CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Anna Bones Clarkwood: “However, how about the past 4 years?…Compared to how many new shows the past 4 years with only 1 show for sure going to last more than just for syndication purposes?”

    They can’t. But unless they try, they won’t. Also, I wouldn’t count the past four years much. Pedowitz didn’t replace Ostroff until 2011. That’s when the clean up started. I think Pedowitz will be significantly if not massively more aggressive than Ostroff at trying new shows rather than retaining old ones. He did give Gossip Girl a sendoff, but he didn’t do that for 90210.

    “What I think CW should actually do is pickup some of CBS’s left overs. They should have a COP/ Crime of the Week (COW) type night. Maybe Mondays so as not to counter Tues’s NCIS? They also should get a couple comedies.”

    Maybe. I’m not sure such shows will work. The spy genre definitely didn’t work for Nikita. Also, not sure they should be picking up other network’s leftovers as opposed to doing their own shows due to the perception that not only is the CW a low-rated network, it also gets tagged as a “leftover network.”

    OTOH, it wouldn’t hurt to have some leftovers available when their own pilot seasons don’t work out well. So it’s an option. Picking up cheap Canadian shows a la SyFy is also an option.

    “CW should think about trying this on for size.”

    I’ll leave that to you since I don’t play fantasy schedules, nor do I watch most of the shows you’re mentioning there. However, it does make sense to replace the CW low-rated “old demo” shows with something new, whether from another network or their own pilots if they really want to get some of that “old demo” flavor to retain their old viewers (which is presumably a concern to some degree at least.)

    Basically it comes down to whether they’re willing to trust their own ability to pick pilots or not. I don’t think we have enough seasons to determine whether they’re really bad at it under the new management. This season didn’t work out THAT well, but maybe they’re learning.

  • eselle28

    RSH: They really should pick up some cheap Canadian shows. It would give them something to fill in during years like this, when lots of shows aren’t working, and in better years they could be used as mid-season replacements or to plug in the holes left by shows that are cancelled and pulled from the schedule (instead of left to languish there like TCD and BatB are doing).

    I think they’d be wise to also build a couple of reality brands. There has to be an unstable C-list celebrity and a family with a bizarre lifestyle who haven’t been discovered by other networks. Sometimes shows like that end up striking a chord with viewers, and even a couple of mediocre performers would give them a lot more scheduling flexibility.

  • Dan W

    I still think that if it came down to renewing one of The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & the Beast, TCD would win. I don’t know why, but I just don’t think The CW is ready to get rid of this show. I think it is far more likely that both will be canceled, but I really wish they would try BATB on another night WITHOUT The Vampire Diaries lead in. That should give them an idea of how it will perform on its own. I definitely don’t think it would even be getting a 0.5 in the demo if it weren’t for TVD! I’m thinking more of a 0.3…or I could be completely wrong and it could go even higher in a different time slot. Would much rather The CW cancel BATB over TCD as I think TCD is a better show.

  • omabin

    I don’t think there is any advantage in renewing Beauty or Carrie at all. But I do agree with Bill on this one, I just don’t see carrie coming back. I don’t think beauty will, but it does have a small shot at coming back on fridays, which carrie doesn’t IMO. Either way, I would much rather have the cw saving the money it would spend there being used to promote new shows.

    Schedule:

    Monday
    The Tomorrow People
    The Hundred

    Tuesday
    The Selection
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita
    New Reality Show and then Repeats

  • Ray

    So Robert is an outboard motor. The internet is a cool place.

  • JulieDawn

    Well Bill,

    Seeing as TCD just got adjusted down to another .4, it appears your original thinking for this week is still intact.

  • Bizarro

    @Jessica
    I completely agree with you and sooner or later. More like next season or two. Also these networks will have no choice but to take streaming, DVR, and international pickup into consideration because Americans just don’t watch tv like they used too! Especially for the CW, everyone has their own taste’s and different slots come with different competition and obstacles. The CW has renewed shows on the bubble for this reason. Heck I remember they even said that they renewed 90210 one year or two because of DVR numbers. They renewed Nikita for international sales and syndication. They are now checking more closely on ondemand and streaming usage. Now when I think about it STREAMING should be a big factor in renewals for the CW. When I miss an episode of TVD and watch it on CWTV. There are like 3 mins worth of ads that you CAN’T skip EVERY few minutes. In the end it feels like I just watch TVD on tv BUT I have payed more attention to the ads, since I can’t turn the channel. So, I think the advertising companies should know this by now. When people are watching online unlike DVR, people are still looking at their ads. This time though, their is a better chance they will stick around to see them because on TV we can turn the channel, online we can’t.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Well Bill,

    Seeing as TCD just got adjusted down to another .4, it appears your original thinking for this week is still intact.”

    Karma.

  • halloween

    @Bizarro then CW should become a cable channel, affiliates will not like so many low rated shows just so cw reaps all the benefits from international sales/syndication.

  • Bizarro

    @Hallowen
    Just for the bubble shows during crisis times like these but the CW in a way is a cable network. They still call the local channels “The Big Four” for a reason. The CW is just their on its own lol!

  • SecretShame

    @Anna Bones Clarkwood

    I suspect that the big problem with the CW picking up CBS leftovers is that CBS shows are likely to have much bigger budgets. If they weren’t viable on CBS then it’s difficult to see how they could be viable on the CW, when you remember that they will almost certainly get lower ratings merely for being on the CW.

    It would have to be a show where there’s room to make significant budget savings and which, for some reason, CBS was willing to subsidise towards syndication on the CW but not air itself on a Friday or Saturday or during Summer. I think that such shows are few and far between.

    Buying in a Canadian show seems like an easier option. It would certainly be cheap. But the ratings would likely be very low, so really it’s only an option when the other choices are an unscripted hour or renewing an absolute ratings dog.

  • Tom

    Mr. Gorman

    Karma? Funny man. I’d love to have a recording of any phone call involving Pedowitz trying to foist off another season of Beauty and the Beast on Peter Liguori of Tribune Broadcasting.

  • SecretShame

    @Bill

    I agree with you that people are much too definitive about the production cost of shows relative to each other. And I also agree that, on any given network, scripted shows tend to be of at least comparable cost, with occasional exceptions. So we can reasonably safely say that most CW scripted shows are cheaper than most scripted CBS shows. But it’s hard to say whether, say BATB or the TCD costs more with any certainty and, in any case, the difference is probably not enormous.

    But I do think that we sometimes distinguish between shows on the same network. Take for instance The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie, as two CW shows from the same year. I don’t think that you needed access to the financial reports to be able to work out that HOD was a lot cheaper than TSC. Unless they are paying Rachel Bilson an obscene salary, which is hardly likely, there is pretty much nowhere where they could be spending money on HoD. While TSC had a lot of special effects, location shoots etc.

  • Davis

    Monday
    Company Town (new)
    Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    The 100 (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    NIKITA
    Beauty & The Beast

    OR (if they go with 3 new shows—based on where CW is repeating shows)

    Monday
    Company Town (new)
    Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    The 100 (new)
    Beauty & The Beast

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    NIKITA
    ANTM

  • Davis

    THOUGHTS?

  • James

    TITLE FOR NEXT WEEK:

    WILL THE BEAR OUTRUN THE BEAST??

  • Tom

    @ eselle28

    Picking up some cheap Canadian shows sounds right. I mentioned a while ago the the CW may have to schedule some independent productions to fill in the gaps when some of its new shows inevitably fail. But, watch what you ask for. The last Canadian indy that Pedowitz brought on board was the hideous LA Complex. IMO, that was the single worst scripted show of the early 21st century. However, if the Canadians hadn’t mercifully cancelled that atrocity, Pedowitz was apparently willing to continue scheduling it. That’s because the show was bringing in substantial amounts of digital revenue in comparison to what it was costing the network.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Awesome pic, dude!

  • JC

    I agree with Bill. If one of the two is renewed, it will be BatB, but I can easily see them both being cancelled. However, at this point I really can’t imagine any scenario where TCD gets renewed.

  • getmilk

    Speak for yourself Tom! The LA Complex was a great show. Too bad it couldn’t find an audience.

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