CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Bizarro

    @Davis
    I love the first one the most, I always thought that Company Town and HOD would fit in a way. Also, I love the fact that all of the shows I wanted are renewed!

  • Tom

    @ lactator

    The LA Complex received the lowest-ever ratings for a broadcast drama series premiere. Until this turkey, I’d never have believed that a network show could actually drop to a 0.1 demo. It has the addditional distinction of also completely bombing in Canada. The fact that it never found an audience is because viewers ran while they had the chance.

  • JulieDawn

    Everyone keeps talking about “picking up some cheap Canadian productions”…the thing is, there really aren’t that many TO pick up. Those that are half-decent are usually already picked up by another network (talking about the Flashpoints, the Continuums etc). There are a lot of other Canadian-made shows, but they are mostly already made in conjunction with, or for a US network/cable channel and wouldn’t be available for purchase (Haven, Warehouse 13, Being Human, the upcoming Orphan Black, and of course CWs own BATB, SPN and Nikita to name just a few).

    I suppose there’s Saving Hope which ABC/CBS/whoever (I can’t remember) already ditched last year.

    But seriously, other than on the CBC , the majority of Canadian prime-time broadcasting is simulcast with the US big 4 and CW. Or the cable stuff already belongs to the US in some way…so there’s not much to take!

  • SecretShame

    @JulieDawn Yes, that’s a key problem. It’s all very well to suggest bringing in shows created elsewhere, whether in Canada or from CBS’ reject’s drawer, but actually finding a viable import is a lot tougher. As noted above, The LA Complex was a disaster.

    It’s a pity that the UK uses an entirely different broadcasting set up with very short seasons and shows that wouldn’t fit an hour or half hour slot with US style advertising.

  • Tom

    I was thinking about programs like “Motive” which is a police procedural produced by Bell Media for CTV. It stars Kristin Lehman, a solid actress. It was the number one premiering show in Canada this season and will be aired by ABC this summer. I follow Canadian television out of morbid curiosity and there are usually a few solid but not necessarily great shows up there that never quite get greenlighted or make it to the states. (Which makes me wonder how the CW ever got stuck with the LA Complex).

    Regardless of what happens with Carrie and BB, the CW is predictably going to see a couple of new series fail and will ultimately have to replace its older shows. So, unless the joint venture ratchets up the budget or the CW goes heavily into airing reruns, they’re going to need to find some independent productions to plug the holes.

  • Dave

    CW Renewal Odds:

    Nikita: 99.9%
    Hart of Dixie: 75%
    Beauty and the Beast:50%
    The Carrie Diaries: 5%
    CULT: 0%

  • starship

    @Dave

    I’d say it’s more like

    Nikita 100%
    Hart of Dixie 90%
    Beauty and the Beast 40%
    The Carrie Diaries 0%
    Cult 0%

    The next couple of weeks will see a major change, one way or the other in BatB’s chances, the others are pretty much set in stone at this point.

  • Jonay

    Why can’t The CW renew The Carrie Diaries and just save it for midseason just in case a fall drama fails ???

  • Davis

    @ James

    “WILL THE BEAR OUTRUN THE BEAST?”

    hahaha That’s pretty good.

  • Nick

    @Tom

    Which makes me wonder how the CW ever got stuck with the LA Complex

    They probably thought it was a bargain. You have to remember, it was essentially a Canadian 90210 (call it British Columbia, 90210 maybe? ;-) ). They probably expected it to do much better than it did following 90210.

  • June

    Dave, I agree with some of those numbers but disagree about Nikita and Beauty.

    Just because a show has 3 seasons doesn’t mean it’s 99.9% guaranteed a fourth, especially with dismal ratings. Also, I think Hart’s chances are much higher than Beauty’s. In fact, I’d say Beauty and Carrie are pretty close.

  • Jasmine

    I’m actually happy about the news. I thought this show was going to be really good but it really tanked.

  • Jasmine

    I think the cw’s best move would be to replace their low ratings shows with reality tv. It seems like most of the cw’s audience is teens or young adults and that’s what MTV Vh1 and E! Have. I am a young adult and trust me no one watches the cw except for some people watched the vampire diaries and gossip girl. The CW’s best chance is to stop making mediocre dramas that no one watches and squeezing them dry. Sure EVERY network has a mediocre show thrown into the line up but come on. I mean sure rock of love and the bachelor are stupid but people watch It and if you want success you have to give people what they want.

  • Tom

    @ Nick

    I saw it as more of a Canadian version of Melrose Place. In 2009 – 10, the CW aired a sequel to the 90’s Melrose Place series that ran on Fox for seven seasons. The sequel wasn’t successful and was cancelled after only one season. Which makes me wonder even more what the CW’s brain trust was thinking by bringing in the LA Complex. Lately, the CW hasn’t exactly been a beacon of light when it comes to sound decision making. For example, while one CW production after another has been failing, the USA Network has built a solid lineup of shows that offer pretty good lite entertainment. So, unless CBS and the WB really step up their efforts, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the CW network folded in one or two more seasons.

  • JacobYates

    @Jonay

    You want to hold a ‘successful’ drama for midseason, not the piece if crap that is Carrie Diaries.

  • JacobYates

    Besides, the CW would lose just as much money if a fall drama fails and they replace it with Carrie Diaries than if they just kept the failure in the schedule.

  • JJA

    Certain Renewals: Nikita, Hart of Dixie

    Certain New Show: The Tomorrow People

    Everything else is up in the air.

  • Dave

    @June

    Given the fact that Carrie and Cult are dead at this point and 90210, Gossip Girl and Owens MD have been cancelled, I do see Nikita as 99.9% safe. Why? It’s only one season away from stripped syndication and is on Fridays. The CW has other days to worry about at this point besides Friday.

    The CW only has 3 shows renewed and with Nikita, that makes four.

    Hart of Dixie is likely so that makes five.

    The CW can’t cancel everything so that’s why I rank Nikita so high. I should’ve ranked Dixie the same as well but it’s still two seasons away and The CW could replace it with a reality show this Fall if they opt out on renewing it for 2 more syndication seasons. But I highly doubt that as I agree with the index that it’s likely to return.

    Beauty is a straight toss up for me. I really see it going either way at this point.

    My schedule would be:

    Mondays:
    8- Hart of Dixie
    9- New Drama (Blink or Company Town)

    Tuesdays:
    8- The Originals(N)
    9- Supernatural

    Wednesdays:
    8- Arrow
    9- The Tomorrow People(N)

    Thursdays:
    8- TVD
    9- Selection(N)

    Fridays:
    8- NIKITA
    9- Beauty( 13 episode Spackle, then gone and replaced by reruns or a reality show)

    Midseason:
    Oxygen

    The CW can’t launch more than one scripted drama midseason. This has been proven with the DOA premieres of both Cult and Carrie. They should launch 4 dramas in the Fall or 3 dramas with one reality show to try and build as much momentum as possible. Whichever flops the hardest, replace it with the solely excessively promoted midseason show they have waiting.

  • Danielle

    @ Jessica &
    @ Bizarro

    I agree with you both. Times have changed, the ratings system needs to change with it. People lead busy lives. There are MANY reasons why people can’t always watch live. Shift work, kids, sports, DVR’s and there are SO many options on TV!! I also do not believe in retention. Viewers watch what they want, when they want, not because it comes on after a show they are already watching. It’s that wonderful thing called a remote. Besides, BATB going up against shows like Grey’s and Glee, who both have WELL established viewers is going to be a hard sell. Plus, some people simply can’t afford satelite and only watch TV off the web. And, yes the ads they make you watch off the web should count! There is no way to fast forward them so I agree, they are more affective. And if need be then add a few more ads to increase profits. These factors really should be taken into consideration and I think the CW is begining to realise this. Why so many people think of CW as a big network is unknown to me. It’s far from it in my opinion. I think it’s a small fish in a big sea, trying to make a dent in the big 4’s ratings. Personally, I like that it strives to be different. (now, if it starts putting on that reality crap, I may have to reconcider my opinion. I would rather watch the inside of my eyelids than watch anything reality!) IMO, part of the CW’s problem is they only advertise on the CW. Well, if you never go outside of the box, you will never get the attention of viewers that are not aware of the programming you offer.

    I’m recently a BATB fan. So I have been talking about this show to my friends and family. None of them have heard of the show let alone the CW. But now they are all hooked on the show and some had to ADD the CW to their programing because it isn’t a standard channel here in Canada. My point being, a lot of people don’t get the CW or even know it exsists. Maybe their viewers would increase and be more comparable if it was as available as the big 4.

  • Justin

    Anyone else tired of talking about Carrie vs. BATB? Renewal and cancellation battles are more fun when they’re more programs to compete against. This year has become a little obvious with few surprises (i.e. 90210 ending, Cult DOA) and now it’s really down to just two competitors. Even though I like Carrie and gave BATB a chance (I’m sorry but I’m not a fan), I wouldn’t be surprised to see either go. Surprisingly the disagreement between the Cancellation Bear and Bubble Watch is more fun. :D

    If there MUST be some ideas, give BATB a half order (fits where the genre schedule is going). Spackle it on as a fall spot or give midseason. Also, I think the CW should order the back nine TCD episodes as a summer run only. Keep the girly teen (Dawn-era) shows as summer programs – it skews younger anyway and they might as well have some original scripted programming in the summer.

    Both are underperforming for CW standards and they essential are below with same demo. BATB ticks higher with viewers and TCD reaches near demo with less. I think the pilots (and how Mark Pedowitz is feeling that day) will determine what gets picked up or not. Chances are looking like both will be cancelled but we’ll see.

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