat value means a lot more to Universal/Comcast so that one will be coming back for sure to join P&R. Go On and Community will probably return as well with Community getting a final season renewal.

    The one I have no idea about is GWK that can go either way.

    The New Normal even with The Voice boost is pretty much dead and so is 1600 Penn.

  • theCroup

    @Brian, they might if they wanted to really go out on a limb and also thought they could effectively market all the new shows (maybe as themed blocks, like ABC used to have with TGiF or FOX has with Animation Domination) without breaking the bank.

    But network executives are loathe to go out on limbs and NBC, in particular, isn’t known for it’s clever marketing. I’d lie to see a good house-cleaning, but I rather like both Parks and Community, so I’d want to see both of those renewed.

  • Dale

    @ Brian J

    NBC owns a really small percentage of Community, Sony owns the rest so its more of a Sony show than an NBC show, I highly doubt NBC will make that much money off of it in syndication. Like you said P&R is a lot more attractive to them since they fully own it and its already gotten a syndication deal.

  • HV

    “Parks and Recreation” and “Community” are both sure renewals,and I also believe that “Go On” has a very good shot at renewal. I think it is really a battle between “The New Normal” and “Whitney”. I don’t think that NBC will renew them both. If NBC looks at the whole year, then “The New Normal” will probably be renewed, but if they look at January-April then “Whitney” will probably be renewed. I am leaning towards “The New Normal”. “1600 Penn” I at first thought had a chance at renewal (although I doubted it getting a full second season), but now I think that it will be canceled (which is quite a shame). “Guys With Kids” will surely be canceled. “Up All Night” may have already been canceled, who knows? Before Christina Applegate’s departure, I was sure that it would be renewed (though canceled in fall 2013) because I doubted they would change from single to multi camera and then just cancel the show just like that. Besides, NBC likes the show. But, now, it has almost zero chance at renewal. It is dead.

  • Tom K

    COMMUNITY AND SMASH will stay for sure! THE VOICE will help SMASH retain and build on it’s audience while Idol continues to fall. For NBC to do this well for the season with THE VOICE to come, Fox should be nervous. With more people tuning in to THE VOICE, more are reminded of the other shows NBC is offering bringing both their 18-49 and total viewer numbers up.

  • Lance B.

    this may be a dumb question is there any way and or time for NBC to order 3 more episodes of community this season??

    they’ll be at 84 at the end of this year, and probably only get 13 next year if renewed i want to see them get to 100 though.. just curious

  • Brian J

    @RTV:

    Without knowing what, if any, legal problems there might be, I’m not sure what to think about the idea of another network picking up a cancelled show from another network. Assuming, say, NBC would want to pick up a CBS reject (why would NBC want it if CBS cancelled it?), I guess the first question is whether CBS owns the show. It doesn’t own The Mentalist, for instance, so how could it stop NBC? And even if it did own a show, why would CBS want to stop it? CBS would be canceling it because it wasn’t working for them, but they’d still like to make money off it, which they would even if NBC or some other network ordered more episodes. And if this show were successful, wouldn’t CBS still be making more money off it unless it completely destroyed one of the shows that, in this example, wasn’t cancelled?

    The better question is, why isn’t some network making a play for another networks successful shows? One of the reasons NBC paid a whopping $13 million per episode for ER was because CBS (and possibly ABC and even Fox) made it clear it would try to buy the show from NBC and that Les Moonves, who developed the show when he was at Warner Bros, would pay a lot of money for it. NBC waited and it cost them a lot of money.

    It might be considered bad form to do something like that, but the more likely answer is that few shows are as gigantically successful as ER. The closest example today, I guess, would be the NCIS franchise.

    Could a network desperate for a hit, like NBC, make a play for it? It’d have to want to shell out a lot of money for something like that to happen, but perhaps it could be worth it, if only to stabilize its schedule. But then, wouldn’t the spin off and possibly a second spin off need to come with it?

  • Brian J

    @HV:

    Why is Community a sure thing for a renewal? Even though NBC owns part of the show, it’s supposedly a small part, and it isn’t doing considerably better than anything else. It’s also at a good enough number for syndication, assuming there’s no real difference between 84 and 88 episodes. Plus, the quality has supposedly gone down.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if NBC renewed it, but unless there’s a feeling it could have a long second wind, I don’t see why it would. At this point, it makes more sense to go with another show that is better reviewed and that is completely owned by NBC–if NBC decides to renew any of these shows at all. Right now, there’s a strong case for wiping the slate clean and focusing on rebuilding with just a few shows and then expanding from there.

  • Kavyn

    @Brian J: It’s possible they will stop their comedy block on Thursdays and replace it with dramas, however with Parks and Rec getting renewed I highly doubt it’ll happen next year. Community seems like the obvious fit with P&R for the 8-9pm slot to me, unless if they want to double team P&R so that they air two episodes a week or something, which I doubt the cast would be okay with doing.

    The way I see it, a Community renewal makes sense. I just don’t see any solid reason why NBC would cancel it. They just need something to fill the time slot and keeping Community there would keep many happy, including themselves. And if that means they get a little slice of syndication money from Sony’s hard work, then why not?

  • NBC Fan

    I don’t see a place for Whitney and The New Normal on the fall schedule. I also don’t see NBC waiting to after the Olympics to relaunch them. Community and Parks and Recreation will probably stay in the 8:00 timeslot on Thursday. Go On can come in and replace any failing comedy.

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