CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


75795a1ead96a9690431c332662e67ed

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

-
The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ian

    I’m with Robert. Batb will get cancelled. Tcd can stay, it gets the same numbers batb does, with a worse leadin. Batb likely to go, tcd has better chances.

  • gerry

    @SS

    That was the intention of the CW. Unfortunately, I not in charge of CW so i don’t control their scheduling. But, as a big fan of Ringer I can tell you there was a HUGE split between the fall and spring, which is when the numbers dropped.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Bill, so you are saying BATB is on the decline more so than the network avg? If so, yes, I agree about “rosier”.

    @RSH, you make a lot of good points & I don’t care to point by point reply to them esp when you’ve got me on your side.

    Yes, Arrow is proven to be a hit as has TVD, 4 years ago. Other than that, all the network has to show for it is Nikita which is limping to s4 & HOD which may or may not limp along as well. So, to say that they can get another “hit” based on Arrow’s success is preposterous.

    As far as funding for a bunch of one and done with possible “Arrow” like success out of hopefully at least one maybe more that is unknown. A few inclinations on how much $ they do have.
    1. They have all spring long a repeat hour, mostly Fridays, preplanned, with low demo’s.
    2. Shows with horrible ratings compared to network avg, last longer on the schedule than other networks.
    3. As stated b4, they have yet to go down to a only 5 show renewal season. 4. Their horrible demo state of the network.
    5. Renewing Nikita after s2′s demo, knowing full well that to get to 88eps, it would most likely limp along.

    At some point, actors/staff (more ideally the studios/bosses) are going to have to demand less $, since year to year demo ratings are in general down across the board and thus at first the profit margin is down and then second something must give.

    If CW isn’t able to turn a profit from shows that have a 1st season run of .5, with a lower demo for s2 & 3/4. Then, how do most cable networks survive? It can’t be the small $ they get from their share of the cable bills.

    Yes, BATB & TCD’s 2nd year future demo ratings do not look good. However, neither did Nikita’s 3rd & 4th or HOD’s 3 & 4th. Neither does CW as a Network. Which means that there is enough chance, compared to Network avg, even though BATB/TCD/CW all are down, the % of Network avg remains about the same.

    Now, if CW really thinks that they have pilots that could be the next Arrow/TVD. Or, if they prefer one & done with better s1 ratings than a second season of BATB/TCD with an outside chance of getting at least a Nikita/HOD. Then, by all means, cancel both. And, yes, they could go with a new cheap reality if funding for 5+ new pilots proves too costly.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “Tuesday at 8 or 9 and Monday at 8 are good examples.”

    You think going up against NCIS or DWTS and another NCIS on Tuesday is a good idea? (I’m too lazy to look up Monday.)

    Not to mention this still doesn’t address the issue of season to season drop.

  • Fernando

    I think the Carrie diaries and The beauty are the beast are silly shows with no plot and future. I think they both should be cancelled otherwise the CW will be losing a large amount of money. I think they didn’t make a good decision when they suddenly cancelled the secret cirlce and left us with that cliffhanger. I also think they should cancel every show that isn’t doing well and broadcast NEW SHOWS with new original plots(not spin off’s of the vampire diaries), nothing to do with vampires,witches, etc.I think the CW must face its reality and have an extreme makeover.

  • rose

    BATB IS MUCH BETTER THAN TCD

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Joseph: “If The CW goes with two reality shows (including “America’s Next Top Model”) next season, I would think they’ll run back-to-back on Fridays.”

    No. That would require moving Nikita which they can’t do for syndication reasons.

  • Tom

    “Actually, BatB is produced by CBS, no WB involvement….”

    And the Carrie Diaries is produced by Warners. What that indicates is that CBS and the WB are using their production facilities to produce programs for the WB under their joint venture agreement.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Joseph: I don’t see them moving Nikita. It can’t do any better on any other night than the .3-.4 it’s doing on Fridays. If they can get decent ratings from a reality show, why stick it on Fridays?

    My guess is they’ll either move HoD in a third season to Friday either before or after Nikita, or leave the post-Nikita slot for reality and reruns.

  • TimsDale4ever

    What is the bear doing? — this picture just kills me.

  • tscchope

    There is absolutely no synergy between The Vampire Diaries and Beauty and the Beast. One’s about vampires and the other isn’t. There’s no reason to suppose Beauty and the Beast would do worse in any other slot Mon-Thur.

    This is a ratings site and comparisons are what this site is all about. Of the 5 new shows on CW thi season, 2 have alraedy been cancelled and only one renewed. TTCD is struggling. If it maintains its 0.5 latest rating in the finals, it will still be in with a mathematical shout of renewal. I use renewal there in the same sense ot was used in Logan’s Run. It’s doing less well ratings wise of the three shows on which no decision has been made.

    To cancel Beauty and the Beast would mean only 1 out of 5 reached a second season. Moving the show to Friday at 9:00 PM would be its final season and it likely wouldn’t do any better than Nikita and Cult have done this.

    The 0.2 for a Hart of Dixie repeat is not a good indicator for its success in syndication. One poor episode rating is not a prediction of a likely fail in syndication, but this one indicator does the show no favours

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Anna Bones Clarkwood: “to say that they can get another “hit” based on Arrow’s success is preposterous.”

    I wouldn’t call it “preposterous”. They DID do well with one show this season. Yes, they did poorly with every other new show. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try.

    “A few inclinations on how much $ they do have.
    1. They have all spring long a repeat hour, mostly Fridays, preplanned, with low demo’s.”

    But Fridays are the dead night for every network, so why does this matter?

    “2. Shows with horrible ratings compared to network avg, last longer on the schedule than other networks.”

    So far. Given the year to year drop in the network’s average ratings, they can’t keep that up. They need to do some house cleaning and start taking risks on new shows.

    “3. As stated b4, they have yet to go down to a only 5 show renewal season.”

    As someone else said, how well has that been working?

    “4. Their horrible demo state of the network.”

    Which I argue means they will start canceling shows. While they probably CAN do worse than they are now, at this point it would seem to me they need to start trying to reverse that. I think the introduction of more genre shows this season indicates they are so trying.

    “5. Renewing Nikita after s2?s demo, knowing full well that to get to 88eps, it would most likely limp along.”

    I think that’s purely a syndication issue. Given the show is banished to Friday, if WB gave the CW a decent deal, so the show is still either profitable or break even, the CW doesn’t care about Nikita’s ratings. The studios subsidize shows in seasons three and four and that’s a good deal for the network as long as the show is on the “dead night” anyway.

    “If CW isn’t able to turn a profit from shows that have a 1st season run of .5, with a lower demo for s2 & 3/4. Then, how do most cable networks survive? It can’t be the small $ they get from their share of the cable bills.”

    I’ve no idea how cable networks work. My understanding is that it’s all subscribers and presumably they manage somehow. Comparing it to the CW probably isn’t feasible.

    “Yes, BATB & TCD’s 2nd year future demo ratings do not look good. However, neither did Nikita’s 3rd & 4th or HOD’s 3 & 4th.”

    But again, studio subsidization of shows in the third and fourth seasons makes that mostly irrelevant to the network, whereas the studio can’t afford to subsidize the shows in season one and two. So the ratings for seasons one and two HAVE to be better than seasons three and four to get that all important season three.

    “Neither does CW as a Network. Which means that there is enough chance, compared to Network avg, even though BATB/TCD/CW all are down, the % of Network avg remains about the same.”

    But being “relative” only works as long as the network is doing its job: being profitable and producing shows for syndication by the parent studios. The CW can’t keep dropping year to year forever. While unlike some people here I don’t predict its future as disappearing somewhere around the year 2015, because I have no idea about its actual profitability or its effect on its parents profitability, the network has to TRY to avoid disappearing at all. It can’t go down to renewing shows doing .1-.3 first season averages just because its overall network average drops.

    “Now, if CW really thinks that they have pilots that could be the next Arrow/TVD”

    It’s not so much that they think they DO have such pilots, it’s that they have no choice but to try. Presumably they pick the best pilots they can. That hasn’t worked out this season, certainly, with one hit out of four shows. But they still have to try. A twenty-five percent success rate isn’t that bad.

    As I’ve said, the network seems to do well with genre shows. If we limit the comparison to them, out of two genre shows introduced this year – BATB and Arrow (I’m not sure we can count Cult as “genre” in the same sense – they had one hit and one failure, fifty percent success. That’s not that bad, which is probably why the pilots they’re considering are prone to being genre shows. If we count Cult as genre, that’s still a thirty percent success rate with genre shows.

    So why not cancel BATB and take the shot that one of the new genre shows will do better? Just don’t stick it after TVD since The Originals almost certainly has a shot at being, if not a hit, a decent performer in that slot. Once The Originals gains a stable following, they can consider moving it to another night in a subsequent season to anchor new shows.

    TCD is from the “old” female 18-34 target demo. Dump it and replace it with a genre show.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    tscchope: “There’s no reason to suppose Beauty and the Beast would do worse in any other slot Mon-Thur.”

    Sure there is – lead-in. That’s Robert’s whole point – if BATB can’t hold much of TVD’s lead-in, the best lead-in available, then it’s likely its ratings would be no better and probably worse in another slot.

    Of course, no one can PROVE BATB would do worse in another slot (except Friday where it certainly would do worse), but no one can prove it would do better either.

    Again, the issue is what is it going to do in season two after the predictable season-to-season drop? It’s highly unlikely to overcome that drop by moving to another time slot next season. That is so purely speculative that I can’t see why the CW would take that risk rather replacing it with a new genre show.

  • Jessica

    Honestly I think the networks need to come up with a new ratings system and I am sick of hearing about lead-ins. I have met so many people and lived in 5 different states due to my husband’s job and we haven’t met a single Nielsen family at any of the locations. I know we have the largest cable package offered in our location which gets me over 200 channels and I can honestly say I have never in my life watched a program simply because of what came on before it especially with so many other options available. That even holds true for similar programs. For example I like NCIS but don’t really care for NCIS: LA. I never watch NCIS: LA live and if I ever do decide to watch it I watch it from onDemand.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BTW, I have accepted Bill’s comment over in the Bubble Watch thread that I’m wrong and Ultima is right, at least with regard to which numbers are more important, the 18-49 viewers total or the 18-49 rating number.

    I misinterpreted the mantra here that total viewers are not important by assuming the 18-49 numbers were being referenced, when that was not the case. My bad.

    Which means I no longer care about the difference between BATB and TCD since it’s possible both numbers are essentially the same (even if it’s not certain that is the case.)

    Both shows have too low numbers to be renewed given the likelihood of the season-to-season drop meaning that both shows will START their second season at too low a number for the studio to make money on them.

  • Jade

    Aside from Fridays,Mondays seem to be the next worse day for the CW. Obviously the network is deciding what to pair with HoD given that BATB and TCD were both tried out as companion series. Out of the two bubble series,BATB seems like the clear winner holding onto much of HoD audience even though BATB was a repeat. Last night TCD lead into HoD with much different results. Obviously there’s still a chance that both will get cancelled but on a troubled night like Monday,the CW should pair up HoD (steady fanbase)followed by BATB(passionate following)and atleast the night would be steady.

  • Kavyn

    I’m with Bill on this one. I find it a lot more likely that TCD will be cancelled before BATB, although I genuinely think they’ll both be cancelled.

    They don’t need a show to “save face” because they already have Arrow.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @RSH, I mostly agree with your counter statements.

    Yes, in order for CW not to turn into another “My Network TV/ION” channel, aka very few original programming, just “Flashpoint”, and mostly syndicated shows, CW needs to “go big or go home”. In fact, if Supernatural ends @ s10 & Arrow limps to syndication & nothing else does well, TVD will be in it’s 7th season with nothing else on the network worth anything.

    If they do that then yes cancel both & heck even consider canceling HOD as well. If it’s all about throwing things at the wall and hoping something sticks that they can keep for years to come, then as long as they have a pilot that makes any sort of sense, they should cancel a corresponding show.

    As far as you stating that they have a 25% or 50% success rate. That’s true for this year, the way you did your math. However, how about the past 4 years? All I see is TVD, Nikita, HOD & Arrow. TVD is the real success. Nikita will have 2 full years of struggling ratings, that a cheap reality show on Fri, may have made more profit. HOD will probably be similar. Arrow is only 1 season so it’s too soon to tell it’s future. Compared to how many new shows the past 4 years with only 1 show for sure going to last more than just for syndication purposes?

    What I think CW should actually do is pickup some of CBS’s left overs. They should have a COP/ Crime of the Week (COW) type night. Maybe Mondays so as not to counter Tues’s NCIS? They also should get a couple comedies.

    CW should think about trying this on for size.

    Mon
    8 Vegas / The Mentalist
    9 The Mentalist (if CBS wants to move on from it)/ NEW COW Drama

    Tue
    8 ROE
    8:30 Community
    9 NEW DRAMA
    Note since their isn’t any CW pilot comedy, getting NBC one and done if these 2 don’t become available is ok.

    Wed
    8 Arrow
    9 SPN

    Thu
    8 TVD
    9 Originals

    Fri
    8 Nikita
    9 HOD (Syndication plus run out of $) / Vegas if CW wants more NEW CW Pilots

    This would mean CW:

    1. Renews it’s top 3 shows (TVD/Arrow/SPN) plus it’s 1 or 2 closest to syndication (Nikita/HOD), for 5 returning hours.
    2. It gears towards COW type shows that are cousins to the direction CW is headed with 1 or 2 shows that have an audience just b/c of CBS are being pushed out.
    3. It adds a comedy hour in a nice time slot for comedy counter programming, which will also be a way to diversify, in a possible good way the CW audience. If ROE/Community don’t become available/too expensive. GWK/Whitney heck even Happy Endings is a good idea. Main idea is get viewers interested in Comedy on CW. 2014-2015 could be CW produced Comedy Pilots.
    4. At least 2 maybe 3 or 4 new fall dramas from the CW’s own pilots.
    5. No open hours. Even Friday won’t be completely dead. ANTM can remain in the summer.
    6. With established solid shows that are too low for their respective networks, plus still room for CW’s own pilots, combined with the type of programming those solid shows offer & a realistic idea of what the demo might be on CW, it give CW a much better outlook than doing the same old same old or only CW pilots.
    7. CBS owns 50% of CW so one would think they would like CW to stay in business. If that is the case, offering up shows that they can’t hold onto & having those shows air on hours that shouldn’t drive demo away from CBS, should be a no brainer.

  • June

    Jade, why do you say BatB held on to much of HOD’s audience? It got a 0.3 compared to 0.6.

  • Walter

    Here’s my schedule for next year:

    Monday: The Tomorrow People, Oxygen
    Tuesday: Company Town, The Selection
    Wednesday: Arrow, Supernatural
    Thursday: The Vampire Diaries, The Originals
    Friday: Hart of Dixie, Nikita

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures