NBC: Three Sitcoms Could Be Renewed Besides 'Parks & Rec', But The Cancellation Bear Is Still Chicken

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-chicken
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash :oops: 0.65
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
1600 Penn :oops: 0.78
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.82
Go On :| :| :| 0.89
Whitney :| :| :| 0.90
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.95
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
The Office final season 1.43
Up All Night :oops: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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The Cancellation Bear is of the mind that Community, Go On and Whitney are all potential NBC sitcom renewals (Parks & Recreation is certain to be renewed), but he's not making the move yet. Chicken? Cluck! But Community's 1.9 premiere rating said "certain renewal" and two weeks later it hit a series low 1.1 rating. Its recovered since then, but the cancellation bear is still worried about touching that potentially hot stove again.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Kavyn

    Also, like I said earlier, NBC will not air a new comedy on Thursday at 8pm, for the sole reason that Big Bang is sucking everyone in. If they did then they would do so with the expectation that the comedy will flop.

  • Lord Seth

    Surprised there was no comment on Grimm returning. Okay, sure, its return just confirmed its “certain to be renewed” status, but still, weird to not see a quick mention of it.

  • HV

    @Brian J
    Doesn’t a show require 88 episodes for syndication? Or does it, as you say, just have to be close? If what you are saying is correct, then I highly doubt that Community will be renewed and I think that NBC will only have 3 returning comedies next year.

  • Alan

    Cancelled: Guys with Kids, 1600 Penn, Up All Night, Whitney OR The New Normal
    Renewed: Go On, Community, Whitney OR The New Normal

  • Oliver

    Close to 88 is sufficient. Closer to 100 is preferred.

    Sony ultimately didn’t offer Community up for broadcast syndication for fall 2013, so they expect it to be renewed. Similarly, NBC didn’t offer up Parks, in case anyone was in doubt about Parks’ renewal prospects.

    There are plenty of reasons why Community has the renewal balance tipped in its favour.

    It does well in 18-34 with only Parks beating it among renewable comedies. It’s from Sony, who work hard to keep shows alive (e.g. Unforgettable, Drop Dead Diva, Rules of Engagement). It’s part-owned by NBC, giving them an incentive to keep it going. It performs respectably in a tough timeslot (facing TBBT) dumped at mid-season. It has a cable syndication deal (and the added exposure may help its ratings next season).

    I will be surprised if Community isn’t renewed at this point. I’d guess 13 episodes for mid-season, but even a full season is a possibility.

  • KevinY

    On the comedy side from the new pilots I want to see Then Came Elvis (Parker Posey), Brenda Forever (Ellie Kemper), Girlfriend in a Coma (from the creator of Nurse Jackie), Happiness (Sean Hayes, Lindsay Sloane), and Welcome to the Family (Mary McCormack) along with MJF. A few others look ok too. I have no idea how many they’re gonna order, my guess is five, not including MJF which is already ordered.

    On the drama side I want to see After Hours (Jill Flint), The Hatfields & McCoys Contemporary (Virginia Madsen, Sophia Bush), I Am Victor (created by White Collar writer Mark Goffman), The Secret Lives of Husbands and Wives (Perrey Reeves), and Untitled Rand Ravich Project (Gillian Anderson).

  • Oliver

    I’d like to see Girlfriend in a Coma because it sounds like a trainwreck waiting to happen.

    I’m vaguely interested in the John Mulaney multicam.

    Other than that, none of the other comedies sound remotely appealing, even if I like the actors involved. Doubly so when considered with NBC’s recent broad and brand comedy direction. Still, you never know, something might surprise.

    The Sean Hayes vehicle seems especially unappealing.

  • boogke

    Can someone who really understands the implications and not just some speculating fan or hater explain what it means that Chris D’Elia has signed as the lead in another NBC comedy pilot with second priority to Whitney. Does it actually signify anything other than that the producers of the pilot are taking a chance and guessing/hoping Whitney is cancelled without any real knowledge or info, or is something more sinister/calculated in effect. I know this kind of thing happened with the Wayans guy in New Girl who had to be replaced when Happy Endings was picked up, are the producers taking calculated risks or do they know something we don’t know?

  • Theoacme

    @Billy martins: SVU is at an index of 1.20, and Dick Wolf’s relationship with NBC is historically positive…

    …NBC is crazy, and possibly insane, but, barring everyone on SVU wanting huge raises, NBC will not cancel SVU – I would almost bet my life on that.

    Also, Grimm and Hannibal make sense together, if compatibility means anything (sometimes, it doesn’t, I will admit) – so, bearing in mind NBC’s mental status, I still do not see them moving Grimm to Tuesday from Friday AND putting Hannibal, a new series, on Friday – imo, that is criminally insane. Put them together on Friday, and promote the hell out of it, is the best bet, imo.

  • SJ

    Monday:

    8pm-10pm – The Voice / The Biggest Loser / The Voice
    10pm – Revolution / New Reality / Revolution

    It is my understanding (thanks, Ultima!) that, due to the Winter Olympics coverage, NBC will only be able to air around 5 or so episodes of TBL on Mondays so premiering a new drama at 10pm wouldn’t be viable. A limited-run reality show seems like the best bet there. TBL would then air in one-hour installments on Sundays.

    Tuesday:

    8pm – The Voice Results / New Reality / The Voice Results
    9pm – New Drama
    10pm – Chicago Fire

    Same thing goes for the Tue 8pm slot – limited reality to bridge the gap between The Voice cycles and the Olympics. With CBS likely launching the NCIS spin-off here, NBC should go with a serialized drama that, just like Revolution, could go on hiatus when The Voice does, especially with the Olympics wreaking havoc on NBC’s winter schedule next year. NBC better have a whole lot of cheap reality programs at the ready, especially for Mondays and Tuesdays.

    Wednesday:

    8pm – Go On (13 episodes) / Community (13-episode final season)
    8:30pm – Off Their Rockers (13 episodes) / Parks and Recreation (13-episode final season)
    9pm – Law and Order: SVU (final season)
    10pm – Parenthood (final season)

    Make Wednesday a “say goodbye to your favorites” day. Go On and OTR are obviously just placeholders for Community and Parks and Rec. I expect both to be cancelled after their runs by January 2014.

    Thursday:

    8pm – New Comedy
    8:30pm – New Comedy
    9pm – New Comedy
    9:30pm – New Comedy
    10pm – New Drama

    Just start from scratch. ABC did it in 2009. Something’s bound to stick!

    Friday:

    8pm – New Drama
    9pm – Grimm
    10pm – Dateline NBC

    I know it’s unconventional, but why not launch a new drama there? Preferably something dark in tone to match Grimm. Mockingbird Lane did fine there and even Grimm was a surprise success.

    Saturday:

    8pm-11pm – Drama repeats

    Sunday (after football):

    7pm – Dateline NBC
    8pm – The Biggest Loser
    9pm-11pm – Celebrity Apprentice

    TBL would move to Sundays after airing on Mondays for several weeks before being preempted by the Olympics. With NBC only being able to program Sundays for 15-16 weeks of the season, it’s best it stays unscripted.

    Cancelled: Up All Night (duh!), Whitney, Guys With Kids, Save Me, 1600 Penn, The New Normal, Fashion Star, Smash, Deception, Hannibal, Rock Center.

  • Oliver

    @boogke

    Someone at the network will have approved D’Elia for the pilot. That person presumably made the decision with internal knowledge of Whitney’s renewal chances. If they know Whitney is being renewed then it makes no sense to cast him, because they will have to do recasting and reshoots if the pilot goes to series.

    On the other hand, this is NBC.

  • Aquitar

    Is there anyone from Community other than Ken Jeong who is starring in other pilots for the next TV season? That’d definitely be a hint on whether or not Community could possibly come back or not. If Community won’t come back, then the three comedies could be Whitney (although the main character’s husband is in a new pilot as well), Go On, and Guys with Kids, which I think could pull off a second season because of its relatively consistent ratings in the 18-49 demo, and even when it dropped after returning from the winter hiatus, it still stayed around that number.

  • Dan

    Go On is the “Save Face” comedy for NBC

    Whitney is the “Multi cam” reliabe returning series, that will probably do good wherever it put on the schedule.

    Community stabilizing at a 1.5 actually along with Parks makes it a reliable returning veteran.

    I can see all 3 returning.

    NBC is the opposite of FOX at this point. NBC has renewed nothing while FOX has renewed virtually everything among their cancellations. NBC throw us a bone, renew Parenthood or SVU.

    We know SVU, Grimm, Parenthood, Chicago Fire and pending the numbers, Revolution will all return as well as Parks & Rec. They may as well cancel Deception & Up All Night now as well as Smash (after all eps air).

    Does anyone know, btw how many episodes of Save Me was produced/filmed?

  • James

    @SJ

    Tuesday: It’s just prediction, but shouldn’t the NCIS spinoff airs after NCIS? Besides, it seems ABC also plans to launch a drama on Tuesday. Would it be too risky for NBC to develop a new drama at 9pm?

    Wednesday: So all ending shows are on the same night. What will NBC do in 2014-15 season?

    Thursday: If TBBT and TAAHM were not on Thursday, NBC would start from scratch of course. NBC’s situation is different from ABC. CBS had two comedies back in 2009, but CBS sitcoms were much weaker. It’s much easier for ABC to find something to stick.

    My suggested schedule
    8 – Community (final/ more seasons)
    830 – Parks & Rec (final/ more seasons)
    9 – Reality shows
    10 – Rock Center

    To really start from scratch, NBC has to fill 8-9pm with a decent reality show (dramas don’t work, as proven by ABC). However, next season NBC can keep Community and Park & Rec in the same timeslots, because they can do nothing there. Launch some reality shows at 9. If the reality can pull good ratings, move it to 8pm in 2014-15 season so that it’ll be the lead-in of the night, like Survivor/ The Amazing Race.

  • Dan

    @James – My guess is NCIS LA might move to Tuesdays at 10 and NCIS LA spinoff might air at 9. But whatever the case, CBS will air an NCIS show 9 on Tuesday, ABC will air DWTS at 9 and FOX will probably air New Girl and Mindy at 9 & 9:30. Its not risky for NBC to air a drama after The Voice in the fall, In fact it will probably work out better than when they aired Go On & The New Normal. Way too much comedy but depending on what new drama they develop, airing a drama after The Voice on Tuesdays could work well for NBC.

  • Dan S

    I’m not sure why so many people seem to think P&R will be back for 1 final season an abbreviated 1 at that. This show is hitting on all cylinders & holding its own against heavy competition. It’ll get a full season renewal & hopefully will be back in 2015 to boot. I think it should stay put on Thur at 8:30 where it seems to be stable.
    I’m holding out hope that Hannibal might actually draw a decent sized audience & enough to earn it a 2nd season. From the extended previews this show looks very promising. Granted it should be paired with Grimm, maybe next season.

  • Brian J

    @theCroup:

    Heh, back in the day, NBC used to be known for how well it marketed and tied together its offerings. It might not have been clever, but they were way ahead of the curve in, say, running an add for The Tonight Show during The West Wing.

    Anyway, everyone seems to agree NBC should concentrate its efforts before trying to expand. We just don’t all agree on the night. Thursdays are important, no doubt, but it’s more important for them to have a stand alone night that works. Using The Voice to take scripted shows to a higher level at first is smart, but eventually, the goal should be to have a night of scripted programming that works by itself.

    What has a greater chance of working and contributing to a stronger network overall, an improved but second or more likely third place on Thursdays, or an utterly dominant Tuesdays? I harp on Tuesdays because there’s less competition and because it has NBC’s strongest asset besides football. Wednesdays or even Mondays might work, but I don’t think Thursdays is wise right now.

    But then, as I said, NBC supposedly made some promises, likely contractual, to MJF, so this all might be moot. I wonder what those might be.

  • Brian J

    @Kavyn:

    Artistically, Parks should come back. I’m not sure the same can be said for Community, but let’s assume it, too, deserves to come back. There’s a strong case for putting them together.

    But what about the future? We all seem to agree NBC should concentrate its efforts, particularly for the comedies, but it can’t just not program on certain nights like Thursday. Parks isn’t running out of steam creatively, but can it gain viewers at this point? That much isn’t clear.

    Perhaps the key is to give Parks and Community a shortened season of, say, 16 episodes, or whatever might run out before the Olympics starts, and then put something new on their place once they are over. That could let NBC run two dramas, like Grimm and Bloodline, at 9:00 and 10:00 and then pair those two dramas with another drama, like Believe or Wonderland, at 8:00. It could then focus most of its efforts advertising two or three new comedies on Monday and Tuesday.

  • Brian J

    @HV:

    i figure that while more episodes is better, around 88 is fine. A total of 75 episodes might be fine, for instance, but lower you go, the harder it is to justify.

    @Oliver:

    I’m not sure what you mean by this:

    “Sony ultimately didn’t offer Community up for broadcast syndication for fall 2013, so they expect it to be renewed. Similarly, NBC didn’t offer up Parks, in case anyone was in doubt about Parks’ renewal prospects.”

    I thought both shows were already sold into syndication.

  • Marcelo

    Community!!! Six seasons and a Movie!!!

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