CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dan

    Won’t you aren’t taking into account is the .4 for TCD is all woman and all woman 18-34. The slightly better number for the more expensive often failed concept of BATB is a cross of men and woman and a cross of all ages up through 49 and beyond.

    Like Gossip girl TCD focuses demo is mana for advertisers.

    So the bear don’t have it right this time!

  • Win

    @Dan

    What are you rambling about????

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan is convinced TCD has a shot. He’s wrong.

    Justin: “Anyone else tired of talking about Carrie vs. BATB?”

    Yup. Me. Both are doomed in my opinion. If the CW renews BATB, they will be sorely disappointed in its season two and it will not get a syndication renewal for a season three. And TCD is as dead as they come, even for the CW.

  • tobes

    My fall CW schedule
    Monday
    8:00 The Selection
    9:00 Hart Of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Hundred
    9:00 Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Reruns or a cheap reality show.

    Midseason: Oxygen and Company Town

    Thoughts???

  • Jason50

    I’m thinking TCD and BATB both cancelled. HOD and Nikita renewed due to syndication potential. Arrow has proved that a new CW show can still consitently get around a 1.0 rating average and under Pedowitz it has been the only show to do so. I would think he’s trying to find more shows to hit that mark which would mean cancelling more shows, especially first year shows not even coming close to 1.0, and starting more new pilots. Not an easy thing to do but he was brought in to get CW back on track. They did have 5 new show premire this year so I expect no less than that amount. I thought this season had a weak lineup of shows and I was even unsure if Arrow would do well but I predicted that CW would clean house for this fall, which may happen.

    Next fall’s lineup of shows still look weak but much more interesting than this season and last. Hard to predict what pilots they will pick up but I thought they would’ve tried out Amazon. Not a fan of Wonder Woman but it looked like it had the ingrediants for a good series; superhero(like Arrow), teen/young adult female(typical CW),early years before the costume(Smallville), trained as a warrior(Buffy), living on an island of hot amazons(male viewers), and influenced heavily on Greek mythology(Xena).

  • Al

    My dream fall CW schedule
    Monday
    8:00 The Selection
    9:00 Blink

    Tuesday
    8:00 Hart Of Dixie
    9:00 Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 The Hundred

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals or The Tomorrow People

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 reality shows

  • evesix

    I really don’t get CW’s way of thinking!…
    Nikita is the second lowest rated show and is likely for renewal while BATB is the less worst rated unrenewed shows and they still hesitate to renew it! Nikita is having horrible ratings since day one, so, are they stupid enough to think it will be any better next year (while it won’t and will probably be worse than ever)? Or are they simply delusional?!…

  • Ade

    Monday
    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Tuesday
    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

    Mid-season:
    The 100
    The Selection

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Evesix: You misunderstand. Nikita is a lock for season four due to syndication reason. Shows that make it to season three after performing to even moderate ratings in seasons one and two get two more seasons to get 88 episodes in order to be syndicated. This doesn’t happen one hundred percent of the time, but definitely most of the time.

    At this point, Nikita’s ratings are irrelevant. BATB on the other hand is in its first season. Shows must pay their way with decent ratings in seasons one and two in order for the production studio to subsidize them with low fees to the network in seasons three and four.

  • itsthebest

    Beauty and the beat is a great show and is getting better with every episode. The potential for story lines is much higher than the TCD. Especially now if you are watching TVD it’s actually going downhill so I predict they need another show to take it’s spot. BATB with it’s chemistry can do that. Renew BATB!!!

  • Tom

    @ evesix

    The CW is owned by the CBS/WB joint venture. That’s the entity that produces the series that the CW broadcasts. The joint venture is continuing to produce Nikita because it – not the CW – will receive the revenue from syndicating Nikita (and probably Hart of Dixie) when that show accumulates about four seasons worth of episodes. From what I can determine, the joint venture was also behind keeping the disastrous LA Complex running on the CW because of the digital revenue it brought in.

    The CW’s target audience is thought to be women between ages 18 – 34. However, its three highest rated show are all aimed at a broader audience. With the exception of Arrow, the joint venture has utterly failed to provide the CW with a decently rated series this season. Since Carrie, Cult and EOMD are first year flops, it’s debatable if the joint venture will even break even on them. B&B seems to be selling in overseas markets, but I can’t tell if that will be sufficient to offset its declining domestic ratings.

    To get back to your question, I doubt if anyone can tell you what the joint venture/CW is thinking. If I had to guess, I’d say their business model is directed at at maximizing whatever profits they can get from the apparently restrictive budget they have to operate with. Since Nikita and HOD will likely each be around until they achieve syndication, I’d say ratings are less of a priority. This has apparently worked out to the extent that the joint venture received a windfall from selling their series to HULU and Netflix. It’s less of a bargain though if you’re a CW affiliate stuck with a primetime schedule full of low rated shows.

  • Rachel

    Just what the CW needs, more flop reality shows.

  • Holly

    @Rachel,

    Just what the CW needs, more flop reality shows.

    ????? That makes less sense than whining about reality shows on CBS (which is really, really silly)

  • Rosemarie De La Melena

    Both shows are fairly knew so its kinda hard to tell but personally I love Beauty and the Beast as it is one of my favorite shows :) it should definitely get a second season, its earned it.

  • Tom

    It looks like we’re in for yet another round of testimonials from the besotted female fans of B&B. That’s great for social media sites and fan blogs. From the perspective of this site, however, that’s also largely irrelevant. This is a ratings site. Currently, B&B’s ratings are lousy. That tends to contradict the too often repeated mantra that B&B is getting better with every episode. So, if you’re going to make sweeping generalizations about the show and its future, kindly come up with something to support that opinion. Skipping over B&B’s obvious lack of audience appeal just makes your comments look frivolous.

  • RS

    Still rooting for CD over Beauty and the Male Model. I don’t watch either one, but I want the one that I dislike the least to survive. But I’m sorry to say, I think Beauty and the Male Model will get a second season – on Friday where it will truly wither and die.

  • C.S.Strowbridge

    I think BatB will be canceled before TCD. The drop in ratings from TVD to BatB is greater than the average ratings for the network. That’s insane. Dead air would retain more viewers than that.

    TCD’s ratings are pathetic compared to other shows in its timeslot, but 0.79 is not always fatal for a show.

    Odds both are canceled = 50%
    Odds BatB is canceled but TCD lives on = 35%
    Odds TCD is canceled but BatB lives on = 15%

  • Danielle

    I read a very interesting article on this site about ratings, how Nielsen thinks it’s time to take into consideration social media, twitter and digital viewing for more accurate ratings. Gee, ya think? They are noticing this, and I think the CW and other networks are noticing this too! #BATB

  • Solelle

    Why cant fox and cw do n demand programing like abc nbc and cbs and well all the cable networks. I watch tons shows late at night cause I got stuff to do but cw and fox do not offer it and i dont like watching online i like the tv experience.

  • Tom

    What you’re talking about is measuring audience engagement as opposed to counting heads. This idea is rooted in a desire by advertisers to tailor ad placement by coming up with a clearer picture about the audiences for shows. The problem is that there’s often no correlation between audience engagement and audience size. In one study, the CW series One Tree Hill ranked 184th in ratings among adults 18-49, yet tied for sixth place in the audience engagement rankings.

    B&B is clearly failing to attract its intended 18-34 female target demo. Furthermore, from what I’ve seen, the bulk of social media activity for this show comes from adolescent girls. That’s not what advertisers are looking for, so I doubt if Twitter, et al. are going to save the show.

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