ABC: Does 'Nashville's' Ratings Decline Spell Cancellation?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


spelling_bee_champion_teddy_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.61
Red Widow :oops: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.89
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.97
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10

-
The Cancellation Bear has had Nashville predicted as "likely to be renewed" since mid-February, but the show's recent ratings declines have concerned some fans.

What do the numbers say?

Nashville new episode A18-49 ratings since Jan 1: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.6

No doubt about it, that's a decline.

But it's all relative.

ABC weekly scripted show new episode faux-average since Jan 1: 1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1 2.1, 2.1, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6

Also, a decline.

Nashville has averaged 96% of ABC's scripted average since January 1, and 92% Since March 1.

Nearly the same relative rating, and still within the "likely to be renewed" range. Fans can breathe easily. Anti-fans can gnash their teeth.

Note: My "faux" average weights each show the same, regardless of running length, other errors are always possible.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bee

    Meliwa,

    the “stunt casting” is just the show being real. it’s not stunt casting like glee and smash have done. they’re quick, unpromoted cameos from celebrities working today in nashville and/or country music. the upcoming katie one is the most well-known one to date, but it fits the story.

  • Marsinvestigations1@gmail.com

    SJ tell that to Veronica Mars. 2 hr series finale on CW. Canceled.

  • David Howell

    Nashville probably has further to drop – partly because the ancillary revenue from music sales isn’t worthless. Not a huge deal, I guess, but might be worth something if it ends up in toss up territory.

    Sitcom scheduling next season will be very interesting. ABC have a whole heap of decisions to make there, and with a late late midseason show getting the MF leadin in sweeps, I think that might add to the discussion too!

  • Mark

    Sunday next fall:

    8pm – Once Upon A Time
    9pm – SHIELD
    10pm – Revenge

  • bob

    Last year every Scandal fan was bashing Revenge about all the promotion it received. This year Scandal is getting all the promotion and I don’t see any bashing at all. I love both shows but Revenge definitely gets the shaft. Now ABC is having it air on Easter??? I NEVER saw a show treated so poorly EVER in the history of television…..ok maybe Rules of Engagement on CBS but otherwise never.

  • heba

    @bookworm
    just because abc shortened the promo for revenge it doesnt mean that abc lost faith in it abc knows its ratings dropped due to horrible scheduling and their doing a 2 hour finale for it because red widow did a 2 hour premiere in its timeslot. so abc is basically combining the last 2 episodes of revenge in the season finale it doesnt mean that its going anywhere. btw i still think that revenge is a waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat better show than scandal that show is garbage i cant understand all of the hype.

  • Deo

    As long as Castle gets renewed, I´m good:)

  • SJ

    @Marsinvestigations

    Way to find an ancient example to try and undercut my point. Are we really comparing a fifth-place “netlet” which, at the time, was still experiencing growing pains, to a major network like ABC?

  • Michael

    What i predict will be ABC Schedule for the 2013/14 season.. Im 90% sure this is how it will look like… the main thing im unsure about is the Greys anatomy and Reckless timeslots (And they may hold Nashville for midseason

    LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK

    ABC Schedule:

    SUNDAY:
    8:00 – Once Upon A Time
    9:00 – Big Thunder (NEW)
    10:00 – Revenge

    MONDAY:
    8:00 – Dancing With The Stars
    9:00 – Dancing With The Stars
    10:00 – Castle

    TUESDAY:
    8:00 – Dancing With The Stars
    9:00 – The Neighbors
    9:30 – Trophy Wife (NEW) Comedy
    10:00 – Nashville

    WENDSDAY:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Spy (NEW) Comedy
    10:00 – S.H.I.E.L.D (NEW)

    THURSDAY:
    8:00 – Greys Anatomy
    9:00 – Reckless (NEW)
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Untitled John Leguizama (NEW) Comedy
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    MIDSEASON:

    Bad Management (NEW) Comedy
    Super Fun Night (NEW) Comedy
    Happy Endings (Final Season)
    Gothica (NEW)
    Killer Women (NEW)
    Lucky 7 (NEW)
    Influence (NEW)

  • Goku

    So I guess Nashville is the new Smash. It will sink next season and will be canceled.

  • Devin

    @Michael, 90% sure? How so confident?

    This is what they should do.

    SUNDAY:
    8:00 – The Bachelor(Fall)/Dancing with The Stars(Spring)
    10:00 – Nashville

    MONDAY:
    8:00 – Monday Night Football-(Fall)(local affiliates already air it)
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time-(Spring) (no interruptions)
    9:00 – The Bachelorette -Spring

    TUESDAY:
    8:00 – Last Man Standing/Malibu Country (Fall)
    Dancing With The Stars Results-(Spring)
    9:00 – SHIELD(NEW)
    10:00 – Castle

    WEDNESDAY:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Keep Calm and Karey One (NEW)
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – How to Live With Your Parents or How the Hell am I Normal (NEW)
    10:00 – Revenge

    THURSDAY:
    8:00 – Body of Proof
    9:00 – Greys Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Bad Management/The Neighbors
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – Doubt (NEW)

    SATURDAY:
    8:00-College Football (FALL)
    -20/20 (SPRING)

    MIDSEASON:

    Gothica (NEW)
    The Returned (NEW)
    Influence (NEW)
    Spy (NEW)
    Super Fun Night (NEW)

  • Gene

    I still think Nashville has a lot more potential for growth than a lot of other freshman shows.

  • Jeremy

    Am I the only one that thinks ‘The Bible’ has taken a good chunk of Once Upon a Time’s viewership. Granted ABC has screwed the show over with it’s programming lately but it has normally recovered, but this time is different and the Bible seems to have amazing ratings. It’s just a thought, but I think Once will stay in the low 2.0′s until ‘The Bible’ ends.

  • Moon

    My 2013-2014 ABC Schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Castle (24 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    9:00 – Killer Women (13-22 episodes)
    10:00 – The Returned (13-22 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle (24 episodes)
    8:30 – Bad Management (13-22 episodes)
    9:00 – Modern Family (24 episodes)
    9:30 – Suburgatory (22 episodes)
    10:00 – S.H.I.E.L.D. (13-22 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Murder in Manhattan (13 episodes) / Body of Proof (13 episodes)
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy (Final Season, 24 episodes)
    10:00 – Scandal (24 episodes)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing (22 episodes)
    8:30 – Malibu Country (13 episodes) / Happy Endings (13 episodes)
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time (24 episodes)
    9:00 – Revenge (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Nashville (22 episodes)

  • Moon

    Mid-season:

    The Neighbors
    How the Hell I Am Normal
    Lucky 7

  • heba

    when revenge comes back next season will kick scandals butt. i find it ironic that all of the revenge haters are scandal fans

  • Tommy M.

    @ Moon,

    Grey’s Anatomy is ABC’s number 2 scripted show, and their highest rated drama. Why on earth would next season be the final season? Shonda Rhimes is quoted as not having any plans to end it, and ABC isn’t going to cancel it with the ratings it gets.

  • SteveO

    ABC Fall 2013

    Sunday
    7pm AFHV
    8pm Once upon a time
    9pm Revenge
    10pm Nashville

    Monday
    8pm Dancing with the Stars
    10pm Castle

    Tuesday
    8pm Shark Tank
    9pm Shield
    10pm Lucky 7 or Big Thunder

    Wednesday
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm HTLWYPFTROYL or New Comedy
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm Bad Manaagement or New comedy
    10pm Influence

    Thursday
    8pm Body of Proof/Wife Swap
    9pm Greys Anatomy
    10pm Scandal

    Friday
    8pm Last Man Standing
    8:30pm Malibu Country
    9pm Suburgatory
    9:30pm The Neighbors or Happy Endings
    10pm 20/20

    PS I would like if Revenge would be moved back to Wednesday, but I don’t see ABC doing that! Let me know what you think!

  • SteveO

    The Bachelor could also replace Dancing in the fall!

  • Dan

    If SHIELD gets picked up, I can see Thursday at 8 being the slot. I doubt ABC wil stick it at 10 on Wed or Sun since they try to use Thurs 8 to launch shows that would be more “Thriller” or high profile like FlashForward, Charlie’s Angels, Last Resort and Zero Hour.

    @DEO – Castle will get renewed, this season ABC didnt have any hit shows so the consistent and stable Castle will return.

    @Goku – Nashville & Smash are different because Smash was a midseason series that returned midseason and unfortunately had a terrible lead in and by that time viewers have lost interest. Nashville will likely return in the fall and my guess is that ABC will air it Sundays at 10 and they will probably air a new drama Wed at 10. Nashville really isnt doing horribly for its slot.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures