CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Roswell: As usual, you can’t comprehend the difference between an honest opinion – usually backed by reasons when I’m talking specifically and primarily about a show’s quality in a post – versus random snark unsupported by either reasons or historical accuracy – which is what you do.

    It’s precisely the sort of comment you just posted that makes YOU the troll.

    And then you trolls whine about it when I kick your teeth in by a straightforward criticism of your lame behavior.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Let everyone note here just WHO STARTED this argument. It sure as hell wasn’t me.

    I merely said BATB being of poor quality should be canceled. That’s not snark and that was not “talking bad”. It was a straightforward opinion (although since the post was not primarily about that, but about RATINGS, I didn’t bother to support it with reasons like I usuall do.)

    In response, I get called a troll from someone known for snark about Nikita.

  • rick

    Carrie had a nice increase last night.

  • Roswell

    Lol @ Richard I made one comment about Nikita and you blew it up and called me a troll. If you look at everyone else that posts you’ll see I’m not a troll. I hardly ever talk about Nikita… Soooo?? Just leave it alone cause all you’re doing is pissing people off and being a child. So I’m gunna be the bigger person and disregard everything negative you’ve said to me and just leave it at you have your opinions (not facts) and I have mine.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Rick: True. But while I’m not one to say any show “adjusts down every week”, and I have no idea what TCD does in that respect, we really should wait for the finals just as I do for Nikita.

    While I wouldn’t be surprised if TCD retained its .5 rating, it’s against its recent four episode trend of .4’s. Since I don’t watch the show, however, I have no idea if it’s story arc is becoming more or less compelling, so anything is possible.

    I DO watch BATB and it’s not clear to me that it’s been any more compelling lately, so I’d be surprised if its ratings went up over the next few weeks.

  • starship

    TCD is getting cancelled. It is getting a million total viewers (probably less than that after adjustments) for it’s tenth episode. I know Bill keeps insisting that total viewers don’t matter, but at the end of the day, if you’re forced to choose one of two turds in the 18-49 rating, everything else begins to matter, especially BATB’s hefty international sales. Moreover, the CW have ordered 8 pilots, even if they were to pick as many as 6 of them, they’ll still want to save a couple for Spring to replace the ones that fail in the first half of the season. With ANTM banished to summer, they’ll need either another 1 hour unscripted (which usually do terrible numbers for them) or just have 10-13 episodes of BATB as schedule filler on Friday. And that’s if they decide to premiere 4 new scripted series, if they go with 3, they’ll need both an unscripted and BATB or 2 unscripted. I am confident that the CW won’t hesitate to cancel BATB if it falls to TCD rating levels, after all an unscripted show will pull the same ratings but be much cheaper, but otherwise I’m leaning more towards it getting a limited episode second season.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Roswell: Big of you after you just called me a troll out of the blue merely for saying BATB is of poor quality.

    The mark of a true Internet troll is INITIATING inflammatory rhetoric (or snark) in a thread where it didn’t exist previously.

  • Just Desserts

    The Carrie Diaries is a better show to renew, Beauty has clearly outlived its welcome mat.

  • Ted Craig

    If it’s one or the other, I still think TCD might have an edge because I suspect it’s a better venue for some advertisers. That’s assuming the rating difference isn’t big enough to drive that decision alone.

  • halloween

    Batb should be canceled too, because it will only be .4 or lower next season. CW needs to take chances. Unless their pilots are as bad at last years pilots. Canceled

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Starship: I haven’t generally considered the possibility that BATB would get a short season order for use as “spackle” in the schedule or for Fridays after Nikita. I suppose that’s not an unreasonable possibility.

    For “spackle” is one thing. But moving BATB to Friday would have to be strictly to fill that slot after Nikita. BATB would undoubtedly do as badly as Nikita did in that slot or at best a tenth of a point higher.

    The problem with that is that BATB would only be in its second season. Shows need to do well starting their second season to reach a syndication renewal for a third season. Based on Nikita, it doesn’t matter if they end up doing a .6 or even a .5 at the END of season two, but it clearly matters whether they make money for the studio during their second season.

    Studios can only afford to subsidize a show in seasons three and four if they’ve made some money in seasons one and two. Otherwise ALL shows reaching season two would get seasons three and four for syndication. And that’s not the case.

    I view this as the most important reason why BATB will not get renewed. If it IS renewed, they’d pretty much have to move it to Friday, since they aren’t going to debut any of their new shows there and they’ll likely need BATB to be moved to make room for them. If they put it on any other night, it will likely do as badly as TCD is doing now or worse (being in season two) and that again violates the rule that the show needs to do reasonably well in season two to get a season three.

    The CW can come to these same conclusions so I don’t see why they would renew BATB under these conditions.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    I really should pose this to Robert but applies to you as well:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t most networks that have shows ~80% or above their network avg, have bubble & those that are 90% have likely renewed?

    Just b/c CW’s network is really struggling outside of the Top 3, doesn’t mean that a 94% BATB, shouldn’t be treated just like any other network. Esp since it is the best % of the rest of the network.

    Granted, it’s only going to have 1 full season under it’s belt. Granted, TVD is the best lead in possible on CW, affiliates as well. Granted, it’s a foregone conclusion that it will be moved next season.

    However, they don’t have the funds to go down to 5 returning shows. TVD has a fanbase that goes online instead of watching what’s next. Which means that BATB is kind of like a self starter & in that case, with it being a 94%/4th best, I think likely renewal or at least top of the bubble is a much better anaylsis.

    As far as TCD goes, 79% is bottom of the bubble. CW could renew both & focus really hard on just 3 new shows in order to do a more one new show hit at a time approach. They could renew TCD for a short season with full season based on ratings, that way advertisers see no holes in the schedule. Yes, 79% for a first short season is not good. But, I wouldn’t say it’s “effectively cancelled” yet.

    So, in the end, I think BATB & TCD could both be cancelled & both be renewed. I give BATB a much stronger case. I don’t think any reasonable circumstance(s) allows for TCD over BATB.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Ted Craig: “If it’s one or the other, I still think TCD might have an edge because I suspect it’s a better venue for some advertisers.”

    You raise an interesting point. What really matters to the NETWORK – as opposed to the ADVERTISERS – is not the ratings at all but the profitability. If advertisers are willing to pay a higher price for TCD than for BATB for some reason, that WOULD skew the likelihood of renewal between them.

    The problem is we aren’t privy to those numbers. So all we have to go by are the ratings, which MOST advertisers are also probably going by. So the effect of SOME advertisers preferring TCD over BATB would have to outweigh the rest of the advertisers for that show. Again, we can’t know this.

    Since predictions here have been pretty successful based on ratings alone, I think we can discount this effect. But it’s certainly not impossible.

  • sasha

    CW has stated numemrous times it DOES look at what shows do online and socially Bill. I would think you’d know that.

  • Dan

    That’s true if BATB were airing another night it would probably pull a .3 to .4 all the more reason to not renew it. The Carrie Diaries gets that on its own so it’s a better keeper for Monday with Hart of Dixie. If TCD doesn’t adjust down this week and over the next few weeks it will be more likely to return. Keeping a .5 will help the series.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @sasha

    Yes cuz we should believe everything the execs say and not the obvious proof that’s in our face.

    Exec on 90210 on Jan 14 :He also suggested that 90210 would make a return, likely for its swan song. “I am a big believer in giving fans a very satisfactory conclusion,” he said. “It’s something that we as a television industry need to do.”

    And 90210 is cancelled….so yea.

  • buttondiet

    Why would Carrie Diaries get renewed instead of Beauty and the Beast? TCD has been a big flop since it premiered.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “CW has stated numemrous times it DOES look at what shows do online and socially Bill. I would think you’d know that.”

    Apparently you’re as gullible as the CW PR people had hoped!

  • Peter

    They cant cancel BATB it won Peoples Choice for Best New Drama lol.

  • starship

    @Dan
    The statement that BATB will be doing worse on any other night (apart from Friday is pure speculation). Yes, it has TVD as led-in, but also goes against Grey’s Anatomy, POI, and Glee which are powerhouses in the 18-49 for their respective networks, while GA is also very female-skewing, which is one of the major reasons while post-TVD shows targeting women can never catch a break in my opinion. Also one of the reasons why they might be smart to premiere a male oriented show after TVD and save The Originas for another night as it has a built-in fanbase already, but I don’t think they have such a pilot, sadly.
    Back to the whole BATB vs TCD, if BATB was on another night, it would have a weaker lead in, but it’s competition would be totally different, so it could actually have better ratings or at least the same ones. In TCD case, its only competition in terms of audience is ABC Family, thus if it was on another night, never mind in the post-TVD spot, it would be doing much worse than BATB, but that’s just my own 2 cents.

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