ABC: Does 'Nashville's' Ratings Decline Spell Cancellation?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.61
Red Widow :oops: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.89
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.97
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nashville predicted as "likely to be renewed" since mid-February, but the show's recent ratings declines have concerned some fans.

What do the numbers say?

Nashville new episode A18-49 ratings since Jan 1: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.6

No doubt about it, that's a decline.

But it's all relative.

ABC weekly scripted show new episode faux-average since Jan 1: 1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1 2.1, 2.1, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6

Also, a decline.

Nashville has averaged 96% of ABC's scripted average since January 1, and 92% Since March 1.

Nearly the same relative rating, and still within the "likely to be renewed" range. Fans can breathe easily. Anti-fans can gnash their teeth.

Note: My "faux" average weights each show the same, regardless of running length, other errors are always possible.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Devin

    @Ultima,

    That’s true. But since Disney owns both, I bet they could do it. Even if it ran on both stations, they demo rating would be high on both and would score higher than anything else they put there. They would not need to renegotiate Super Bowl and playoff rights until 2021. Remember, NBC didn’t have football for a long time and got it back. ABC is in a better position than NBC was at the time. Football is king and I would think ABC would want it back where it belongs.

  • rob60990

    “What the hell is RV8? How does Revenge even turn into RV8?”

    If you watch the show or heck see promos for it, you will see the g in Revenge turns into an infinity symbol.

  • Ted Craig

    @Cle

    Of course they will. Fantasy line-ups are just that.

  • diane

    Nashville is like those take-out leftovers containers in your fridge that should be thrown away but never get tossed till they smell really bad ABC just doesn’ t want to develope another scripted program. ABC honchos are happy with their current program numbers. Nashville is at the tail end of the evening line-up where it can[t do much damage because motst folks are just waiting around for their local late night news.

  • Sara Hempstead

    I hope body of proof gets cancelled I hate her attitude and all the glory seens I love vegas

  • coonio

    I love it, that Castle is climbing and climbing

  • carol

    I just don’t get it…I really like Body of Proof…yeah I think Danna Delany plays a “B” but I like it for the biology; yeah you can call me a geek, but they actually do a decent job at keeping things accurate. I also like the guy who plays her new liaison with the police; I have liked him since I first saw him on the first couple episodes of Fringe (way back when).

  • Ultima

    @Devin
    That’s true. But since Disney owns both, I bet they could do it.

    They could, but they won’t.

    Disney makes more money with Monday Night Football on ESPN than it did with it on ABC. Why would they want to make less money?

  • Ultima

    @Devin
    Remember, NBC didn’t have football for a long time and got it back.

    They were only without the NFL for 8 years. Also, the current version of Sunday Night Football is much more valuable than Monday Night Football (due to flex scheduling ensuring quality late season matchups, while MNF is stuck with whatever is scheduled months in advance).

    Even if it ran on both stations, they demo rating would be high on both and would score higher than anything else they put there.

    That’s ridiculous. If it were on ABC, there would be no need for it to be on ESPN at all. That would also undercut Disney’s ability to charge huge carriage fees for ESPN.

    There’s absolutely no way that Monday Night Football will move from ESPN back to ABC in the near future, if ever.

  • C

    Nashville..yes! Revenge..yes!

  • Cj morton

    I would really like to have seen what would have happened if they had switched Malibu Country and The Neighbours. I think the Neighbours may have done worse than MC on a Friday. Regardless, I’m really hoping LMS and MS get renewed!

  • Cle

    Why doesn’t ABC release their shows renewal before the official date…
    I am telling this becox I say CBS’s news on this site telling they are renewing some of there shows for next season…
    Bt for ABC we havn’t got any clue till..
    maybe they want to go through all the ratings of the shows and then decide what to bring and what to cancel…

  • Justin121

    Methinks ABC is gonna pull a Lost with REVENGE.

    i.e., a renewal + an announcment.

    Not an ending announcment, though. Just something that will hopefully get the fans to stick with the show and get some older fans as well.

    Nashville, Body of Proof, Castle, Scandal, Once, Grey’s, are all safe. ABC can’t be too picky with dramas.

    Same with comedies; Neighbors, Suburgatory, Last Man, Malibu, are all safe.

  • Justin121

    ABC didn’t care about killing Desperate Housewives’ momentum because they had a strong schedule Monday-Firday.

    Now, DWTS is collapsing and taking Monday and Tuesday down with it. Mod Fam and Grey’s are dropping like crazy and taking Wednesday and Thursday down with them, as well.

    That’s Karma, ABC. Housewives was the most consistent show on the schedule last season. Just when they announced it was ending :D

    (for reference:

    Season 4: 7.7 to 6.1)
    Season 5: 5.8 to
    Season 6: 4.8 to 3.9
    Season 7: 4.2 to 2.7).

  • Justin121

    Season 6 went to a 3.3.

    From a 4.8.

  • David Howell

    In what world is ABC Thursday being taken down by Grey’s when it’s destroying Fox’s former darling, roughly tying with a show that CBS rearranged its dominant sitcom block to protect, just beat American Idol for the first time since its double digit demo days, oh and its leadout is the #2 (and soon to be #1) show at 10pm on any network on any night and beats chunks out of a hyped freshman show that got the SB leadout slot?

    It’s not. Thursday 9-11 on ABC is the best two-hour drama block on any network save for the NCIS pair on Tuesdays.

    The comedies aren’t doing well, but the drama slate is more fairly described as a mixed bag, and Batchelor is doing a heck of a job offsetting the DWTS decline. Plus, even a weakened DWTS is nursing a super cheap drama into territory where it legitimately warrants a renewal. I’d still rather be in ABC’s position than that of Fox, let alone NBC. They just need a couple of good new procedurals, some better scheduling, and one more solid top-of-the-hour sitcom (how Suburgatory hasn’t done better with the MF leadin, I have no idea).

  • Cle

    @Justin 121

    I dont get what u said??

    Methinks ABC is gonna pull a Lost with REVENGE.

    i.e., a renewal + an announcment.

  • omabin

    I have been saying for a long time that for me, Nashville is still a bubble show, although at times it was indeed more likely to be renewed.

    This week’s preliminary 1.5 puts it at 77% of your faux average (1.9) so far (considering Castle, Body of Proof, Middle, Neighbours, MF, Suburgatory and Nashville itself). Grey’s and Scandal will likely move the average eve higher tomorrow, and so should OUAT and Revenge on a normal Sunday. Heck, even the friday sitcoms are able to pull a 1.5 on a very good day. Red Widow will bring it down, but that is about it at this point. One week doesn’t mean anything, but if the trend continues, Nashville will not be renewed.

  • Cle

    fantasy schedules are fantasy…

    Probably ABC might move Body of Proof, Last Man Standing, Revenge, Scandal & Castle to strenthen other week slots and to increase ratings…

  • Cle

    Sorry ‘Week’ correction .. ‘Weak’

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