CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • David Howell

    I’m tempted to give both a 40% renewal chance. Which translates to a 20% chance of going with only five scripted shows returning.

    I’d certainly want to cancel both if I were Mr. Pedowitz, but he sees numbers I (and all of us) don’t!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t most networks that have shows ~80% or above their network avg, have bubble & those that are 90% have likely renewed?”

    Generally, yes. But in BATB’s case the spring average paints a much rosier picture than its most recent episodes do.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Anna Bones Clarkwood:

    “Just b/c CW’s network is really struggling outside of the Top 3, doesn’t mean that a 94% BATB, shouldn’t be treated just like any other network. Esp since it is the best % of the rest of the network.”

    An interesting point. While BATB certainly seems to be doing significantly better than TCD based on the R/C Index figure, it’s still significantly under the next best show (Supernatural). I think that given the CW’s situation, they SHOULD be more oriented to cleaning house rather than acting like a regular network in this regard.

    I’ve been cutting BATB some slight slack due to its season average being slightly higher than TCD’s which is reflected in its R/C Index position. But I’m more inclined to be concerned about what it would do NEXT season if it were renewed. I think that will have more impact on the renewal decision than its current position.

    However, you could be more right than I am.

    “However, they don’t have the funds to go down to 5 returning shows.”

    I don’t think anyone can prove that. It’s purely speculative.

    “Which means that BATB is kind of like a self starter”

    OR one can take the position that I do: that the fact that BATB can’t hold much (if not all) of TVD’s lead-in means that its ratings are in fact pretty much what it would do if it were moved to another time slot. Or worse. It’s presumably benefiting SOMEWHAT from TVD, if not as much as it SHOULD be.

    So we can’t really say it’s a “self-starter” when it has the best lead-in the CW has to offer. We can’t even say that about TCD which has a .7 affiliate lead-in.

    “As far as TCD goes, 79% is bottom of the bubble.”

    In my view, it’s worse than that. Because the CW has such low-rated shows, its “bottom of the bubble” is much worse than any other network. While we can’t be sure how that really impacts the network, it’s GOT to be of some significant concern to them.

    Given that Arrow shows that they CAN produce shows that deliver decent ratings – for the CW, anyway – they should be concerned about shows that only do a season average of .5-.6 in their first season. With Arrow doing a relatively stable 1.0-1.1 season average, they should be trying to do better than .5-.6 especially for first season shows.

    Again, the issue is what happens in season two? To get shows to syndication, which is CW goal, a show needs to do well in its first two seasons to be subsidized by the studio for seasons three and four. So a show doing .5-.6 in season one is almost certainly going to lose money in season two.

    “CW could renew both & focus really hard on just 3 new shows in order to do a more one new show hit at a time approach.”

    Why try for just one new hit? The risk of failure of a show doesn’t change depending on how many other shows are new – assuming the promotion budget allows for promoting all of them. If that’s the case, the CW is in even worse shape. There’s nothing stopping them from promoting all new shows equally if they can’t afford to promote them all at high levels. That may or may not make a difference in the end.

    “They could renew TCD for a short season with full season based on ratings”

    Problem is they pretty much can see that any second season is going to do worse than season one. To play the odds, you have to know the odds. The odds are almost any show will do worse in season two than season one. If season one sucks, there’s no logic in renewing the show to do worse in season two – unless you literally have no choice because you have nothing to replace it with.

    “that way advertisers see no holes in the schedule.”

    My guess is the CW can come up with better ways to fill holes in the schedule.

    “I don’t think any reasonable circumstance(s) allows for TCD over BATB.”

    Agreed.

  • Tom

    “…they’ve never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows….”

    When’s the last time that 70% of the CW’s weekly shows were rated at or below a 0.6 demo?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “The Carrie Diaries gets that on its own so it’s a better keeper for Monday with Hart of Dixie.”

    I still can’t fathom what EVIDENCE you think you can produce that TCD is a “better keeper for Monday” or what that even means. As I’ve said repeatedly, the CW is concerned about making money. That means ad revenue needs to exist for ANY show to be considered for renewal (in season one and two – syndication subsidy can handle seasons three and four) BEFORE any OTHER consideration comes into play.

    The CW isn’t just concerned with presenting a “pretty schedule” to the point where it will renew a show which is clearly failing in season one and will undoubtedly fail worse in season two.

  • Amy

    Do the bear and Robert have any money riding on this? ;)

  • eselle28

    I agree that if only one of the two shows is cancelled, it will be TCD. HoD is only being renewed because it’s the oldest and the most stable of a very poorly-rated group of shows. There’s a very good chance that after next season, it will spend its final year in Nikita’s Friday death slot. It doesn’t have enough power to influence the network’s other decisions.

    Even if none of the realistic CW pilots get picked up, the network could still pair HoD with a reality show, or it could move it to 9:00 and pair it with a genre program. At this point, the 8:00 slot has proven more successful for the CW anyway. Why not start a new program there and accept that it and HoD may never share a fanbase? It’s not the ideal of having the same viewer watch the channel all night, but it’s better than having a night devoted to .4 or .5 ratings.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “The statement that BATB will be doing worse on any other night (apart from Friday is pure speculation).”

    I don’t think we can call it “pure” speculation. Obviously we can’t PROVE it. But the mere fact that BATB doesn’t hold much of the best lead-in the CW has pretty much indicates it would not do better in any other time slot (let alone Friday as you correctly state.)

    “Yes, it has TVD as led-in, but also goes against Grey’s Anatomy, POI, and Glee which are powerhouses in the 18-49 for their respective networks, while GA is also very female-skewing, which is one of the major reasons while post-TVD shows targeting women can never catch a break in my opinion.”

    This may be true. But you’d have to identify a slot where it would face significantly less competition as well as enabling the REST of the CW lineup to do what they are currently doing (or better) to prove it. THAT is speculative, too.

    I’m not really that concerned about comparing BATB’s ratings vs TCD or any other show. I’m also not that concerned about the lead-in. What concerns me is the BATB’s ratings in a season two would almost certainly be worse than this season. Shows drop season to season far more often than not. So if the show is barely hanging on to a season average of .64 now, and since it WILL be moved to another time slot in a season two (so The Originals can claim that slot), HOW can we say it makes sense to renew BATB?

    “save The Originas for another night as it has a built-in fanbase already,”

    You may be right about that. But I don’t think the CW will assume that. It would be safer for them to let The Originals take the post-TVD slot. That gives the show the BEST chance it will have to do well AND make Thursday night their guaranteed best night of the week. Of course, neither of use can prove this until it happens.

    “if BATB was on another night, it would have a weaker lead in, but it’s competition would be totally different, so it could actually have better ratings or at least the same ones.”

    Again, exactly which night would you put it on where it would have that weaker competition? Having the same ratings really wouldn’t help, given the reasons I cite above about the loss of ratings in season two.

  • starship

    @Richard

    I can’t be bothered to respond to each essay you post every couple of posts, but just to answer your question about a less competitive time-slot for a female skewing drama -> Tuesday at 8 or 9 and Monday at 8 are good examples.

  • poweranimals

    Can the CW really afford to cancel both?

  • eselle28

    Err, well that’s embarrassing. For whatever reason, I thought HoD was at 8:00 and TCD is at 9:00. Either way, I don’t think HoD needs to be paired with something compatible. Let a new show get a lead in from syndication and expect HoD to take care of itself – which it’s done a reasonable job at over the last couple years.

    My schedule:

    MONDAY:
    8 – Reality
    9 – Hart of Dixie

    TUESDAY:
    8 – New Genre Drama
    9 – New Genre Drama

    WEDNESDAY:
    8 – Arrow
    9 – Supernatural

    THURSDAY:
    8 – The Vampire Diaries
    9 – The Originals (In 3 years, TVD has been followed by 3 failures. Its fans aren’t interested in other programming. Just make it a vampire-themed night and stabilize the slot.)

    FRIDAY:
    8 – ANTM/Reruns
    9 – Nikita

  • Tom

    @starship

    The ratings history of B&B is relatively straightforward. It started well and lost half its demo by the third episode. After the holidays, it rebounded to a 0.7 and then quickly lost ratings again. So, it’s not as if viewers haven’t shown an interest in this program. There’s something about B&B that drives off viewers and moving it won’t change anything.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Can the CW really afford to cancel both?”

    Of course they can.

  • PurpleDrazi

    “Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they’ve never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7)”

    And that’s worked out so well for them. ;-)

  • Tom

    “Can the CW really afford to cancel both?”

    The B&B and Carrie are productions are funded by the CBS/WB joint venture and aired on the CW. From what I can determine, the joint venture received has a limited budget for new productions. If CBS and the WB want to increase the joint venture’s project development budget, they can do it. The question, however, is whether they wish to make the additional investment. I doubt if anyone can answer that.

  • Holly

    @Tom,

    The B&B and Carrie are productions are funded by the CBS/WB joint venture and aired on the CW.

    Actually, BatB is produced by CBS, no WB involvement.

  • Joseph

    Bill Gorman:

    If The CW goes with two reality shows (including “America’s Next Top Model”) next season, I would think they’ll run back-to-back on Fridays.

  • Bizarro

    @Michael
    NO not really at all, the only country that I know of that picked it up is in Canada. That gives Beauty an upper hand since about 20 countries have picked it up and countries are still deciding whether to pick up TCD or not. Time is running out for the international factor for TCD and this gives Beauty an upper hand.

  • Z

    CW should Revamp Monday and Tuesday. Move HoD to Friday with Nikita.
    5 new shows. 4 of them on Monday and Tuesday and one after TVD.

  • Joseph

    I think our own Cancellation Bear will devour and eat up “Carrie Diaries” within the next few days, with “Nikita” moving from Fridays at Mondays at 8 P.M. (EDT/PDT) for the rest of the season.

    Each week’s “Nikita” episode might get rerun in the Friday night at 8 (ET/PT) slot for the rest of the season, with Fridays next Fall becoming an all-reality block (“America’s Next Top Model”, preceded or followed by another reality show).

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