CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • gerry

    i agree with robert, sorry bill. BUT i think cancelling both is the likeliest scenario.

  • Wright

    TCD should be cancelled.

  • juliedawn

    I like the Bear’s thinking today.

  • Patrick

    I still think The Carrie Diaries might survive based only on the need to pair Hart Of Dixie with something. They’ve already confirmed Top Model will be restricted to summer runs going forward, and with all their pilots being genre fare, there’s nothing that can be introduced as a compatible pairing with HOD. They’ve cancelled 90210 and Emily Owens so the only show with a similar audience and themes is the Carrie Diaries, I’m still thinking it will be renewed and the two paired together on one night. That way The CW can focus on genre fare the other 4.

  • Shepherd

    I agree with Bill that BaTB has a better chance than TCD, but I still haven’t ruled out the possibility that the CW only renews 5 hours of programming. I’d say there’s at least a 25% chance of that happening at this point.

  • kat

    Patrick, I’m think Company Town would pair OK with Hart of Dixie. Of course, I haven’t paid much attention to their pilot new yet – I’ll wait till we start hearing rumors about what’s likely getting picked up and what’s not.

  • Win

    @Patrick

    TCD and HoD do not need to be paired together. A genre show like Oxygen could very well fit with it, as mentioned before, SPN and Gilmore Girls were paired together once…

    Aside from that, there are at least two non-genre pilots in the works. If at least one of them is good, that who will pair with HoD.
    HoD could very well move to friday for all we know….

    But to think a show will be renewed because of the content of another show?
    FAN EXCUSE BINGO SIR….

  • Charmed

    There’s no way they will cancel both, where is the money for five sci fi shows!? And TCD will be picked over BATB.

  • Michael Rae

    The Carrie Diaries might be cancelled but the fate will depend on the season finale. If renewed, it might be scheduled on Monday again. If cancelled, they’re might be a protest by the fans to resurrect the show or something. The show might also be moved to other network because The Carrie Diaries is a big franchise from Sex and the City. It might move to Netflix, Lifetime or ABC Family

  • halloween

    as long neither get renewed for a full 22 episode order before seeing next season results…13 episodes only

    and to get it over with

    Bring Back, Ringer, Secret Circle, Emily Owens :)

  • sasha

    TCD wont be picked over BATB. BATB does better in viewership and online and socially.

  • SS

    LMAO – TCD’s finale is in April. If the network were seriously considering bringing it back, it would have a May air date.

  • Solelle

    I’m not sure I like tcd I have tried to. I did have the same problem wit batb but I think the writters have been trying really hard for a hail mary because batb is getting better.

  • Call me a hiperflop

    On the photo I can’t see the bear – it is a hyena.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “where is the money for five sci fi shows!?”

    What? The confidence people put in their ability to discern show costs is laughable. My guess is that similarly aged CW shows cost about the same amount per episode, or at least close enough to not be a factor.

    If they follow their recent pattern, they’ll go with

    6 returning scripted
    3 new scripted
    ANTM

    While it would break their recent habits, it’s not inconceivable they go with
    5 returning scripted
    3 new scripted
    ANTM
    1 new reality

  • gerry

    @ sasha – do you have links to support that batb does better via online and social media? i’d be curious to see that.

  • gerry

    @ ss – may has nothing to do with it, cw wanted to air the full season together for momentum as opposed to splits to carry it through may.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “BATB does better in viewership”

    irrelevant

    “and online”

    Not entirely irrelevant, but I’m quite certain you don’t know any of the meaningful online streaming statistics.

    “and socially.”

    irrelevant

  • Same

    @micheal that’s if cw ( don’t know who owns TCD CBS or Warner’s bros) but if they don’t wann give up the rights then no other network or Netflix etc can save it

  • Richard Steven Hack

    TCD is dead as a doornail.

    BATB still has “A” shot but I don’t expect it to be renewed either. If it is, it will be moved to Friday and do much worse than it’s doing this season.

    I still believe that given the pathetic level of this season’s ratings except for Arrow – and with Arrow an example that the CW CAN do better with a new show – I believe the CW will break with tradition and cancel all three of Cult, TCD and BATB (if its numbers continue to drop.)

    The fact is the difference between Bill and Robert just provides evidence for that rather than being a real argument. Robert thinks BATB will be canceled because of its poor retention of TVD lead-in, while Bill thinks TCD will be canceled due to poor ratings and perhaps poor affiliate lead-in retention.

    Both are obviously correct and therefore both shows will be canceled.

    The CW would be insane to renew a show with a trend of .4′s in the first half of its first season, regardless of any other “advantages” the show is alleged to have.

    BATB would do worse in any other time slot given its current lead-in show which is the best the CW has to offer. Therefore BATB’s ratings would be equivalent to TCD’s if it were in any other time slot (and probably the reverse is true, although not necessarily.)

    Therefore both shows are doing crap ratings even if the season average of one is higher than the other. And if you buy Ultima’s argument that the rounding errors wipe out the season average difference, then clearly both shows are doing crap numbers.

    There isn’t even a need to make a distinction in season average any more, and in deference to Ultima I won’t bother any more. Both shows are doing crap numbers and both will be canceled UNLESS it IS true that the CW can’t afford to do so – which I don’t believe until it happens.

    So it is now irrelevant to even discuss WHICH show will be canceled. That’s a hair splitting that, if Ultima is correct, relies on something other than ratings. Both shows are doing crap ratings and both will be canceled.

    And at least as far as BATB is concerned, since the show is of relatively poor although not “awful”quality, it should be.

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