CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
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The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Charmaine
    “as well as Simon’s news worthiness with his recent star on hollywood walk of fame”

    Oh come now you could not have had a serious face on when you typed that.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    The CBS cancellation bear always seems to be a polar bear. Is that in any way a reference to the white hair color of many a CBS viewer or strictly a coincidence?

  • Derick

    YAY GOOD WIFE! BEST SHOW ON TV!

  • ricktatorship

    Newbie question: why is Good Wife (.58) stronger than Vegas (.59)? And why is Elementary (.85) stronger than Rules of Engagement (.96)? Obviously there’s more going on than just the numbers.

  • s0303

    i knew the good wife would be renewed about a month ago when cbs signed josh charles to return next season..still good to see it at likely renewal :)

  • Scarps

    with CSI renewed for season 14, CSI: NY will be cancelled and the orginal will be the only one left. The way it should be. Viva Las Vegas!

  • Jenny G

    Not only must The Mentalist wrap up the Red John story line, it must also address the

  • Ultima

    @were123
    Has nobody thought of this? Both TGW and The Mentalist are renewed, each for a final season of 13 episodes; one premieres in the fall and the other one is mid season.

    It’s not that nobody has thought it of; it’s that anybody who is familiar with CBS knows that’s not how they program.

  • KJ Styles

    @Rickatorship- Bill explained in the headline below the index why TGW is in better shape than Vegas.

    And you cannot compare dramas and comedies, it’s like apples and oranges. Rules is currently the lowest rated comedy on CBS, it’s aging, and the cast members themselves have talked about moving on to other projects. It’s most likely done. The only thing that would save it is if CBS decides to increase it’s comedy hours, but even then it’s not guaranteed to return next season.

    As for Elementary, 85% of a network’s scripted average is likely renewal territory for a rookie drama. Especially when several other dramas are lower rated. While it probably won’t stay in the same timeslot next season, it will be renewed.

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.

    If it was really long term, they wouldn’t even know what CSI was.

    If it was only a few years, they would probably expect it to still be pulling monster ratings on Thursday and maybe have a few more spinoffs!

    ;)

  • Eric

    Am I the only one who is optimistic that they will renew both The Good Wife and The Mentalist? I don’t know why, but I find it very unlikely that they will cancel either. Don’t have much to support that. It is just a gut feeling. lol

  • Rob

    @Patrick Ausgewahlt
    “It’s probably a good thing that The Good Wife isn’t going to go for 10 seasons. First season episode were one word long. Season 4 are four words long. Imagine is became a longrunner.”

    Oh wow. I knew about the episode title thing but I never thought about what it would be like if it lasted many more seasons. Every episode would be like “Alicia Florrick and the Case of the Dead Cheating Judge” or “Kalinda Sharma Flirts with a Cashier for Information on Robbery”

  • glman

    I really wish CBS would keep Golden Boy. It kinda stinks (well not for them) that a show getting “only” 10m viewers is considered “mediocre”. :P

  • h

    Sunday
    8-TAR
    9-NCIS LA
    10-TGW

    Monday
    8-HIMYM
    8:30-Crazy Ones(NEW)/Friends With Better Lives (NEW)
    9-2 Broke Girls
    9:30-Mike and Molly
    10-Beverly Hills Cop (NEW)

    Tuesday
    8-NCIS
    9-NCIS Red (NEW)
    10-Hawaii Five-0

    Wednesday
    8-Survivor
    9-Criminal Minds
    10-CSI

    Thursday
    8-TBBT
    8:30-TAAHM
    9-POI
    10-Intelligence (NEW)

    Friday
    8-Undercover Boss
    9-Elementary
    10-Blue Bloods

    Midseason: 1 new drama (to either replace another cancelled drama or replace UB)

    Cancelled from this season

    SO…3 NEW DRAMAS (+1 at midseason) and 2 NEW COMEDIES (1 in the fall and one in the winter/spring)

    Please help me improve this schedule with your advice

  • Cj morton

    Still really mad that they moved mentalist to Sunday, otherwise it would be fine.

  • killer

    If CBS cancels the Mentalist!!

    I may never watch the CBS network again…… love the show!!!!!!!

  • astro

    and why moved the MT to Sunday in first place?????

  • renzo

    just moved tm to another Day! :)

  • Ultima

    @astro
    and why moved the MT to Sunday in first place?

    Because Thursday 10pm is a much better timeslot for a new show than Sunday 10pm. The Mentalist is an aging, non-CBS produced show; it’s expendable.

  • Cass

    @s0303
    i knew the good wife would be renewed about a month ago when cbs signed josh charles to return next season..still good to see it at likely renewal

    While certainly not a bad sign, the fact that actors contracted for more seasons is not a de facto indicator of renewal. Actors are signed for many seasons all the time on the assumption of renewal, but it’s no guarantee. What is a good sign for renewal is the syndication deal! Dunno if it’s a dealmaker but I’d put a lot more faith in that than actor contracts. :)

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