CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
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The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Fed

    @Dan,

    Well if CBS wants 1 new comedy both on Monday and Thursday, then they should just end TAAHM. I has become way more expensive and it is loosin 2 points from TBBT. In that rate any new comedy would do about the same/or slightly lower but it would cost less to produce.

  • Leverage-Fan

    “The Mentalist” is really some kind of a ‘step child’ for CBS! :( But, like others said, Warner had shown in the past years that they care and gave several series one final season through financial deals with the networks. I hope this will happen for “The Mentalist”, too.

  • bluejoni

    Please NO more dopey sitcoms !!!! Keep The Mentalist !!!

  • Fake Me Out

    The only good thing about a TGW renewal is it’s one less hour of TV I have to pencil into my schedule … and that is actually a good thing so I hope it’s renewed so I have more free time, a new show I actually watch would be a bad thing.

  • direct39

    TM ratings are really not bad. This show need one more, final season. WB and CBS, I believe in you :).

  • Leverage-Fan

    @direct39: Full approval! :)

  • Brian

    The Good Wife should be cancelled with the crappy ratings it has gotten all season!.. and The Mentalist still can get higher ratings especially if it was put back on it’s original day on Thursdays..let them put that stupid Elementary on Sundays instead!

  • PurpleDrazi

    Well, the CBS index is almost as boring as Fox now.

    NBC…I’m counting on you to bring the suspense! :-)

  • KJ Styles

    “You’re delusional. This spring The Mentalist is averaging a 1.8 rating, last spring it averaged a 2.6 for new episodes.”

    Last Spring, The Mentalist aired on Thursdays. This spring it airs on Sundays where the competition is a lot tougher (Sunday Night Football in the first half of the season, and Talking Dead in the second half).

    I can honestly see Mentalist and Good Wife getting renewed. If TGW is renewed it will only be for a 13 episode final season. It will be like Chuck and Fringe were.

  • CBSviewer

    I’ll give you 9 reasons to Renew CSI: NY !
    1) It is owned by CBS.
    2) It has a VERY good syndication deal.
    3) All the Cast (Except Hill Harper) want to re-sign.
    4) It often beat Blue Bloods among 18-49.
    5) It can get a 1.6 on Friday while TGW and The Mentalist do similar on Sunday with a better lead-in.
    6) 200 episodes is better for syndication.
    7) Every new Shows on Friday flop.
    8) Last year, the Show made more Money than CSI: Miami (which got a 2.1) so it’s probably making more money than The Mentalist this Season (which is around 1.7).
    9) It is the perfect lead-in for Blue Bloods. Both Shows are very similar.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    It’s probably a good thing that The Good Wife isn’t going to go for 10 seasons. First season episode were one word long. Season 4 are four words long. Imagine is became a longrunner. It was get ridiculous

  • Richard Steven Hack

    “woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.”

    Precisely. Which is why the CW shows are in such a mess. A show has to make money in its first two seasons to justify being subsidized by the studios for subsequent seasons for syndication reasons.

  • TV Gord

    I’m on the fence about The Mentalist. The only character I enjoy anymore is Cho (he’s hilarious, if you pay attention). I would love to see this character (the Joe Friday of the 21st century) in a new show of his own. :-)

  • MaryAnn

    I just don’t want The Mentalist cancelled without having at least a half season to wrap up the Red John story line. It would be terribly disappointing to the fans if they didn’t get an ending after Red John has been the whole theme of the show.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I can honestly see Mentalist and Good Wife getting renewed.”

    Renewal of both would not be a surprise, as noted. It’s only a matter of whether CBS drama hours remain constant.

  • RM

    The Mentalist should be named The Red John Show. Kill Red John and move on.

  • johnhelvete

    I don’t see why they can’t end the Red John storyline this season? Or at least reveal who Red John is at the end of the season, with season 6 potentially about the capture of Red John.

  • Janus

    Still think they will eek out one more year of the Mentalist and wrap up the series arc.

  • Carmen

    @ Maryann
    “I just don’t want The Mentalist cancelled without having at least a half season to wrap up the Red John story line. It would be terribly disappointing to the fans if they didn’t get an ending after Red John has been the whole theme of the show”

    Some fans I guess like the reliance The Menalist has on the Red John storyline.
    However, I think that there are more who do not. The producers Red John reliance is what took me from a regular watcher to one who moves on the moment it is clear that “this is another RJ episode”

  • mort

    i think this industry is crazy. you got a good show on sunday at 10pm. you got lots of viewers. oops is that what tv is for. to see tv shows. i think keeping TGW is a mistake. i for one who rather watch the Mentalist in syndication than TGW. I will be P@!!&d if it goes off.

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