CBS: 'The Good Wife' Is Likely To Be Renewed, But What About 'The Mentalist'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


polar-bear-detroit-zoo

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
Golden Boy (one F) :oops: 0.54
The Good Wife :) :) :) :) 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: (renewed 3/20) 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.96
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
NCIS renewed 1.31
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.31
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

-
3/20 To the surprise of only the long term comatose, CSI was renewed.
-
The long awaited (at least by the CBS CFO) syndication deal for The Good Wife was announced last week. Of course the financial terms in the press release were superlatively glowing, they always are.

Given that no one in public knows the detailed terms of the deal, nor the financial production details of the show, can the Cancellation Bear be certain the deal will get the show renewed for a fifth season? No. But without knowing any details, and needing to make a prediction eventually anyway, the bear's willing to guess that it's a net positive for another season, and that's why the show is now "likely to be renewed".

Why can't Vegas be renewed with spring ratings almost identical to The Good Wife? Sorry Vegas fans, woeful ratings are tolerated in third and fourth season shows that are bound for syndication. Rookie shows get no such break.

That leaves The Mentalist as the only CBS drama predicted as a "toss up". If CBS keeps its drama hours the same as they were in Fall 2012, it will likely get renewed. But if CBS either expands its sitcom time, or adds Undercover Boss to the Fall 2013 schedule, it's getting canceled. Sadly, I have no way of judging those possibilities right now. If ever. Still, it'll likely be in the headline next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jasmine

    I’m happy how I met your mother is getting one more season! I can’t wait to finally see Ted’s wife!

  • david h

    I need someone to explain the logic of taking a top 15 show and moving it behind football, which sometimes meant an 11:30 eastern or later start time? Even with the late start the Mentalist routinely pulls second in total viewers for the night. Put it any night at 8:00 and it returns to form. The last two weeks it has beat The Good Wife in ratings. Why kill a winner?

  • CHASE

    I just want the Mentalist to have a conclusion. You watch him chase a killer for years you want to see a end to that story. Unlike with csi and csi ny and without a trace and others that cbs just end and cancel after the fact.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @CHASE: Closure regardless how long the series last is all I want, too. I’m not a “I want more seasons!” fan. ALL shows end sometime, some sooner than later but a ending should always happen! But unfortunately (not only) CBS don’t care and they will cancel the show anytime they want and/or can. It wouldn’t be fair (to the audience) if CBS made a decision weeks ago but didn’t inform the producers. IF CBS cancel the show now there wouldn’t be time to write the season finale to serve as a series finale. Howewer: Until we get no cancellation news there is hope that we can get one final season. To be honest (and in my opinion ;-) ): “The Mentalist” will end this or next season. A seventh season is unrealistically!

  • NewMan

    What CBS should do next Season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother (Final Season, 24 episodes)
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement (22 episodes)
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls (24 episodes)
    9:30 – Mom (13-24 episodes)
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles (25 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS (24 episodes)
    9:00 – NCIS: Red (13-24 episodes)
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop (13-23 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds (22 episodes)
    10:00 – CSI (22 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory (25 episodes)
    8:30 – Crazy Ones (13-22 episodes)
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men (Final Season, 23 episodes)
    9:30 – Mike & Molly (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Person of Interest (24 episodes)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Intelligence (13 episodes) / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0 (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Blue Bloods (22 episodes)

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary (22 episodes)
    10:00 – The Good Wife (18 episodes) / NEW DRAMA

    Do you have anything to say about my Schedule ? Any thoughts to help me ?

  • Jim Jac

    Hmm, for the first time i think Tvbythenumbers are dead wrong, TGW is as likely to be renewed/cancelled as The Mentalist is.

    The only thing that will decided is money, if The Mentalist is providing more red numbers than TGW , TGW is going to win and the other way around.

    But i think both will be renewed if anything, or if they have 2 new shows both will be axed.

  • Moose

    If CBS does not pick up The Mentalist for another season, is there any chance that TNT might pick it up?

  • michel

    the big thin on the csi ny twitter and cbs connect sites is al the pepole with the no to cancel it and the list is growing per minute with 3-7 posts/tweets and so cbs cant get around this one most pepole say its a shame if the cancel csi ny and kill of the serrie the same way csi miami was.

    and that when cathrine left csi lv most of the pepole onley watch csi ny becasue the great actors.

    i just hope they give ny 1 more season to round up the open story plots

  • Gus

    No real proof here but I think CBS shall bring The Mentalist back for a final season. CBS is way ahead of everyone else and it can afford to bring an aging show like The Mentalist back. Other shows of weaker networks (The CW with Gossip Girl for example) have been brought back for for final seasons. The Mentalist can be brought back by CBS. Ending the Red John storyline once and for all is this show’s end game. Much like finding out who “A” is will be for Pretty Little Liars. Hanging around for too long can create problems for a tv show when it comes to losing viewers but the network has something to do with that right? I think CBS will give The Mentalist a chance for a proper ending.

  • HV

    I don’t currently watch any shows on CBS, but I have read about them, and here is my prediction schedule for next year:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 60 Minutes
    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 (NEW) The Anatomy of Violence

    MONDAY
    8:00 How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 (NEW) Gaffigan//(NEW) Jacked Up
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 (NEW) Ex Men/Mike & Molly
    10:00 Hawaii Five-0

    TUESDAY
    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS: LA
    10:00 (NEW) untitled NCIS: LA spin-off

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    THURDAY
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 Two and a Half Men
    9:00 Person of Interest
    10:00 Elementary

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Undercover Boss
    9:00 (NEW) Second Sight
    10:00 Blue Bloods

  • HV

    Oh, and on my schedule, Jacked Up premires in March and Mike & Molly premires in January. Gaffigan airs 22 episodes, Mike & Molly airs 18 episodes, Ex Men airs 10 episodes, and Jacked Up airs 10 episodes.

  • CBSviewer

    @ HV

    Mike & Molly needs, at least, 19 episodes next season to reach 88 for syndication.

  • HV

    @CBSveiwer
    This season is 23 episodes. Season one was 24 episodes and season two was 23 episodes. That makes a total of 70 episodes, meaning the show needs 18 more episodes. If the show wasn’t that close to or had already passed syndication I would have given it only 15 episodes.

  • CBSviewer

    @ HV

    I thought this season was 22 episodes. But I still think CBS will order a full season of 22 episodes. With HIMYM ending next season CBS needs Mike & Molly for, at least, two more seasons.

  • Chibgchong

    How is it that mike and Molly a show that’s nothing but fat jokes can do so well while the hilarious comedic masterpiece that is rules of engagement is still a toss up?

  • SobetonNYC

    Golden boy on any other network would have been a hit. Good Wife getting renewed for syndication IMO.NCIS Red will fail, the characters are not strong enough to carry a show on their own IMO.

  • DeanW

    @ SobetonNYC

    I agree with you about NCIS: Red but I thought the same thing about NCIS: Los Angeles and it is TV’s #2 Drama.
    Im 100% sure because the Show has NCIS in its title it will atract at least 16 million viewers for the first two episodes. Plus the ratings of the two other NCIS will go up. For example, NCIS had 18 million during season 6 and it had 20 million when LA premiered in 2009.

  • HV

    @CBSveiwer
    The reason I put it at midseason is that CBS has so many comedy pilots that I think they would put two in the fall and if one fails replace it with Mike & Molly unless both do well then put it in the spring doubling up episodes for 9 weeks. But I think that only Gaffigan will end up surviving.

  • Ultima

    @david h
    I need someone to explain the logic of taking a top 15 show and moving it behind football, which sometimes meant an 11:30 eastern or later start time?

    The Mentalist never started that late. The start times for the weeks that CBS had a national late afternoon NFL game – 10:33p, 10:56p, 10:34p, 10:53p.

    Also, note that it only had the late start five times (including last night); it’s not like it was every week.

    What’s the logic behind the move? Thursday 10pm was a really good timeslot for a new drama, so CBS had to move The Mentalist somewhere – either Friday or Sunday. It got the worst Sunday timeslot because The Good Wife is more important to CBS as they were trying to sell it into syndication.

    CBS’ objective is to do what’s best for the network as a whole, not what’s best for The Mentalist.

  • Ultima

    @Chibgchong
    How is it that mike and Molly a show that’s nothing but fat jokes can do so well while the hilarious comedic masterpiece that is rules of engagement is still a toss up?

    How is it that you can think that anything you just wrote is remotely relevant to what CBS does with the shows?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures