CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled, 'Beauty & The Beast' Still A "Toss Up"

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.40
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.92
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.50
Arrow renewed 1.64
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.96

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The Cancellation Bear and his partner in crime are almost always in the same boat with their predictions, so that even a small, possibly temporary disagreement is worth pointing out. We each think that the CW might cancel bothThe Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast. But if the CW cancels only one, the bear now thinks it will be The Carrie Diaries, while Robert currently thinks it would be Beauty & The Beast.

After four weeks of 0.4 adults 18-49 ratings, and correspondent drift in its ratings relative to other CW shows, The Carrie Diaries is now predicted as "likely to be canceled". In this case (which won't be tested if both shows get canceled), the bear's in a boat by himself.

Why not predict that Beauty & The Beast will be canceled too? At this point the reluctance is primarily about recent CW history. Since the CW began programming only 10 hours from Monday-Friday, they've never begun a new season with fewer than 6 hours of returning scripted shows (and 2010-11 began with 7). If they were to cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast they'd carry just 5 hours of returning shows into next Fall. That's enough of a change to give the bear pause. Beauty & The Beast ratings could still fall enough so that the bear becomes less reluctant. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Matt

    Something will need to replace Nikita on Fridays next season as Nikita will finally hit the 88 episodes mark. BatB is owned by CBS who own The CW so it will be renewed over TCD solely for syndication purposes. I am sure The CW will try to keep it off of Fridays for this next season but after that- I say it moves into Nikita’s old slot. Both BatB and TCD are huge losers in the ratings and I think BatB is the only one of the two that has a slight chance of being profitable later on. I like TCD so I am sad to see it go but I just don’t think it has a chance at this point.

    I also don’t see The CW cancelling both because with Emily Owens and Cult both dead- the network will need to save face by renewing at least one of their new shows.

  • Charmed

    Nikita might even get a 5th season if it can pull 0.4′s and occasional 0.5′s, what else would they have to put on Friday?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    C.S.Strowbridge: “TCD’s ratings are pathetic compared to other shows in its timeslot, but 0.79 is not always fatal for a show.”

    Where do you get a season average of .79 – counting Live + Seven? It’s Live+SD average is a pathetic .49. It’s utterly doomed. There may be little difference its .49 and BATB’s .64 but all that means is that BATB isn’t doing well either.

    Matt: BATB is in its first season. It will NEVER make syndication because it will drop significantly from its current poor ratings to even lower ratings in season two. It will likely drop below the minimum .5 at the end of season two that Nikita did. If it’s renewed for a season two and moved to Fridays in season three it will do MUCH worse than Nikita did in season two and thus never make it to that minimum .5.

    I keep re-iterating that a show must do at least decently in seasons one AND TWO in order to get a season three for syndication. BATB is NOT doing well in season ONE, let alone season two.

    Charmed: I don’t think Nikita will get a season five except for one reason only: if WB wants more episodes for syndication, like they did with Fringe. The CW can put HoD on Friday for its fourth season once Nikita is over, assuming HoD gets renewed for a third season for syndication reasons.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    “If it’s renewed for a season two and moved to Fridays in season three it will do MUCH worse than Nikita did in season two and thus never make it to that minimum .5.”

    Correction. If it’s renewed for a season two and moved to Fridays it will do much worse than Nikita did in season two and thus never make it to that minimum .5. In season three it will do somewhat worse than Nikita did in its season three.

  • Jennifer

    Isn’t it possible they renew both TCD and BATB for a 13-episode season? I read somewhere someone here saying they’d better kept 90210… Uh no, their ratings were bad; worse than when GG was in its fifth season. Plus, it hasn’t had so much impact as GG did in its first 2 seasons!
    I hope they renew TCD; what am I going to watch otherwise next year? If The CW doesn’t renew TCD they they could “give” it to ABC Family :)

  • Brandy

    @Jennifer, no its not possible they keep both.Last season CW cancelled/ended six shows and premired five new shows.This season, CW premiered five new shows and so far have cancelled/ended five shows:Cult,EOMD,90210,GG,LA Complex.Neither CD or BaTB are doing well enough to be renewed really but CW might have to renew BATB.This is not the same CW of three years ago that only cancelled three shows and premiered three new shows a season anymore.Also, rumor has it that MP has been instructed to clean house.
    @Matt, they dont have to renww one of CD or BATB “to save face”, Arrow ,SPN,VD are doing well and Arrow can be the only freshman renwal plus neither CD or BATB are doing well.MP has been told to clean house according to rumors.Also,last season CW cancelled/ended six shows and this season so far five.Its very likley that theyll cancel at least six again this season and put at least five to six of the 8_9 pilots on next season.They picked up a lot pilots too,though they usually only pick up half or so of them.They dont HAVE to renew,more than one freshman show,especially if all but one arent doing well.They have renewed only freshman show for the last three seasons.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    The big problem with BATB isn’t its current ratings. It’s what it would do in the second season.

    I keep saying that it’s obvious a show has to pay its way in seasons one and two to get seasons three and four. Studios can’t subsidize a show for three seasons, otherwise MOST shows would get four seasons and syndication. So they can’t offer the network a cheap price until season three, which means the network can’t afford to give a show a second season unless it’s doing reasonably well in its first season.

    BATB is barely hanging on in season one. It will do significantly worse in season two due to season to season drops. It makes no sense for the CW to go along with that and it makes no sense for the studio to go along with that.

    They’re not going to “speculate” that its ratings will rise in season two because very few shows do that. So they’re going to cancel it.

    The ONLY reason it might not get canceled is IF it’s really true that the CW can’t afford to cancel and replace that many shows. But they’ve done it before!

    TCD isn’t even worth discussing. There’s ZERO reason to renew it. None. Nada. Zip. Fergeddaboudit.

  • Hanna

    Mon:
    Oxegyn
    The Selection

    Tuesday:
    Beauty & The Beast
    Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    Arrow
    The Tomorrow People

    Thursday:
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday:
    Nikita
    Hart Of Dixie

    Midseason:Company Town

  • Charmed

    @RSH Why do you think TCD is done for but BATB has a chance? You do know there is only a 0.1 difference, don’t you? And that TCD retains more of its lead in, which is probably why HOD was picked over TSC last year.

  • david

    I think the Carrie Diaries will be canciled and i like Beauty and the Beast but i would not be surprised if they cancil because there pilots are really good. I can think of 4 pilots that sound good. The Tomorrow People, The Originals, The Selection because they want that one to work if they are trying it again. Oh and Oxygen or maybe the Hundred as possibilities. It looks like they are trying to cast some well known people for some of the rolls for the pilots too.

  • david

    Oh yah and or maybe Company Town as a possibility. I believe Mark over saw Lifetime when Army Wives started 5 years ago.

  • anon

    @Solelle What cable provider to you watch TV with? I’ve noticed that Comcast/Xfinity has been offering all the broadcast networks, including CW shows finally as part of their On Demand package this season. Also you can stream watch all of the CW’s shows from their official website cwtv.com, as well as hulu and so on, in the US anyway.

  • anon

    @Brandy As far as LA Complex goes, the CW isn’t bringing it back mainly because the Canadian network or production company that originally sponsored the show decided not to renew the show for a ’2nd’ or ’3rd’ season as the case may be, so there was no longer a show for the CW to broadcast.

    (Because apparently when the CW aired LA Complex last year, it was a ‘second run show’ with eps airing in the US a few months after they’d aired in Canada, much like how PBS airs ‘new seasons’ of Downton Abbey months after the BBC org aired them in the UK.)

  • The End

    @Jennifer
    @Isn’t it possible they renew both TCD and BATB for a 13-episode season?

    At the very most you’l be looking at a Beauty and the Beast renewal, likely for a full season.

    The CW will be thinking long term with this show, will it be beneficial for the network to keep the show alive? Will it hold its current numbers? This will be the kind of reasoning used.

  • Yoyo

    My Schedule for next Season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Tomorrow People
    9:00 – Beauty and the Beast

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie
    9:00 – Oxygen

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model

  • Yoyo

    I think Wednesday is good as it is. If what Bill said is right The CW needs six returning Dramas and three new dramas in the fall.
    Beauty and the Beast is not doing that bad (considering other CW’s Shows’ ratings) and Hart of Dixie is, for me, certain to be Renewed.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “@RSH Why do you think TCD is done for but BATB has a chance?”

    As I’ve said, the only reason BATB would have a chance is if the CW can’t cancel BOTH TCD and BATB. I think they can do so, and I think they will do so.

    “You do know there is only a 0.1 difference, don’t you?”

    Yes, Which means both shows suck and both should be canceled.

    “And that TCD retains more of its lead in”

    Irrelevant. The rating is too low for renewal.

    “which is probably why HOD was picked over TSC last year.”

    Both of which had higher ratings than TCD does. HoD season one had a .6 final season average which was barely adequate for renewal for a season one show. TSC was even higher, and probably was canceled either because it didn’t hold its lead-in and/or because of a downward trend in the spring. TCD is currently at LESS than .5 and is likely to go lower.

    I repeat, TCD’s rating is TOO LOW for renewal for a season one show. It can’t possibly pull significant numbers in a season two and thus can’t “pay its way” in season two in order to get to a syndication renewal for season three.

    BATB is in the same boat.

    AGAIN, shows MUST pay their way during seasons one and two in order for the studios to be able to subsidize them in seasons three and four.

    Neither one should be renewed.

  • starship

    @Richard

    Networks don’t just renew shows to get them to syndication, especially the CW. All their shows are in-house productions, made by either CBS or WB, who own the network, so if they want a show to stay on the air because they’re making money else where, the show will live. I know this is a ratings site, but when it comes to the CW it operates more like a cable network and that’s why the predictions based solely on ratings are never 100% accurate. The CW have their Hulu and Netflix deals + international syndication where more episodes = more money. A second season renewal doesn’t mean a show has any more chance at being kept for syndication and neither does a season three renewal indicate a show is bound to get a fourth. Heck, there are shows with more than 88 episodes which aren’t being syndicated, like the CW’s own 90210.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    starship: “Networks don’t just renew shows to get them to syndication, especially the CW.”

    God, are you off base there! The CW owners have explicitly said that the network produce profitable properties that they can syndicate.

    The reason why can be discerned from this quote from the Museum of Broadcast Communication:

    Historically, syndication, whether domestic or international, served to underwrite the risky process of producing for American network television. From the late 1960s through the mid-1990s special regulations (the Financial Interest and Syndication Rules) governed relations between television networks and independent production companies. Under these rules ownership of the rights to the programs reverted to the producer/production company after a specified number of network runs. Profits from any other sales, including syndication, generally benefited the production community. For this reason many production companies were willing to produce original programs at a loss, betting on the enormous income that might rise from successful syndication. Many “failed” programs could be created with the profits from one or two successfully syndicated shows.

    “All their shows are in-house productions, made by either CBS or WB, who own the network, so if they want a show to stay on the air because they’re making money else where, the show will live.”

    Nope. If a show isn’t making money on the ratings, it’s gone. No one has proven as far as I know that ANY given CW show has made enough money OUTSIDE of ad revenue to justify a renewal. Some shows may have been TIPPED OVER into profitability by international or other sales but there is no evidence I’m aware of that any show has been renewed strictly due to other sources than ad revenue from the local market.

    If you can cite some evidence for this, do so.

    Then there’s this article from the Hollywood Report:

    Uh Oh: America’s Fall TV Pilots are Flopping in Foreign Markets
    hxxp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/fall-tv-pilots-elementary-kevin-bacon-following-367898

    “that’s why the predictions based solely on ratings are never 100% accurate.”

    Other than Nikita, at which point we didn’t realize how important syndication is, I can’t think of any CW shows that were incorrectly predicted by the Renew/Cancel Index at least not last season.

    “A second season renewal doesn’t mean a show has any more chance at being kept for syndication”

    Of course not, the show has to make money in its second season to justify a subsidized third season – unless the studio has been giving that show away as a loss to begin with – and they only do that to GET to syndication.

    “and neither does a season three renewal indicate a show is bound to get a fourth.”

    History proves otherwise. As Robert or Bill said once, try to make a list – it will be a short one.

    “Heck, there are shows with more than 88 episodes which aren’t being syndicated, like the CW’s own 90210.”

    Just because a given show isn’t syndicated immediately 1) doesn’t prove it won’t be and 2) doesn’t mean other shows aren’t being subsidized for syndication.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    herpderp: “If CBS Studios sees the long-term syndication potential in BATB, then they’ll renew it. It’ll just be another Nikita situation.”

    Economics still rules. A show has to pay its way for seasons one and two to get seasons three and four – unless the show is being given away early by the studio precisely to get to syndication. But most studios don’t give their shows away – even the license fees they get from the networks only cover about 85% of production costs even for seasons one and two. Otherwise ALL shows would do four seasons and get to syndication because the network would be guaranteed profits on every show as long as it got ANY ad revenue.

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