When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Last Man Standing & Malibu Country
I’ve upgraded Last Man Standing to likely renewal, and Malibu Country to the bubble. Last Man Standing has done well enough that it’s more likely to be renewed than canceled. The unknown is whether keeps the Friday comedy block around anchored by Last Man Standing, or uses it as schedule spackle for other nights. If ABC keeps the Friday block, Malibu Country is a tossup for renewal, if it doesn’t keep it, it’s likely to be canceled.
Beauty and the Beast & The Carrie Diaries
Bill and I remain in disagreement about which is on the bubble and which is likely to be canceled. A small uptick for Beauty and the Beast on Thursday didn’t sway me. With the women 18-34 that both shows presumably target, The Carrie Diaries still had the edge last week despite Beauty and the Beast having the fairly wide percentage lead with adults 18-49. Beauty and the Beast still has the much more favorable adults 18-49 lead in (last week a 1.3 vs. a 0.7 for The Carrie Diaries).
I don’t love the ratings for either show and if I wasn’t at least a little uncertain about how many shows CW can afford to cancel, I would probably have them both as likely cancellations. I may still by the end of the season.
How Could You Not Upgrade ‘The Good Wife’ to Likely Renewal After the Syndication Deal!?
Often shows are sold into syndication before they have enough episodes for stripped Monday-Friday syndication (as with Hawaii Five-0, NCIS: LA and Castle) with the buyers being on the hook for future seasons. Because it took The Good Wife so long to come up with a syndication deal, they already had four seasons (including the current season). In the case of The Good Wife Amazon and Hallmark are already on the hook for the current season, but it doesn't appear they're locked into any future seasons. Still, I can't see not upgrading the prediction to renewal by the end of the season.
CBS won’t have much time if it really wants to figure out if the streaming effect that seems to have benefit other serialized shows will help shows like The Good Wife. However, while I’m sure CBS would love some data about that, I’m not sure how much they’ll find out.
While much is made of the streaming effect for serialized shows, so far “streaming effect” is mostly synonymous with “Netflix Streaming Effect” (Sons of Anarchy, Breaking Bad, Mad Men, etc) , much is not made about the fact that we don’t really know much about Amazon Prime subscribers because Amazon doesn’t disclose that information. We don’t know how many there are. Estimates range from 5 million to 10 million subscribers to the $79/yr. service primarily known for its two-day shipping. How many of them besides me ever stream any of the “included in Prime” programming. Whatever the math, it works out to a number much smaller than Netflix which reported 27M streaming customers in the U.S. at the end of 2012.
How Could You Not Downgrade ‘The Neighbors’?!
To answer the question above: simple, I ignore the ratings for episodes that are sandwiched into otherwise all-repeat lineups.
To answer the follow-up question of “doesn’t it tell you something that ABC has sandwiched it into an lineups that are otherwise all repeats?” Nope, it doesn’t tell me that. Maybe ABC just wanted to protect it from the more daylight-y version of Daylight Saving Time. Or maybe they just wanted to shelter it from the inevitable “disappearing ratings” stories in late April. Mostly It tells me ABC has still more stuff it needed to sandwich in.
I’m not saying there aren’t reasonable cases to be made that it should be downgraded to the bubble, only that so far I am not swayed by those cases.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final Season Finished|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season Finished|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|Fringe||Fox||Final Season Finished|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Office, The||NBC||Final Season|
|Red Widow||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Golden Boy||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Up All Night||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The New Normal||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Middle, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Modern Family||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Renewed|