CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
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The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • DW

    my feeling that TGW is almost certain to be renewed is the hulu deal. hulu gets its this fall and hulu subscribers love the new day after stuff.

  • John_M

    Raise your hand if you watch Rules Of Engagement.

    Hands up? Please head to the nearest appropriate doctor and have yourself sterilized, you’re doing the entire planet a favor.

  • dianamack

    I don’t get it. Why The Mentalist should be at risk when its audience and ratings are growing up, while TGW is going down?
    Plus, having a syndaction deal doesn’t mean that TGW’s been renewed.

  • Illinois

    Considering The Good Wife will be Renewed this is my Schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Crazy Ones
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men
    9:30 – Mike & Molly
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Intelligence / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – The Good Wife
    10:00 – Elementary

  • Shepherd

    I think I always felt that TGW had a better chance than TM anyway. Still not sure how I feel about TM’s prospects at this point either. (Beyond toss-up category).

  • Shabbir

    As a huge fan of The mentallist, I really hope it ends. The red john storyline is now becoming farcical and sadly almost all the episodes this season, I was able to who did it well before it reached half way.

    Hope they make an annoucement sooner to give the writers time to end the series gracefully.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Plus, having a syndaction deal doesn’t mean that TGW’s been renewed.”

    Indeed. As noted. Absent any more information, it’s a net positive indicator, but not a certainty.

    “Why The Mentalist should be at risk when its audience and ratings are growing up,”

    You’re delusional. This spring The Mentalist is averaging a 1.8 rating, last spring it averaged a 2.6 for new episodes.

  • Michael Rae

    The Good Wife is very sure on renewal. For The Mentalist, it is still a toss up. But, if the show is going to be renewed, they will cancel CSI:NY and move The Mentalist to Fridays.

  • Leverage-Fan

    As far as I can see the only chance for another (final?!) season for “The Mentalist” is if Warner make CBS an attractive offer regarging the costs.

  • JJ

    I hope the writers of the Mentalist have a good plan with the whole Red John storyline because we fans need a proper and satisfying ending. 10 episodes final season would be nice to wrap things up.

  • timotey

    Yes, The Mentalist averaged 2.6 last spring. So, CBS moved it to Sunday where it gets pummeled and forgotten, ratings dropping to 1.8, and replaces it with Elementary that’s averaging… 2.3? now. So, they took an established show, destroyed it and replaced it with a new show that can’t even get the same ratings. I would say, good job, CBS, good job right there.

  • Pinkle

    Here’s mine:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Friends With Better Lives
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – NCIS: RED

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – Elementary

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 – Crazy Ones
    9:30 – Bad Teacher
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – CSI
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SATURDAY
    repeats, whatever

    SUNDAY
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – The Good Wife

    – The influx of single-camera comedy pilots makes comedy expansion likely next year. CBS’ best bet is Thursday 9pm to expand the current popular TBBT/TAAHM hour as well as no comedy competition (NBC doesn’t count at this point.)
    – Mike and Molly is renewed, but becomes the new Rules. The show is not strong enough to anchor after HIMYM leaves, and CBS doesn’t seem interested in developing it into one. Its current timeslot is too precious for it to flounder there.
    – The comedy expansion makes H50 and CSI’s timeslots more lucrative for CBS to put new dramas in there.
    – Not sure what to put Friday at 8pm
    – CBS can do whatever on Saturday, it’s not gonna make a difference.

  • Tom

    “the bear’s willing to guess that it’s a net positive for another season”

    Is there any track record to suggest that?

    Everything I’ve seen suggests that distributors are after the one time syndication signing for X dollars, and will produce a season (or now, even two) at a loss to get there.

    Continuing a series is nowhere near as predictable. Yes, the syndication deal means the show is effectively Y dollars cheaper per episode, but many a show has been killed at exactly 4 seasons.

    Furthermore, most of the cases where it’s suggested a show was given an extra season to goose syndication money turn out to be false. E.g. Fringe – that was Fox having bare cupboards and willing to pay for the show, and not WB padding the episode count for their syndication deal.

    So yes, Good Wife is now more attractive for another season, as its price tag has dropped Y dollars an episode. But that in itself doesn’t suddenly imply it is now cheaper/ad rate than The Mentalist, going to 22 episodes of Undercover Boss, etc. (Whether The Good Wife on Fridays is now cheaper/ad rate vs. CBS’ theoretical average Friday freshman show is something only CBS’ programming department knows.)

  • Dan

    I agree Mentalist could go either way but its likely renewal for Good Wife, likely cancellation for CSI NY, Vegas, Golden Boy and Rules of Engagement, and certain renewal for the other shows.

    @Bill – not sure if this means anything but Besides Rules’ ratings being down this season all the actors contracts are up, and David Spade and Patrick Warburton have signed on to new pilots Warburtons is actually a CBS show. So that’s not a good sign.

  • Rebecca

    I’m only waiting to see how if Rules returns, but I’m ready for it to end if/when the young couple gets married and the older couple has their baby soon. I don’t like the nastier/raunchier episodes like last night’s, but for the most part it’s entertaining. The only other things I watch on CBS are HIMYM and TBBT, and they’re both returning.

  • Just Desserts

    The Good Wife renewed!!! Curse broken. :)

  • EllieMae

    Looks like you guys don’t hold out hope for The Mentalist – The ratings have been good haven’t they? – if they quit without getting Red John the FANS – are not gonna be happy at all!!!!! I don’t watch The Good Wife or Undercover Boss so I am all for it sticking around!

  • gerry

    IAMSOHAPPYTOSEEFOURSMILEYSFORTGW! finally!

    LOL @ John_M (i think that about the people watching 2.5 men as well.)

  • SS

    I used to watch the Mentalist all the time, but with the CBS death slot (i.e. who knows when it is on in the fall because of the football scheduling) I kept missing it and eventually lost interest and stopped looking for it. I still liked it the last time I saw it though.

  • zerg

    @timotey

    Actually it is a good job for them, because they put a established show in a tough slot and give Elementary a low competition slot + good lead in and let it alive at least for 4 seasons and get a new syndication deal..I agree with but it works like this

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