Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Do No Harm* | canceled | 0.50 |
| Smash | canceled | 0.65 |
| Animal Practice* | canceled | 0.66 |
| The New Normal |  |
0.77 |
| 1600 Penn | |
0.78 |
| Guys With Kids* | |
0.81 |
| Whitney |  |
0.90 |
| Deception | |
0.90 |
| Go On | |
0.90 |
| Community | |
0.92 |
| 30 Rock* | final season complete | 0.93 |
| Grimm (F) |  |
1.01 |
| Parenthood* | |
1.08 |
| Parks & Recreation | |
1.14 |
| Law & Order: SVU | |
1.21 |
| Chicago Fire | |
1.43 |
| The Office | final season | 1.43 |
| Up All Night | |
pending |
| Revolution | |
pending |
-
The Cancellation Bear has been predicting that Grimm was certain to be renewed all season, why put it in the headline now? First, it hadn't been in the headline all season. Second, the headline question is one that often comes up in our comments. Third, the bear's still treading water on making any more definitive predictions on the three "toss up" sitcoms. (Community's dive back to a 1.1 rating last week got the bear to tread water even longer).
Back to the headline question. If a show is certain to be renewed, why should fans care when it airs? (other than personal scheduling like "I party on Fridays").
Typical responses to that question are along the lines of "It deserves better". What does that even mean? The best a TV show can hope for (from a fan's perspective) is renewal.
To pre-emptively answer those who'll howl that Smash has not been canceled, shows that are moved to Saturday in the middle of their run are canceled. To argue otherwise makes you look silly. Or worse.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
-
- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
Huh? Isn’t this OLD NEWS??? No fan I know of including me wants it switched at all. Stay on Friday. I don’t want anything more then to have it renewed.
@ Billiam; You and your wife don’t think things through too well. I know of almost no one who enjoys both Grimm and Once Upon a Time. But I know VERY MANY who watch Grimm and Walking Dead, and would likely chose Walking Dead over Grimm. I am really really glad you and your wife don’t work in television, and hope you really don’t have any job that involves strategy.
@Anthony:
1. Well, if you order 13 episodes, you pay for them unless you stop production at some point. It might be easier to get higher ratings with one show over another, but that doesn’t take away from the expense of ordering a show.
2/3. Whether or not people follow press releases for ratings is kind of irrelevant. People are aware of a show getting cancelled if it’s not on and it’s pretty simple to understand the concept of a show being on versus not being on. Thus, it’s not hard to get people to understand the concept of a show running for X number of episodes in the same time slot, week after week, if it is stated it will do so.
4. It’s kind of hard to say how this might work unless it’s tried, and those were just examples of shows that were liked by critics but that also had short runs. Just to be clear, were this to be tried, it would be tried with some very unique shows–and serialized ones at that, not self-contained shows. And perhaps the key is to measure consistency and devotion: if a show looks like it’s going to have a 1.5 or whatever moving forward, a network can know this and plan accordingly. Why is this important? Because it gives a network something to build off of. In other words, had Awake never gone below a 1.7, for instance, NBC might have given it another chance and it might have grown. (Key words here being “might have.”) Of course, it didn’t stop the bleeding; it went well below a 1.7. BUT perhaps it might have stabilized had enough people stuck around, which might have been helped along by people knowing it would last. No doubt more intense and/or creative promotion would help, but that’s always the case.
For all the talk that this is a dumb idea, I see a lot of insistence that that’s the case but no better suggestion. It’s not impossible for the networks to have successful shows, even if viewers are more scattered than before. They just need new ways to hook viewers in, and this might be one way to do it. It’s worth a shot, anyway.
@Matt
I don’t agree with putting smash as cancelled… I know it’s obvious it’s going to be cancelled but its not official yet…
Networks don’t put out press releases saying they’ve canceled a show. They may confirm it through interviews/press conferences or word coming from the studio. Normally, nothing is said and the show simply isn’t on the following season’s schedule.
Waiting for official cancellations is unnecessary. There is certain behavior by networks which is only done once a show has been canceled. Moving to Saturday is on that list.
@Brian J
Whether or not people follow press releases for ratings is kind of irrelevant. People are aware of a show getting cancelled if it’s not on and it’s pretty simple to understand the concept of a show being on versus not being on. Thus, it’s not hard to get people to understand the concept of a show running for X number of episodes in the same time slot, week after week, if it is stated it will do so.
I never said that viewers can’t tell a show has been cancelled or not once it has been removed from the schedule. That is obvious that they can. My contention is that the vast majority of American television viewers do not make their viewing decisions of shows based off whether they think that it will be cancelled or not, as most do not know the ratings of shows they watch to know whether a show is in any danger or not. That being the case, announcing in advance that a show won’t be cancelled for at least a certain number of episodes won’t be useful due to the fact that most people weren’t making their decision based off that, and the ones who are, will still see the terrible ratings and know it won’t be renewed (thus an increased likelihood of an unsatisfying ending because even if all 13 episodes that are produced air, it doesn’t mean they originally planned for the series to be cancelled afterwards).
And perhaps the key is to measure consistency and devotion: if a show looks like it’s going to have a 1.5 or whatever moving forward, a network can know this and plan accordingly. Why is this important? Because it gives a network something to build off of. In other words, had Awake never gone below a 1.7, for instance, NBC might have given it another chance and it might have grown. (Key words here being “might have.”) Of course, it didn’t stop the bleeding; it went well below a 1.7. BUT perhaps it might have stabilized had enough people stuck around, which might have been helped along by people knowing it would last. No doubt more intense and/or creative promotion would help, but that’s always the case.
Wait so you mean all Awake had to do was stabilize at a decent ratings level and it would have been renewed?? Shows that stabilize at decent levels get renewed, those that continue to fall get cancelled, that is how the business works. Once again you seem to be under the impression that people stopped watching Awake (or really insert any show in this scenario) because they weren’t sure that it was going to last. That isn’t why most people stop watching shows. They stop because the show stops being a appealing to them for one reason or another or they find a new show or some other activity that is more appealing.
By my count NBC will have six hours of scripted shows coming back in the fall, figure Sunday is set with the NFL, blow off Saturday and that leaves nine hours to plug. That’s a lot of new shows you have to promote.
The cut off point will be Go On. Eveyrthing below it will be canceled.
Monday
8-The Voice/Biggest Loser (5 weeks before Olympics then moves to Sunday)/The Voice Kids
9:30-New “MJF” Comedy
10-Revolution
Tuesday
8-The Voice/The Biggest Loser (5 weeks before Olympics then moves to Sunday)
9-New Drama
10-Parenthood
Wednesday
8-The Voice (September to 2nd week of October)/Betty White/The Voice (March to 1st week of April)/Betty White
9-New Drama
10-Chicago Fire
Thursday (air all New Comedies after after Olympics)
8-Community/New Comedy
8:30-Go On
9-Parks and Recreation/New Comedy
9:30-Whitney/New Comedy
10-SVU
Friday
8-Celebrity Apprentice
9-Grimm
10-New Drama “Dracula”
Saturday
8-Chicago Fire (R)
9-Revolution (R)
10-SVU (R)
11-Parks and Recreation (R)
11:30-SNL
Sunday (March)
7-Dateline NBC
8-The Biggest Loser
9-Ready For Love
Extra shows: 3 New Dramas, Rock Center, extra hours of Dateline,
Please give me your thoughts?
@DanOregon
I don’t know where you got to 9 hours of new shows to promote. Here is my breakdown of returning and new shows
Dramas:
Grimm, Parenthood, Revolution, SVU, Chicago Fire
Comedies:
Parks and Rec., Community, Go On, Whitney
Non scripted: (you forgot about these)
The Voice
By my count, that adds up to 10 hours of returning shows, needing only 5 hours of new shows, and even less if Rock Center returns as well.
@HAPPY!
Thursday will continue to be weak. NBC can increase chances of improvement by placing NEW high profile sitcoms there instead of Community and Whitney. The only NBC sitcoms worth saving are P&R and maybe Go On. But both low rated shows don’t need to be on Thursday. Time for NBC to make major changes on Thursday.
There is a new Law & Order for season 2013-2014, so could that be a start for a new NBC period?
@HAPPY
Where are you putting L&O?
Deception is so good I wish it was doing better!!!
@HAPPY
I just noticed. SVU on Thursday .
Grimm is wonderful. It needs to be renewed and every Grimmster post I’ve seen likes it on Friday. So, Thank Grimm It’s Friday needs to continue. Don’t move it!
Think Las Vegas. That kept a low profile on NBC and got five seasons. If Grimm moves next year it would be its last. It is not like Grimm started on Friday nights. It is at its potential.
What NBC should do:
MONDAY
8:00 – The Voice
10:00 – NEW DRAMA
TUESDAY
8:00 – The Voice
9:00 – Parenthood (15 episodes)
10:00 – Revolution (22 episodes)
WEDNESDAY
8:00 – Whitney (13 episodes)
8:30 – NEW COMEDY
9:00 – Chicago Fire (24 episodes)
10:00 – NEW DRAMA
THURSDAY
8:00 – Community (13 episodes)
8:30 – Go On (22 episodes)
9:00 – Parks & Recreation (24 episodes)
9:30 – NEW COMEDY
10:00 – Law & Order: SVU (24 episodes)
FRIDAY
8:00 – Dateline
9:00 – Grimm (22 episodes)
10:00 – Dracula (13 episodes) / Hannibal (13 episodes)
@NewGuy
I don’t think NBC should or would renew so many of their low rated sitcoms.
Whitney is doing awful on Wednesfay , not nearly potent enough to launch a new sitcom.
NBC will also continue to be in the sewer with Community and Go On leading off Thursday.
they should move grimm to wednesday and svu and chicago fire to friday
@Anomile:
Whitney being the most watched comedy isn’t saying much. Had the show been doing close to a 2.0 the entire season, it’d be a different story, but it’s not critically liked (even if it’s improved in that regard) and it’s really not doing that much better than the other comedies. At this point, it’s probably better for NBC to move on.