CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JulieDawn

    @Tom

    I’ve asked you this before and never received an answer, so I’m trying again. Politely, and seriously.

    Re BATB – You keep saying “what I’ve seen, the bulk of social media activity for this show comes from adolescent girls” – but I’d really like to know WHERE you are going online to come up with this idea?

    As you already know, I am an active member of the BATB social media through multiple outlets, and neither myself nor most of the others I interact with come under the heading “adolescent girls”. Sure, there are a few teens, but the majority of us range in age from mid-20s to well above the 18-49 demo, in fact most are the PARENTS of adolescents, rather than being so themselves!

    Thanks, I am serious about wanting to know what made you make your assumption.

  • Tom

    @ Herp

    One thing everyone seems to have forgotten is that B&B was at 0.7/1.84 mm viewers when it was renewed after episode 5. It got two more 0.7 ratings immediately after its holiday hiatus. After that the floor collapsed under it. I doubt if the CW anticipated that scenario at the time and I seriously doubt if the network can keep the show on the air without angering its affiliates. I mentioned in one of my earlier commentaries that about 80% of viewers still see the CW through one of its affiliates. That isn’t lost on the CW. Accordingly, last year, it provided the affiliates with 50 additional hours of new programming. This was to “compensate” the affiliates for the network’s low ratings. The new programs were to be funded by revenue from the Netflix deal.

    The CW has affiliates in all major media markets. CBS owns eight of these affiliates and the Tribune Company owns 13. For all intents, these are the guts of the affiliate network. Tribune has just emerged from four years in bankruptcy. It’s been rumored that Tribune will the restructure itself around it television assets or perhaps even sell them. Either way, it needs to be in a position where the affiliates are bringing in a steady stream of ad revenue and profits from licensing retransmission rights to cable and satellite companies. To date, that’s hardly a given. Tribune was blacked out on Cablevision and Directv last year over retransmission battles that were in part related to the low ratings of shows on the CW network.

    It’s pretty clear from the affiliates’ perspective that what’s profitable for CBS/WB/CW isn’t necessarily profitable for them. Given the significant status of Tribune in the CW organization, I doubt if the CW has the luxury of continuing to sell low rated shows to its affiliates. The affiliates are stuck with CW until 2016, but their retransmission agreements already run past then. Dropping out of the network isn’t really an option for most affiliates anyway. The major networks already have their own affiliates in most markets. Some of these are owned by other companies with CW affiliates. Ultimately, I believe the CW is going to have to invest more financial resources into producing better programing for its affiliates. It may be able to get away with keeping HOD and Nikita on the air for syndication, but that’s the limit on low rated shows. The affiliates may be contractually bound to the CW, but that obligation runs both ways. So, based on what I’ve seen to date, I expect the CW to drop Carrie and B&B, return five programs and debut five new ones.

  • Amanda

    “God, are you off base there! The CW owners have explicitly said that the network produce profitable properties that they can syndicate.”

    It’s funny how you mention something like this of what the CW owners have stated as full truth, but have countlessly ignored and call lies to the other things they’ve said numerous of times like how social media, online viewing and DVR views are also factors that play in on if a series will be renewed on the network.

  • Hannah

    Prediction: The Carrie Diaries will be renewed for 13 episodes. BaTB cancelled to make way for the originals. I hear it’s doing equally as well as BaTB overseas so that shouldn’t be a factor between them and the CW also plan to pick up a couple of other supernatural styled pilots so really there is no room for BaTB

  • starship

    “Nope. If a show isn’t making money on the ratings, it’s gone. No one has proven as far as I know that ANY given CW show has made enough money OUTSIDE of ad revenue to justify a renewal. Some shows may have been TIPPED OVER into profitability by international or other sales but there is no evidence I’m aware of that any show has been renewed strictly due to other sources than ad revenue from the local market.”

    And you still haven’t proven that ratings are the only thing that matter…writing 999 3000-word long posts saying it’s true doesn’t make it so. Lets take your favorite Nikita which is the most recent example that shows on the CW aren’t renewed solely based on ratings. The show’s ratings collapsed majorly while it was in its first season, so if they were motivated just by ratings, it should have never seen a second season, never mind a third. 90210 crashed and burned after its first season, dropping significantly but was kept on because of DVR numbers according to the CW people. Hart of Dixie was doing constant 0.6s in its first year, the network had no idea that it will remain stable in season 2 and not drop to 0.5-0.4. It was kept first of all to save face and show that not all their pilots failed and second because of the numbers it was doing online and on Hulu (again according to the CW).

    At the end of the day, you can believe whatever you want, but there’s enough evidence that ratings are only one part of the renewal of shows on the CW, at least the 18-49 ratings which this website bases their predictions on. If ratings were the only factor, the CW would only have The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, and Arrow at this point.

  • Sam

    @ Patrick

    While I understand your reasoning, Company Town is not a genre show and would make and excellent companion for Hart of Dixie.

    TCD will get cancelled for sure. I can see them renewing BatB and airing it on Fridays but I still believe it will get cancelled, no matter how well it sells overseas (which TCD doesn’t, btw).

  • Danielle

    As a TVD fan, I’m skeptical about the spin-off. Klaus is a compelling character sure but part of what makes him that way is the surrounding cast. Klaus and Damon have some really good chemistry, so do Klaus and Caroline. Take Klaus out of the equation and try to make a show fly with totally new people (ok, we know Haley, but as far as I’m concerned, that’s not a plus. She’s annoying and not well liked!) and something may be missing. Last night they already started laying the ground work, driving a wedge between Klaus and Caroline, I think to try and soften the blow of his leaving for the Klaroline shippers. It’s my experience that TVD fans are passionate about their “ships” and will not take well to the sinking hopes of Klaroline. Plus, I have doubts that the writers will be able to write two hours of original vampire drama that doesn’t end up feeling repetitious. But hey! I could be wrong. We shall see. Either way, I will follow BATB to whatever night they put it on!!

  • ILoveSitcoms

    Beauty and the Beast is sold to numerous foreign networks, 19 by my count. That may factor into the network’s decision regarding the series.

  • Holly

    @ILoveSitcoms,

    Beauty and the Beast is sold to numerous foreign networks

    Nearly ALL American shows are sold to numerous foreign networks.

  • Sarah

    @Charmed

    “And that TCD retains more of its lead in, which is probably why HOD was picked over TSC last year.”

    As has been explained by the network several times, HOD was renewed over TSC because it was cheap, with lower but stable ratings. TSC cost a lot of money to produce, and the producers didn’t do the show any favors by going on expensive location shoots. It also had poor overseas numbers, and with the tanking ratings, it was losing money every week by the end of the season. Even with lower ratings, HOD was making more money. BATB is in the same boat this year. Because it’s Canadian content, it’s cheap for the network, and it’s bringing in a lot of money from online and overseas sales. According to the producers, it also has comparable streaming views to some of the network’s biggest hits. So, despite the toss-up ratings, the show is making them money, and is in the running for a renewal for the exact same reasons HOD was renewed over TSC.

  • Ginger

    Monday
    8:00 The Tomorrow People (NEW)
    9:00 Beauty & the Beast (NEW TIME)

    Tuesday
    8:00 Hart Of Dixie
    9:00 The Selection (NEW)

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Supernatural

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals (NEW)

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Top Model / The Carrie Diaries (NEW TIME)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Amanda: “have countlessly ignored and call lies to the other things they’ve said numerous of times like how social media, online viewing and DVR views are also factors that play in on if a series will be renewed on the network.”

    First, I’ve never called “lies” the fact that networks look at DVR views. They do. It just doesn’t matter when it comes to renewal.

    Second, the reason it doesn’t matter is MONEY. Syndication means money – a significant amount of it. It’s been ESTABLISHED that social media and DVR views DO NOT impress advertisers and the revenue generated from other sources other than international sales (and DVD sales, at least in some cases) is miniscule compared to ad revenue and also compared to syndication.

    As Tom said above, social media refers to viewer engagement, not ad revenue. The advertisers care about viewer engagement because it points them to whether their ad targets are involved with the show (as opposed to random viewers). The networks obviously want their viewers to be engaged with the show to retain viewers.

    That means nothing unless it turns into ad revenue or syndication revenue and thus means nothing when it comes to renewal. Perhaps if the network considers a show “on the bubble”, meaning it has a shot at possibly growing in a second season, the social media aspect might have some impact if the profitability is not that bad. But that’s it.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “And you still haven’t proven that ratings are the only thing that matter”

    Aside from syndication, they are. Because ratings and syndication means money. International sales and DVD sales mean money, but usually are less than the previous two factors.

    Want to ask Robert and Bill their opinion about whether ratings matter?

    I’m aware that the television industry today is in flux and that the old models are changing somewhat since the fin-syn rules were abolished in 1993. Networks and production companies share revenue and production costs more than under the old rules. This changes the profitability calculations somewhat.

    But a show STILL has to MAKE MONEY to get renewed. Either it’s ad revenue is good, its syndication potential is good, its international sales make up the difference between production costs and ad revenue, maybe DVD sales help a little, maybe external deals like with Netflix help the overall profitability for the network, but the show STILL has to MAKE MONEY.

    Low-rated shows do not.

    “Lets take your favorite Nikita which is the most recent example that shows on the CW aren’t renewed solely based on ratings.”

    Oh, please! EVERYONE KNOWS Nikita was not renewed based on ratings! It was renewed based on SYNDICATION! It is precisely my POINT that Nikita had to get half-decent ratings in seasons one and two to be subsidized by the STUDIO in order to get seasons three and four for SYNDICATION.

    The problem with TCD and BATB is that their ratings are so low in SEASON ONE that they will NEVER GET to season three for syndication. A show has to MAKE MONEY in its first two seasons (perhaps only one in some cases because Warner Brothers will allegedly consider a show for syndication starting in season three, instead of four). The studios don’t recover their production costs in seasons one and two AS IT IS in many cases – 85% of production costs from license fees only – and rely on international sales and DVD sales to make up the difference.

    If a show doesn’t make money in seasons one and two because its ratings are low, it’s likely international sales won’t help and DVD sales will be low. The studio needs to dump it. Only if they have a good year and other shows make up from the loss AND they think the low-rated show is good for syndication anyway might they subsidize it. This is likely a rare occurrence.

    “The show’s ratings collapsed majorly while it was in its first season, so if they were motivated just by ratings, it should have never seen a second season”

    The 2010-11 season averaged a 0.9 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 2.37 million viewers. This was more than adequate to get it renewed on the CW.

    Season two averaged a .5 rating which was in my view just barely adequate, even given it was on a Friday. However, as I’ve said, I believe WB thinks Maggie Q being a star in Asia gives the show a syndication potential it might not otherwise have had.

    You think 90210 collapsed in its first season?

    Season one season average: 1.4
    Season two season average: 0.9
    Season three season average: 0.8
    Season four season average: 0.8

    Note: I think those are Live+Seven ratings – I can’t find better ratings – the Live+SD would be smaller but only by a tenth or so.

    “If ratings were the only factor, the CW would only have The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, and Arrow at this point.”

    And in my opinion that’s what they should do – dump everything lower than their top performers (and Nikita since it’s going for syndication.)

    But as others have pointed out, it’s unlikely the CW can actually do that, although in my view it’s not impossible. They’re likely to keep at least one more show, which I think will be HoD given its in season two with stable ratings, so it might have a shot at syndication renewal for the same reasons as Nikita.

    That does NOTHING for TCD and BATB, both of which are doing poorly in their FIRST SEASON.

  • Martine

    Another show like Arrow will not work for the CW. The exact same people watch Arrow that watch Supernatural. Its not a show that really appeals to all that many kinds of people. I don’t mean peple with similar interests, i mean probably the same exact people tune in to both. A third show for the same exact fan base might be stretching it. They need to keep trying with a show that appeals to someone other then the types that watch Supernatural and Arrow. I think they are trying for something that ties in to the Vampire Diaries. BATB is really too much of a grown up show for the CW, I think. They need to aim at their audience which is somewhere between 15 and 21.

  • starship

    “It is precisely my POINT that Nikita had to get half-decent ratings in seasons one and two to be subsidized by the STUDIO in order to get seasons three and four for SYNDICATION.”

    But this point is precisely wrong. Nikita had 0.7 for its first season finale. That was 2 years ago, when shows on every network generally had a lot higher ratings. It was still renewed, just as BatB will be renewed if it stays at its current 0.6 until the end of the season because 0.6 on the CW these days is renewal level. The $1.5 million per episode international sales won’t hurt its chances either and are a clear indicator the show has syndication potential outside of the US. Obviously, it needs to keep those numbers, but that’s hardly impossible. Now when it comes to TCD, I’ve got no idea why you even brought it up again, the show has less than 1 million total viewers and a 0.4 demo in its first season, it will probably be at 0.3 for the finale, no one is dumb enough to think it can get renewed with such numbers at this point.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Sarah: “BATB is in the same boat this year. Because it’s Canadian content, it’s cheap for the network, and it’s bringing in a lot of money from online and overseas sales.”

    International sales MIGHT tip the show over to profitability but such sales rarely make up the bulk of a studio’s revenue. Studios usually only get up to 85% of a shows production costs from license fees with international and DVD sales making up the rest. That’s for seasons one and two. If the show has syndication potential, the studio can cut the license fee for seasons three and four to get enough episodes for syndication and make the costs back in syndication.

    “According to the producers, it also has comparable streaming views to some of the network’s biggest hits.”

    Which don’t yield much in the way of revenue compared to ad revenue and international sales. That’s more of an audience engagement measure than a revenue measure and is unlikely to influence renewal much.

    “So, despite the toss-up ratings, the show is making them money, and is in the running for a renewal for the exact same reasons HOD was renewed over TSC.”

    Once again, the PROBLEM is what will the show do in SEASON TWO? It almost certainly will drop in the ratings yet again because that is what shows do – drop season to season. If BATB is barely hanging on as it is now with a .64 ratings, even if it is profitable this year, it’s unlikely to be profitable next year.

    First, it won’t hold onto the CW’s best lead-in because it will be moved either to another week night – or worse, to Friday. In either case, it’s highly likely that its season average will drop to .5 or lower as a result. Nikita was renewed with a .5 season two average, so that might not be a deal killer. But if BATB’s season average drops lower than that, I don’t see it getting renewed for season three even if the studio thinks it’s syndication material. And we won’t know that UNTIL it’s renewed for season three.

    Second, there’s a good chance its season average will drop THIS season before it ends its run. If it ends its run this season with a .5, I don’t see it getting renewed. It has I think five more episodes, so we’ll see. It either holds a .6 or above or it doesn’t.

    Third, with regard to syndication potential, I think Nikita had a better potential than BATB due to Maggie Q being big in Asia. We don’t know yet whether HoD is considered significant syndication material until it IS so renewed. The same will apply to BATB if it’s renewed for a second season.

    At best, BATB is a serious “bubble show”. Only if the CW can’t AFFORD to cancel it because it has no replacement is it likely to be renewed. Otherwise I don’t see them playing around with a marginal show when they have a lot of new pilots to choose from.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “Nikita had 0.7 for its first season finale. That was 2 years ago, when shows on every network generally had a lot higher ratings.”

    And what was the season average for ALL shows ON THE CW? The CW is not “every network” as you’ve been panting to point out. It’s the lowest rated network.

    “if it stays at its current 0.6 until the end of the season because 0.6 on the CW these days is renewal level.”

    I agree that if it STAYS at .6 it has a shot at renewal.

    First, I don’t think it will stay at .6 for the rest of the season.

    Second, as I’ve said repeatedly, is what will the show do in SEASON TWO? Shows are renewed not just because of ratings in the current season but PREDICTED RATINGS in the subsequent season. The networks KNOW that shows drop season to season.

    If BATB is barely renewable in season one – which means it’s barely making money in its first season – the CW – and more importantly the STUDIO – must KNOW that it’s not going to make money in season two, let alone once its subsidized by the studio in season three and four.

    “The $1.5 million per episode international sales won’t hurt its chances either and are a clear indicator the show has syndication potential outside of the US.”

    I’d agree with that. If the high international sales figure is correct and offsets enough of the disparity between license fees and production costs, that will definitely help. And it does indicate syndication potential – at least if the international sales figure IS reflected in international ratings. Remember that an overseas network might pay a high amount for a show just to see it fail in their ratings just like a US show or a US syndicator might. In which case, the season two international sales revenue might drop significantly.

    Of course, that’s speculative since we don’t know yet. But it’s a consideration for the studio looking at the profitability of the show in season two.

    “Obviously, it needs to keep those numbers, but that’s hardly impossible.”

    I agree.

    “no one is dumb enough to think it can get renewed with such numbers at this point.”

    I usually mention it along with BATB since they’re both close to the same level. And a LOT of people here think it will get renewed with all sorts of spurious reasons.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Just found an interesting site that lists canceled new series for each season for each network and figures the percentage. Have no idea if its accurate, but here’s the CW’s history:

    2009-2010 Season
    Drama – 4
    Canceled – 2

    50% New Series Canceled

    2010-2011 Season*
    Drama – 2
    Reality/Alternative – 2
    Canceled – 3 (1 drama; 2 reality/alternative)

    75% New Series Canceled

    2011-2012 Season
    Drama – 4
    Comedy – 0
    Reality/Alternative – 3
    Canceled – 6 (3 drama; 3 reality/alternative)

    85% New Series Canceled

    Interesting progression – and way worse than the other networks which usually cancel only 60-70 percent of new series – except for NBC in the 2010-2011 season which canceled NINETY TWO percent of its new series!

    I think the CW this year will match its 2011-2012 cancel rate. It will cancel all of EO, Cult, TCD, 90210, BATB and even HoD (unless syndication rules take over for HoD).

  • Bizarro

    If Beauty stabilizes at .6’s and .7’s I think it has a good chance at renewal. Bill has put it at a likely renewal before when it was getting .6’s and .7’s. Also as I was browsing at Nikita’s first season demo. It looks like Nikita was getting the same demo as Beauty is getting right now. Now that was two seasons ago and the CW has lost some viewers since then. If Beauty can stay in the .9 index and get .6’s and .7’s. The fact that it airs in about 20 countries and it is a cheap production for the CW is a plus for them. Then it has a good chance of renewal. If it falls out of the .9 index and stabilizes at .5’s then its bye bye Beauty. Beauty is fighting for its life unlike TCD. Beauty has 6 more eps to prove itself if it continues to stabilize at last nights ep or get higher. I do see another season of Beauty. The CW has eight pilots and I predict that the CW will pick six pilots to order for next season. (Possibly four in the fall and two midseason replacement). Another plus is the CW only puts returning shows on friday and since Hart is doing quite fine against its competition on tuesdays. I don’t think the CW wants to move Hart to fridays just yet.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bizarro: Where did you find Nikita’s first season demo listing? I can’t find one at the site I usually use. All I can find are season two and season three. I’d really like to see the season one demo listing for all season one episodes.

    I don’t see BATB ever hitting .7 again, although it’s not impossible. I think the best it can hope for is .6, and I was surprised that it managed to hold onto that this week after three episodes of .5.

    It has six more episodes to hold onto that season average. I don’t think it can do it. And there’s still the problem of what it might do in season two. Can it hold a .5 season average in season two like Nikita did? Doubtful. Not impossible, but doubtful. The show just isn’t good enough in quality (which proves nothing, but IMO is still an influence on ratings.)

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