ABC: Does 'Nashville's' Ratings Decline Spell Cancellation?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.61
Red Widow :oops: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.74
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.89
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.97
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10

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The Cancellation Bear has had Nashville predicted as "likely to be renewed" since mid-February, but the show's recent ratings declines have concerned some fans.

What do the numbers say?

Nashville new episode A18-49 ratings since Jan 1: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.6

No doubt about it, that's a decline.

But it's all relative.

ABC weekly scripted show new episode faux-average since Jan 1: 1.7, 2.1, 2.0, 2.2, 1.8, 2.1 2.1, 2.1, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6

Also, a decline.

Nashville has averaged 96% of ABC's scripted average since January 1, and 92% Since March 1.

Nearly the same relative rating, and still within the "likely to be renewed" range. Fans can breathe easily. Anti-fans can gnash their teeth.

Note: My "faux" average weights each show the same, regardless of running length, other errors are always possible.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • omabin

    I agree about moving Revenge out of Sundays (even though it will not happen I think), but only if it is for good. It is already hard to survive one move, what to say of two. It can and should be moved this year, but ABC has to be damn sure its new spot is the right one, it needs stability from then on, no more moves. Procedurals can withstand moves like that, serialized shows like Revenge cannot.

  • Ultima

    Sunday
    7-AFHV
    8-DWTS/The Bachelor/DWTS
    10-Betrayal (NEW)/Gothica (NEW)

    Monday
    8-DWTS: Results/Shark Tank/DWTS: Results
    9-SHIELD (NEW)
    10-Castle

    Tuesday
    8-Once Upon a Time
    9-Big Thunder (NEW)/Lucky 7 (NEW)
    10-Scandal

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-Suburgatory/Pulling (NEW)
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-Trophy Wife (NEW)
    10-Nashville (13 episodes to see if it grows, if it doesn’t, then Body Of Proof for 13 episodes in the winter/spring)

    Thursday
    8-Grey’s Anatomy
    9-Reckless (NEW)
    10-Revenge

    Friday
    8-Last Man Standing
    8:30-The Neighbors
    9-Malibu Country
    9:30-Bad Management (NEW)/Suburgatory
    10-20/20

    Saturday
    8-The Taste/Splash
    9-Shark Tank/Celebrity Wife Swap/Shark Tank
    10-ENCORE PROGRAMMING

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    I agree in essence. However:
    – I think Body of Proof is a much better fit Sundays post DWTS then a new show. Sundays are a tricky place for dramas more and more with cable and awards and all that, so a known procedure is IMO the best choice to go there. Especially one that will be renewed for long term syndication purposes and one that can actually benefit a lot from DWTS lead-in.
    – I don’t think Shield fits thematically with the results show at all. I don’t want them paired up as one is very female skewing and the other is supposed to have a way broader appeal. It would fit like a glove tuesdays with OUAT and Big Thunder.
    – Shark Tank does way too well (and is likely one of ABC’s most profitable shows) do be held to midseason just like that. I think ABC is better off keeping it on Fridays than launching a 2 hour block – ratings are bound to be lower, I don’t see the point.
    – If you really want to move Scandal out of Thursays, which I don’t, I think Mondays at 9 is more suitable. Why move it just to put it in another 10pm slot? Especially considering it would bleed from the less compatible lead-in. I love both Scandal and Revenge, but I think next year they will be equally strong, I am not sure it is worth moving one for the other.
    – They are better off saving all those reality shows you have on friday for midseason filler. They will not program on saturdays.
    – The Bachelor is doing way too well to be thrown to the awards season wolves, it deserves better.

    But I agree with the general idea of moving DWTS to Sundays and getting the serialized shows out of there. That should be the main thing about ABC’s schedule next year. They can leave everything else where it is right now for stability sake as long as they do that. I would do like this:

    Sunday
    DWTS/Splash/DWTS
    DWTS/The Taste/DWTS
    Body of Proof

    Monday
    DWTS Results/The Bachelor/ DWTS Results
    Revenge/ The Bachelor/ DWTS Results
    Castle

    Tuesday
    Once Upon a Time
    Shield
    Big Thunder

    Leave everything else as it is if they must (with only a new comedy after MF and a new drama Thursdays at 8). In an ideal world, I would move Grey’s and Scandal both an hour back so that Scandal can launch a new show, but for stability purposes, maybe it is better to leave it alone.

  • Devin

    @ultima

    I’m not saying they would run MNF on both, but they could and score a high demo on both. When MNF moved to ESPN from ABC they did not base ad rates on demos. I think if they want to compete for number 1 again, it would be in their best interest to move it back. That is all. You make it sound like a crazy idea and its very conceivable they could move it back one day. Owning both networks makes it a lot easier.

  • JacobYates

    @Ultima
    Where’s your picture Ultima? You’re not an impostor are you? It doesn’t seem like you’d be posting a schedule as I recall ‘you’ saying that you don’t post schedules, plus you’ve never posted a schedule before.

  • Judy912

    I will be in seventh heaven if ABC renews ‘Castle’ and keeps it right where it is, Mondays at 10 PM. As far as I am concerned, ‘Castle’ is the best program on TV.

  • Bunny

    I love Body of Proof except for the snotty Dr. DeLaney I think.Prancing around of 5 inch heels makes for a dumb looking Dr.I have always loved Mark Valley and a good team mate would make all the difference.

  • Anne

    Such a long break bewteen the Nashville shows – I wasn’t thrilled about last night’s episode; boring. It lost momentum. Too much time in between makes one lose interest.

  • HAPPY!

    @JacobYates

    Oh ya… It must be an Ultima imposter.

  • HAPPY!

    My schedule 2012-2014

    Sunday
    7:00-AFHV
    8:00-DWTS/The Taste/DWTS
    9:00-DTWS/Splash/DWTS
    10:00-Body of Proof (12 eps. in fall)/Celebrity Wife Swap/Body of Proof (8 eps. in spring)

    Monday
    8:00-DWTS: Results/The Bachelor/DWTS: Results
    9:0-Revenge/The Bachelor/DWTS: Results
    10:00-Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00-Once Upon a Time
    9:00-S.H.I.E.L.D (NEW)
    10:00-Betrayal (NEW)

    Wednesday
    8:00-The Middle
    8:30-/Bad Management (NEW)/Trophy Wife (NEW)
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-Pulling (NEW)
    10:00-Nashville (12 eps)/Gothica (NEW)

    Thursday
    8:00-Grey’s Anatomy
    9:00-Reckless (NEW)
    10:00-Scandal

    Friday
    8:00-Last Man Standing (20 episodes)/Malibu Country (17 episodes)
    8:30-The Neighbors (13 episodes)/Suburgatory (24 episodes)
    9:00-Shark Tank
    10:00-20/20

    Thoughts?

  • Fred

    @HAPPY!

    Well done .

  • Fred

    BIG THUNDER sounds like it could be fun. Hope ABC can find a suitable slot for this family action show.

  • HAPPY!

    @Fred
    Thanks.

  • Ultima

    Where’s your picture Ultima? You’re not an impostor are you?

    That is indeed a fake Ultima; the lack of an avatar makes it easy to tell! ;)

  • Jon

    I predict

    Body of Proof, Nashville, Malibu Country, Happy Endings, and Red Widow will all have a meeting with the Bear

  • Cle

    ABC wont cancel their all new shows…. Nashville will return… atleast in midseason.

  • Dan S

    I’m fairly certain Nashville will be back. There’s a good chance it’ll be held for midseason but I strongly believe it should air after DWTS. Both shows should move to Sun however & Castle stays put on Mon after DWTS results show. Revenge can either move to Tues or back to Wed. As for The Neighbors it & Suburgatory should both move to Fri even if they have to timeshare.

  • Wayne

    Seriously, people, “Rv8″?? “RVG”??? Is it SOOOO hard to spell out “Revenge”?????

  • Cle

    Its just an abbreviation…

  • HAPPY!

    Thoughts on my schedule above?

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