CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
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The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is there any track record to suggest that?”

    None that I can point to. Or I’d have mentioned it.

    Like my CSI:NY prediction, my Good Wife prediction is a combination of (1) I’m making an up or down prediction by the end of the year, (2) Current information is likely as complete as I am going to get by the end of the year (which for our purposes is about 5 weeks away), so I may as well make my call now.

    If I allowed myself to finish the year predicting 50% renewal/50% cancellation chances for shows things would be different, but where would the fun in that be?

  • bri

    I know this is going to sound like fan excuse bingo, but the L+7 increases for The Mentalist are pretty good(generally bringing the number back up to its prior live numbers). Some of that number is surely within the measured and meaningful C3 period, which means something, and Les Moonves loves his L+7. . .

  • DenverDean

    NICS: LA and POI are NOT moving to 10 PM slots. Both are way to early in cycle for that type of move. I see CM shifting to 10/9 and LA moving to 9/8 on Wed. NCIS: Red between NCIS and CSI. (CBS is not going to launch back-to-back shows.) A hammock will ensure success.

  • Bad Wolf

    Seasons1 to 3 of The Good Wife are now available in syndication, with season 4 coming later this year. CBS is probably hoping people will catch up with the 4 seasons to improve or at least stabilise the ratings of a 5th season. It’s not 100% sure of course, but it’s what makes most sense. And, as often repeated before, CBS owns The Good Wife but not The Mentalist which, now with this new deal, makes a 5th season of The Good Wife more attractive than a 6th season of The Mentalist.
    I agree with Bill on a LIKELY renewal, likely but not certain.

  • Alan B.

    Lets be honest The Good Wife is a classy show from the writers,producers, to the casting and deserves to be renewed. The Mentalist is stale and showing it’s age. If it is lucky to be renewed whatever day/time slot it takes will not save it .

  • Dan S

    Who’s to say that both TGW & TM don’t both end this year ? I have a feeling Survivor will move to Sun at 9pm & H50 would go to 10pm. NCIS Red could go on Wed at 8pm followed by POI & CM. It’s most likely BHC would air on Mon at 10pm & Thur will have 2 hrs of comedy. CSI should go to Fri replacing NY & make it their final season. They have a lot of promising pilots like Intelligence that would work well on Tues at 10pm.

  • Fed

    CBS doesn’t need another hour of comedys. They don’t have a new comedy from this year. Rules will be canceled, HIMYM is ending next year and TAAHM isn’t certain because of the contracts (God please cancel it already).

  • Common Anomaly

    Great Quotes in TVbythenumbers History:

    On April 15, 2008, Robert Seidman stated, “This is an area where one man’s opinion probably doesn’t count at all – unless that one man is Leslie Moonves, in which case it would count a lot. I look at the numbers and think – hmmmm keep both of them [Rules of Engagement and The New Adventures of Old Christine] and maybe move The Big Bank Theory to the CW.”

  • Dan

    @Dan S if Survivor moves to Sundays then it’s likely that 2 comedies will air on Wed at 8 with CBS keeping dramas at 9pm Thur, They could move Two and a Half Men to Wed at 8 launching a comedy after it at 830 and one after Big Bang at 830 Thur. CBS could move CSI to Fridays in place of CSI NY, air a new drama Wed at 10 in its place and air NCIS spinoff at 9 Tues followed by NCIS and NCIS LA @ 10 tues.

    @Rebecca – The Rules of Engagement Season finale airing May 20 titled 100th which is also the 100th episode is intended to wrap up loose storylines like Adam & Jenns wedding, and Jeff & Audreys baby. The cast knows that it’s the end so they have time to wrap the series up nicely.

  • psychic

    Why on earth did CBS move TM to Sundays!? It’s a question that still needs to be answered…

  • WN

    The Mentalist has kept my interest this long, which is more than I can say for other tv shows I’ve watched. I’m enjoying it, and hope it is renewed for 1 more season so that the Red John storyline is properly completed. Since the showi is distributed worldwide, I think it is in Warner studios financial interest to maintain interest in the show by ensuring there is a good resolution to Red John. I will miss the show a lot when it finally ends.

  • K. Patrick Glover

    The problem with cancelling the Mentalist before giving them a chance to conclude the story, is that it would actually lower the value for repeats and DVD sales. Once people realize the central mystery never got solved during the series, they’ll stop investing time and money into it and the aftermarket disappears.

    They could, of course, renew it for a partial season, solely to wrap up the story.

  • Dan

    @Fed – CBS does need another hour of comedy if only for just next season. They have 5 definite returning shows HIMYM, TBBT, 2BG, M&M and TAAHM so basically if not expanded and all 5 comedies return in the fall CBS only has 1 slot for a new comedy, however CBS wants to premiere 2 comedies 1 on Monday and 1 post Big Bang so unless they expand comedy hour there’s no way they can do this. And no shows will move to Saturday.

    @Common Anomoly – That was back when TBBT was the lowest rated comedy on CBS that season now it’s the highest. However knowing what they do now I bet CW would love to have had the chance to air TBBT.

  • Percysowner

    The problem with cancelling the Mentalist before giving them a chance to conclude the story, is that it would actually lower the value for repeats and DVD sales. Once people realize the central mystery never got solved during the series, they’ll stop investing time and money into it and the aftermarket disappears.

    And since CBS doesn’t produce The Mentalist, they don’t care. This doesn’t mean that Warner won’t pull a Fringe and make the final season so cheap that CBS will pick it up for 13 episodes to finish it out, but currently, it syndication issues don’t matter to CBS.

  • Dan

    @K Patrick Glover – Sadly CBS is the one network that doesn’t do wrap up seasons. Hopefully they do so for The Good Wife Though.

    @psychic – Easy CBS needs room during the week to premiere new shows, same reason any veteran drama is moved to Sundays on CBS.

  • Elijah

    Elementary should not be moved from its Thursday 10pm slot.

  • dianamack

    @K. Patrick Glover

    Exactly my fear. I hope they’ll give a good conclusion to the story at least.

    @Percysowner
    And since CBS doesn’t produce The Mentalist, they don’t care. This doesn’t mean that Warner won’t pull a Fringe and make the final season so cheap that CBS will pick it up for 13 episodes to finish it out, but currently, it syndication issues don’t matter to CBS.

    Yes, CBS doesn’t give a damn about TM. I hate this.

  • Just Desserts

    Everyone saying that Rules isn;t going to be renewed because CBS is reluctant to have another hour of comedy should look instead at the fact that both How I Meth Your Mother and Two and a Half Men are likely to end in the next couple of years. There’s your hour right there so I don;t see where the problem is.

  • Common Anomaly

    Without a Trace
    Season 4 – 2005/2006 – Thursday 10 PM – 18-49 demo – 6.29
    Season 5 – 2006/2007 – Sunday 10 PM – 18-49 demo – 3.96
    Season 6 – 2007/2008 – Thursday 10 PM – 18-49 demo – 3.80
    Season 7 – 2008/2009 – Tuesday 10 PM – 18-49 demo – 2.73

  • dianamack

    The thing that makes me angry is that CBS will carry on with two shows (TGW and Elementary) that have low ratings compared to The Mentalist one.
    Let’s be honest. Elementary is a flop. On thursday it keeps having 2.3 in ratings.
    And CBS may be jealous (?) about TM and its high numbers…?
    I’m still hoping for a renewel since Bruno Heller stated that he has the complete storyline, he knows how to end the show.

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