CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
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The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • omabin

    I’ve thought the good wife would have been renewed all season. This was just a matter of time until it got the deal. I also agree with you 100% that the mentalist is a true tossup, I don’t know what to make of it I also think there is a chance, albeit small, that NY might come back, although def. lower than the mentalist at this point. I think CBS will expand to another comedy hour to be honest and I also think they will cut back their 3 hours of reality to 2 somehow. So this is what I would do:

    Monday
    How I Met Your Mother
    Friends with Better Lives
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Beverly Hill Cops

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS-Red
    NCIS-LA

    Wednesday
    Person of Interest
    Intelligence
    Criminal Minds

    Thursday
    Two and a Half Men
    Super Clyde
    The Big Bang Theory
    Mom
    Elementary

    Friday
    The Good Wife [13 eps final season]/ Undercover Boss
    CSI
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    Survivor
    Hawaii Five-0

    So: 3 New Dramas, 3 New Comedies
    Problem: Way too many moves and this is CBS we are talking about here. I suppose some of these could be avoided, like leaving good wife on sundays at 10 instead of five-0, etc, but other than that I really feel like they are in need for a major shake up.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ” I also think they will cut back their 3 hours of reality to 2 somehow.”

    They started with 2 hours of reality last Fall.

    Going with 2 again would not be a reduction.

  • dae

    Vegas: Probably CANCELLED!!!!!! Well, there goes yet another great show that I actually watched…

    But, wait, Mentalist is in that boat too…

    Sounds like my days of watching CBS is over (just like ABC and NBC and FOX Monday through Saturday!)

  • dianamack

    Why everyone is so negative about The Mentalist?
    I’d like thinking in positive since it’s one of my favorite shows… unluckly, CBS ruined it by moving on Sundays.
    Can we hope for a syndacation between CBS and TNT, if WB can’t make a good deal?

  • Leverage-Fan

    @dae: The days I watched CBS-shows are sooner than later over for me, too. I only watch “How I Met Yor Mother”, “The Big Bang Theory” and “The Mentalist” on CBS. The first will be ending next season and the last this OR HOPEFULLY next season, too. All the other shows and the new pilots or series for next season aren’t intersting for me. :-|

  • Leverage-Fan

    @dianamack: I would like a renewal VERY much but realistically only a good financial deal between CBS and Warner COULD save the show!

  • Shabbir

    TM is becoming the Monk. Trying to stretch story lines and adding red john sotories to keep loyal fans interested. In the end it will be hashed up event just like in Monk was. The show would be popular if they just moved on and life after RJ. How does Jane cope etc.. and is there a a new love interest?.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @Shabbir: I think the problem is these “Search for murder of a beloved one”-stories aren’t new or fresh for a crime series. Not only “The Mentalist” and “Monk” have/had them other series like “Castle”, “Profiler” or “Unforgettable” have/had them, too.

  • omabin

    @Bill Gorman,

    True, I was referring to right now, I expressed myself poorly. But in the end, I left 2 hours of reality on the schedule only, with an extra comedy hour and 4 drama hours (Made in Jersey, Vegas, CSI NY and The Mentalist) axed, so the reasoning was the same you always make I think, with the exception that I have cut an extra drama for a comedy hour.

  • JJF

    As long as POI doesn’t get pushed to 10PM. Don’t kill your strongest show that isn’t aging, CBS.

    I could see The Mentalist squeezing out another season. Still not sure any syndication deal helps The Good Wife any. Maybe now CBS will think they can finally put it down.

    Undercover Boss isn’t really worth killing a drama over anymore with it’s ratings.

    This could be the season they do the dreaded comedy expansion. Although I still say they shouldn’t do it on Thursday. Especially with their established comedies slipping. Still think TAAM should go to Fridays, launch 1 new comedy there. Launch a new comedy out of TBBT, and one out of either HIMYM or 2BG. Comedys on Friday seems to make sense given CBS’ failed attempts at drama there.

    I could see this, and could live with it too.

    Sunday: 60Min/Amazing Race/Elementary/The Meantlist or TGW
    Monday: HIMYM/M&M/2BG/Crazy Ones/Beverly Hills Cop or H50
    Tuesday: NCIS/LA/Red
    Wednesday: Survivor/Criminal Minds/CSI or a New Drama (One of H50 or CSI will be moved for a new show.)
    Thursday: TBBT/Mom/POI/Intelligence
    Friday: TAAHM/Bad Teacher/CSI or H50 (whichever moves)/BB

  • Shabbir

    @Leverage-fan. I agree but TM has been focussed on red john since the start and every finale is geared towards that and in the end nothing happens.

    The writers have realised that as well and this season, the story has moved much faster and Im sure it wont be long before Red John is revealed.. either as series finale or season finale.

    They could have done so much with Jane and the gang and moved away from red John.

  • jen

    I don’t thnk CBS expands comedy another hour. Rules has run its course, but CBS can still debut 2 new shows in the fall by giving Mike and Molly the Rules treatment (while giving Melissa McCartny more flexability to make movies) .

  • Cj

    @shabbir

    ‘the show would be popular if…’

    The show IS popular. The ratings decline is due to the Sunday move, not the Red John story.

  • THE OLD MAN

    TGW likely renewal & post worded so carefully, but nonetheless this old man is wearing his broadest Cheshire Cat grin!

    @ Bill G

    A double vodka, no ice in your honor, my good man!

  • James

    If the Mentalist gets canceled, and it is not owned by CBS, they can’t another network pick it up? ABC or NBC would be happy to add it to there line up, and air it against the Good Wife or Elementary. With the right time slot it would beat both of them. The show has been jerked around by CBS all year, even with episodes airing and then not airing for weeks at a time,

  • JacobYates

    @Bill

    Where would H50 be on the index if it wasn’t in its 3rd season?

  • JacobYates

    Where does everybody get the info on the pilots for each network?

  • Rebecca

    @Dan
    Thanks for the info. I wondered if Rules would get to wrap up both stories, because in a recent episode the bride said something about the wedding being a few months away and that would put us into June. And Audrey or the surrogate said the baby would be born in two months, so the baby would come along in time but not the wedding. Unless they just have us all pretend it’s June or late May. lol As long as both events happen onscreen I’ll be happy.

  • Rebecca

    @JacobYates
    Pilot info can usually be found on Deadline’s site or the “in development” section of the futoncritic site. I’d recommend the latter, because then once the pilot becomes a series it’ll move up to your list of shows (if you’ve set one up on that site – I have mine set up just so I can refer to the schedule weeks/months in advance).

  • JacobYates

    @Rebecca
    Thanks.

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