ABC: Does 'Nashville's' Ratings Decline Spell Cancellation?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.61
Red Widow :oops: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.89
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.97
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nashville predicted as "likely to be renewed" since mid-February, but the show's recent ratings declines have concerned some fans.

What do the numbers say?

Nashville new episode A18-49 ratings since Jan 1: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.6

No doubt about it, that's a decline.

But it's all relative.

ABC weekly scripted show new episode faux-average since Jan 1: 1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1 2.1, 2.1, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6

Also, a decline.

Nashville has averaged 96% of ABC's scripted average since January 1, and 92% Since March 1.

Nearly the same relative rating, and still within the "likely to be renewed" range. Fans can breathe easily. Anti-fans can gnash their teeth.

Note: My "faux" average weights each show the same, regardless of running length, other errors are always possible.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Al

    ABC not will cancels all new dramas from this season, Nashville will be renewed.

  • Tommy

    Hope abc renews BODY OF PROOF! everyone go like the save body of proof facebook page!

  • DKD

    Nashville’s C3 rating will keep it ahead.

  • S

    They will hopefully renew Nashville. I love that show!

  • Paulo PT

    How about to merge all 4 major network?

    Only a few shows have decent ratings, all together give a decent complete schedule! :P

    I hope next season have great new shows, or i believe it could be the end for broadcast television, because when they lose weekly for a cable channel they could not be called broadcast or major network!!!

  • Cle

    My concern is for Rv8… I cant understand why Nashville is at headline as Rv8 is below Nashville in average.. Maybe Rv8 is in the most competitive slot of Sunday 9pm and Nashville is a freshman.. Really hope Nashville, Rv8, Scandal & Castle get renewal..

  • Ryan Schwartz

    Has anyone considered the idea of ABC slotting NASHVILLE behind MALIBU COUNTRY next season? Certainly ABC would be happy with a 1-5-1.8 Fridays at 9. Both shows probably pull in a lot of country music lovers. SHARK TANK is doing well enough to use it on another night where the network is struggling.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Nashville will be renewed. No cause for alarm here at all + ABC has a lot more to worry about right about now than Nashville.

  • Brian

    As long as OUAT and Scandal have 5 smilies; I’m happy :)

  • forg

    I think Nashville will stay, yeah “save face” renewal but at least it has some critical support and who knows maybe it could get an Emmy nomination for Britton

    Wishing for the best for Neighbors

  • SJ

    @Cle

    Comparing the ratings for the last three episodes, Revenge is well ahead of Nashville. Also, it’s only 0.01 behind it on the Index, and I can guarantee you that when Nashville returns to a 1.4-1.5 rating tomorrow, Revenge will once again be ahead. It’s also only 0.2-0.3 ratings points behind Castle and Once Upon a Time. The only dramas doing significantly better are Grey’s and Scandal, and I’m pretty sure RVG is still ahead of Scandal and Castle (and, obviously, Nashville) season-to-date. So there’s no need to worry.

    I personally hope they put Revenge back on Wednesdays next season. They could have an hour-long MF lead into it to bring back some of the ratings magic. I’m sure it would do better than Nashville – and better than it’s doing on Sundays now. However, I see ABC keeping their Sunday schedule intact, aside, of course, from the 10pm show.

    ABC once again has a pretty unimpressive batch of pilots going into the fall season. Look for Body of Proof to hang around for another 13-episode run.

    Suburgatory and Neighbors are not faring that well. SUB will get to syndication one way or another, but ABC might want to cut their losses with The Neighbors. It could move to Fridays, but how low would it drop there? I hope they keep Malibu Country, it’s nothing special, but it’s a nice little show.

  • Mike, DDS

    @Bill is there any chance you could start posting the average ratings for each show on these lists too, or at least post the network mean (the rating that would be a 1.00 index)? Thanks

  • Cle

    @SJ

    Yes I truly hope Rv8 returns for third season. Bt there are rumers that ABC is giving Rv8 a 2hr special finale as to wrap up, as mostly long-running and highly hit shows get a 2hr finale. And if Rv8 gets a 3rd season it will surely bring a 4th too.

    And yes if Rv8 returns it would probably be on Sundays 9pm as i have a feeling ABC is ok with the ratings as Rv8 is in its 2nd season and cant suddenly reach to DH’s ratings and also becox of high competition in the slot…

    What say??

  • Supernatural fan

    I’m pretty sure Nashville will be renewed as it’s the only new drama on ABC, plus its the best new show of the season in my opinion

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Renew everything from Last Man Standing Up, cancel everything below it, it’s as simple as that. And move Happy Endings to TBS where it gets partnered with Cougar Town and goes on to have six seasons and a movie!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill is there any chance you could start posting the average ratings for each show on these lists too, or at least post the network mean (the rating that would be a 1.00 index)? Thanks”

    Nope.

    Used to post show averages. Nielsen didn’t like that. Some smaller sites under Nielsen’s radar can get away with it, we cannot.

    And the network averages I use are *wrong*. I count all episodes the same regardless of run length. It works fine for my prediction purposes (and has a certain internal logic to it), but I don’t want people seeing a number on the site that’s not a correct average and repeating it/relying on it elsewhere.

  • SJ

    @Cle

    Networks don’t give two-hour finales to shows they want to cancel.

    Revenge’s finale being two hours long means that they either:

    1) want the show to recover some in the ratings (which is likely the case if they promote it like crazy)

    or

    2) they don’t want Red Widow originals for three weeks during May sweeps.

    I’m guessing ABC is OK with Revenge’s ratings, otherwise they wouldn’t be shortening the promos to 20 seconds, like they did with Grey’s Anatomy and Castle.

    On the other hand, ABC is actively promoting a recap of Once Upon a Time. That’s the show ABC should be concerned about as it dropped almost 50% of its audience since September. Of course it’s in no danger, but the drop has to have ABC a little concerned.

  • Cle

    @ SJ

    OUAT is an expensive show and ABC might be concerned morof it than Rv8 as it is dipping too..

    Hope Rv8 gets a season 3… and 4,5,6 and on…

    Next episode of Rv8 will surely see a drop.. bt after that it will rise..

  • frodo

    @Cle

    Revenge is not going anywhere people, ABC have much bigger problems than Revenge, its still stable enough vs the biggest competition on TV.

  • RG-X

    Next year’s TV series; S.H.I.E.L.D. can shake things up for ABC – if they do it right!

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