CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bizarro: Never mind about the ratings. I went through all the TVBTN posts for Nikita season one and wrote them down myself.

    Nikita was actually pretty stable all of season one, hovering between .8 and 1,0 for most of the season, with only two .6’s, one early in the season and one near the end, and only three .7’s in its last nine episodes, one at the finale. It’s season average was .9 which is much better than BATB’s .64.

    So I don’t see any comparison between Nikita season one and BATB season one even taking into account the CW season to season drops in overall ratings. And again, the CW can’t continue renewing low rated shows by excusing itself that it has an overall lousy season average for all its shows. That’s a good reason NOT to renew low rated shows unless they have absolutely no choice because they have no pilots to replace them with.

  • Walter

    If Beauty and the Beast gets renewed, then its going to go live on Fridays with Nikita. If it doesn’t, then I expect Hart of Dixie would get shipped off to Fridays, and the CW would start Monday and Tuesday as two brand new nights (some variation of Company Town and Oxygen & The Tomorrow People and the Selection). Wednesdays would be left alone, and The Originals would be placed in the 9 slot on Thursdays.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Walter: That’s pretty much how I see it. If HoD remains stable at its current level in a season three, without dropping much in its current time slot, then BATB probably goes to Friday if renewed and HoD stays where it is.

    It’s possible HoD might go to Friday rather than BATB, but the CW would have to try BATB on another week night first to see if it can survive on a week night without TVD’s lead-in. Because they know BATB won’t do well on Friday. Then it might be moved mid-season to Friday if it doesn’t do well on another week night.

  • Nisha

    TCD shouldn’t be canceled..=(…It’s great show..=D

  • feinn

    I think batb could be canceled based off tsc never got a .6 to episode 18 which batb got in episode 3 and never got a .5 to episode 19…with tvd ratings equal with last year it should be a comparison …funny how that tsc fell off the cliff the last 5 epidodes

  • Solelle

    I really don’t care if BATB and or TCD is cancelled as long as Hart of Dixie is renewed of the three it is the freshest and best written. It reminds me a little of the feeling WB shows had in the 1990s you know the ” Oh what a night” weekly lineup they had. for about 5 to 6 years there WB knew what they where doing. Then they merged and we got the freakin CW which is not bad but is no WB

  • NewGuy

    What CW should do next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Hundred
    9:00 – Oxygen

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie
    9:00 – Beauty and the Beast

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 -

  • NewGuy

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model

  • Win

    two 1.0’s in a row for Hod with Live + 7 #wop!

  • lois

    Hope Carries diaries get renewed and nikkia too. Don’t care about hart of Dixie. People don’t know what the at cw will do. Hart of Dixie is canceled anyway ?

  • wenros

    No they can’t cancle carrie daries I’m hooked and I loved it.. first they cancled secret circle and that shoew was freakinawsome and the cancled it on its third season which really sucked..please don’t cancle the carie daries pull the plug on beauty and the best

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