CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Z

    [There’s no way they will cancel both, where is the money for five sci fi shows!? ]

    Here we go again, with the silly excuses, short memory or you were hibernating last season?. CW picked up FIVE pilots, yes 5. ARROW, EMILY OWENS MD, CULT,BEAUTY AND THE BEAST,CARRIE DIARIES.
    You may even get a bigger surprise this season with CW picking up maybe 5+. They are not going to keep lowly rated shows, if they can pick up many pilots that show potential.

    And yes HOD can be paired with pretty much anything lol. It was paired with Cult remember, two complete different genre. Some TCD fans are becoming too desperate here. TCD renewal or not will depend on its ratings.

  • Renee

    I agree with Bill. I think Carrie Diaries is gone, and Beauty and the Beast has a slight chance but it’s probably gone too.

  • Same

    I think BATB will be renewed over TCD. With DVR numbers BATB averages 0.8 , with DVR numbers TCD averages a 0.6 .

  • Michael

    Does anyone know, if Carrie Diaries is making a profit overseas? I just can’t see Mark Pedowitz cancelling it, considering more than half of the shows on the network are at a .7 or below. Of course, with the exception of the trinity: Vampire Diaries, Arrow, and Supernatural.

  • Alan

    As much as I like TCD I’m just hoping it gets renewed. BATB should be cancelled. It’s doing slightly better than TSC this time last year, so I don’t see a reason it should be renewed. TCD faces tough competition, while BATB doesn’t, besides a freshman show should have a lead-in.

  • Dan

    I agree with Robert on this one, CW never renews 2 fall dramas and BATB looks in worse shape then Carrie Diaries overall. I would think CW would give TCD a chance over BATB only because TCD does better for Mondays while CW already has The Originals set for Thur at 9 so BATB would have to be moved to Another night in which the show would get lower ratings. Call me a retentionista but If one gets renewed it would be TCD although if both get Axed I wouldn’t be shocked.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    “Therefore BATB’s ratings would be equivalent to TCD’s if it were in any other time slot (and probably the reverse is true, although not necessarily.)”

    To clarify, I mean that if the shows switched time slots with each other, they would do the ratings that the other show is currently doing, i.e., TCD would be benefiting from while not retaining much of TVD’s ratings, and BATB would be benefiting from and not retaining much of TCD’s affiliate lead-in.

    And in particular, if BATB were in any other time slot except its current slot OR TCD’s slot, it probably would be doing TCD numbers.

  • Alan

    @Richard
    I thought you were crazy for BATB

  • Same

    @alan TCD does have a lead in . In fact the lead in at 7:30 averages a 0.7.

  • Splum

    Go, Bear! Hope anything gets cancelled but BATB. Not holding my breath.

  • Jarrod

    Ironically enough, Nikita is being renewed. I love Nikita, don’t get me wrong, but it’s just so ironic that regardless of the season it’s in that it’ll be renewed over BATB and TCD. I look forward to the CW announcing the renewals of HOD and Nikita soon.
    IF Pedowitz had given 90210 a season 6, 10-12 episode pick-up and left it to air at the beginning of next Fall, then they wouldn’t be in the predicament of picking which to cancel – they could have canceled both! Either way, I think BATB has a better chance over TCD. CW will have to renew at least 6 shows and with 3 already done, they have their pick of what’s left – Nikita and HOD are definite. Besides, BATB has the sci-fi, action AND drama angle, which gives it a better chance at surviving on The CW since they’re going for the whole action/sci-fi angle as of late.

  • Renee

    @Alan “@Richard – I thought you were crazy for BATB.”

    My impression is he watches it, but hates it.

  • SS

    “may has nothing to do with it, cw wanted to air the full season together for momentum as opposed to splits to carry it through may.”

    Good one Gerry

    I forgot how well that worked for Ringer. Oh wait…

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Alan: “I thought you were crazy for BATB”

    NEVER!

    I’ve merely been pointing out that the season average for BATB is slightly higher than TCD’s which is why I said it has “A” shot, however bad, of getting renewal.

    If Ultima is right that the difference is statistically insignificant, than that no longer matters. If BATB’s season average of .64 is no different than TCD’s .49, then it’s doing no better than TCD and should be canceled right along with TCD.

    And it should certainly be canceled if that season average drops below, say. .6, I can’t prove that it will, of course, but I think that it very well might once the DST effect sets in and in a manner similar to the collapse of Ringer last season.

    I view Ringer as a show very similar to BATB. I think it had a large female component that liked the “soap opera” nature of Ringer, and it had a lot of SMG fans – but it collapsed in the spring. I think BATB will do the same.

  • Loke

    TCD and BATB both should be cancelled.

    TCD is down to almost a million viewers now and its only at episode 10. This shouldnt even be a debate, automatic cancellation.

    BATB, its ratings keep falling too, its only going down. Should be canned, its never gonna grow, its just not a compelling show with a compelling premise except to those “beasties”.

  • Martin

    Didn’t Carrie Diaries get 0.5 this week, hope it doesn’t get adjusted down, and can see BATB going the way of TSC and have a late season surge downwards.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Jarrod: “Ironically enough, Nikita is being renewed. I love Nikita, don’t get me wrong, but it’s just so ironic that regardless of the season it’s in that it’ll be renewed over BATB and TCD. I look forward to the CW announcing the renewals of HOD and Nikita soon.”

    Not really ironic – just the power of syndication. Money from running a show for years after its first run is over is very significant for the networks.

    I also want to clarify that while I think HoD has a SHOT at renewal for syndication reasons, that is not a certainty until it actually happens – just like Nikita. We KNOW Nikita was renewed for syndication because it WAS renewed. We won’t KNOW HoD is being renewed for syndication until it IS so renewed.

    But the odds favor HoD being renewed for syndication because it’s been stable (if low-rated) and it’s in its season two. It’s season average isn’t as good as Nikita’s season two average, however.

    Still, I think it will be renewed for syndication reasons, and also IF it’s true the CW can’t afford to cancel it due to lack of a replacement. As I’ve said before, if I were them, I would cancel it. But I think they won’t.

  • Flame

    The gap is closing in. Last week it was Beauty 0.95 – 0.90 Bluebell, not they are within 0.02 points. Can they overtake it before the finish line? :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Didn’t Carrie Diaries get 0.5 this week”

    That was last night’s preliminary rating, but this post was already written earlier, and as noted includes results through 3/17 only.

  • Roswell

    I love when Richard talks bad about other shows he thinks its okay, when we talk bad about his precious Nikita he gets all but hurt, what a troll

    On a side note: TCD is canceled at this point. Honestly I think they would have a better chance of bringing back 90210.. If one had to be renewed, I’d certainly go with BATB

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