CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Is The Only CW Show Still A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear+time+will+come+just_6f8e5f_3903049

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.38
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.76
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.91
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.49
Arrow renewed 1.61
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.94

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Beauty & The Beast ratings ticked up a tenth last week. Better than the alternative, but not enough to have the Cancellation Bear change his prediction.

As noted last week, the biggest thing the show has going for a second season is simply the fact that were Beauty & The Beast canceled, along with Cult and The Carrie Diaries as currently predicted, the CW would only have 5 hours of "veteran" scripted shows for next Fall, and they've never begun a 10 hour Fall schedule with fewer than 6. In this case, the trend is Beauty & The Beast's friend.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Lividlady

    If B&TB gets cancelled i’ll really be livid especially when such stupid shows like Carrie Diaries, Ameica’s Next Top Model and some of the other crap that’s on gets renewed. What a joke if the powers that be can’t tell the difference between shows that have substance and those that just take up air time. Arrow is no better than B&TB and that got renewed so what’s the problem with B&TB. The episodes have been fantastic and make sense not like so many of the other shows that got renewe such as TVD, which has really been all over the place this past season. So please renew B&TB, it’s too good to fall through the cracks.

  • Tom

    “If B&TB holds up to a .6, I believe it will get renewed because the CW did give the show a back 9 when it fell to a .7…’

    That’s a reasonable assumption. But consider that the 0.7/184Mm for episode 5 came after two consecutive 0.6 ratings. This may have led the network to (incorrectly as it turned out) conclude that the show had bottomed out and/or that it was exhibiting some growth potential. Or, maybe that was just enough to keep the timeslot open until the network had time to develop “The Originals” or something better. Who knows?

    It’s difficult to determine the fate of the Beast without knowing if the CW et al. are pursuing a long or short term business strategy. A short term strategy would mean that they’re all about wringing as much cash as possible from each show with the minimum possible investment. In that case, a 0.6 would keep the Beast in business because ratings are second to profit and the Beast seems to be making them money. However, that strategy would act to the detriment of the CW affiliates. A long term strategy would require the network to create a schedule around a nucleus of highly rated shows. That’s expensive because it would require cancelling lower rated shows to make space for potentially higher rated ones. The CW isn’t cancelling Nikita or HOD, so space on the schedule is limited. Worse, TVD and SPN are aging and will soon need to be be replaced. Even worse, Arrow’s ratings seem to unexpectedly be be dropping. So, I don’t see how the Beast would survive as part of a long term strategy to overhaul of the CW’s schedule unless it returned to the aforementioned 0.7 rating. Even then, the show would have to be moved from its current spot behind TVD meaning that it’s ratings are more likely to decline. So, although I’m hardly objective, I doubt if the Beast has much of a future so far as ratings are concerned even if it survives.

  • Brandy

    @LividLady, networks dont cancel or renew based on quality.Its based on ratings and if the show makes enough money to justify renewing it.Arrow,VD,SPN werent given early renwals of quality or substance but because they are cws three highest rated shows and are making enough money to jusify the renewals..IF BATB makes enough money in international sales,ad revune,itunes,hulu,ect to juditfy renewal itll be back.If not, it wont.Though Pedowitz did say he didnt feelSC had potential to grow creativley but BATB does.Just because you dont like CD or ANTM dosent mean they are crao shows either, thats your opinion which youre entitled to but plenty of others like them.Top Model is cws only sucsessful reality show and until cycle 18 or so was one of cws highest rated shows.How bout not bashing other shows to make BATB look better ok?

  • HV

    My Revised Schedule: What do you think?

    MONDAY
    8:00 Beauty and the Beast
    9:00 (NEW) The Hundred

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Heart of Dixie
    9:00 (NEW) The Tomorow People

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 (NEW) The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Nitka
    9:00 (NEW) The Selection

  • Annie Orhan

    @Gus

    I’m guessing you don’t seem to remember Nikita is on Friday or maybe you do and just don’t care…….

  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    Here’s what Pedowitz actually said in January:

    “We’re very pleased in terms of where it’s going creatively,” Pedowitz says of “Beauty and the Beast.” While he compares the show’s ratings to numbers for “The Secret Circle,” he says that the show has potential for growth and he thinks it has a future.

    The first sentence is window dressing. The second sentence means the Beast is circling the drain just like TSC did. I don’t remember him opining about TSC not being able to grow creatively. What’s your source for that?

    BTW, Pedowitz may yet be your guy if he decides to indulge his inner Philistine. Seems that he was working with the producers of the hideous LA Complex to keep that atrocity going without its Canadian broadcaster. That’s because the show was earning him significant digital income. This guy is clearly no patron of the arts, so I’d consider sending him a quiche with a note reminding him that the Beast is a hit on other continents.

  • davie

    I wouldn’t be surprised if CW canceled all shows except what’s already renewed and Nikita.

    I know HOD is a steady performer, but is the potential syndication value worth the cost of 44 more episodes?

    B&TB really should probably be canceled. If it’s not, will it just be for a 2nd season? Or would they hope it will gain an audience over the summer on Netflix? How will this show last 5 seasons?/100 Eps? (4 and 88?)

    I know Weds has proven to be a great night for the CW but they’ve gotta be at least thinking about moving SPN to either MON or TUES at 9, to try and create another established night for themselves, that or move Arrow, since they could both hold an audience (for theCW)

  • Brandy

    @Tom he’s aid”I don’t feel SC has potential to grow creativelyand there weren’t enough hot guys to keep the female audience interested and that didn’t like the show and the only cw shows he likes are SPN,Vzd,Nikita and now Arrow.

  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    Found the quote. Thanks. But (there’s always a “but”),Pedowitz didn’t say “he didn’t feel SC had potential to grow creatively but BATB does.” He said that B&B “has more growth potential in it, in terms of its creativity and because we’re centered around that love story.” The phrase “more growth potential” is not synonymous with saying TSC had no growth potential. The entire quote is set out below. IMO, what Pedowitz said is typical Hollywood spin. The Beast isn’t growing and neither did TSC. It’s obvious he wants to hype the show, but I doubt if anyone outside of the CW really knows what he’s thinking. As I said previously, he lost credibility with me over the LA Complex.

    Q&A

    What makes you feel optimistic that it will go on, even though it’s tracking the same way as a show [i.e. TSC] that you canceled?

    PEDOWITZ: The answer to that question is that I believe the show has more growth potential in it, in terms of its creativity and because we’re centered around that love story.

  • BPKK

    Pedowitz also said the following at the winter TCA as reported by Collider:

    How do you feel about Beauty and the Beast, and what is the likelihood of that coming back for a second season?

    PEDOWITZ: We’re very pleased, in terms of where it’s going creatively. It’s basically on par with The Secret Circle, with total viewers. We believe the show has a very long run in front of it. We’ve made no announcements about a second season, but based on the passion of the fans, both at E! Online and the People’s Choice Awards, we think we have something in this epic love story between Cat and Vincent.

    How are you feeling about how Nikita has been performing?

    PEDOWITZ: When we moved it to 8 o’clock, it actually started to perform better than it was at its 9 o’clock time period. It’s performing on par with our expectation. I’m a fan of the show.

    What do you think about the creative direction of Hart of Dixie?

    PEDOWITZ: It’s one of our fun shows. It stands out, on a very tough Tuesday night. It has a very strong DVR presence and VOD, as well as online. I’m very pleased with the creative direction that it’s gone in.

  • Tom

    @ BPKK

    I saw that too. The problem is that he hedges by saying “It’s [B&B] basically on par with The Secret Circle, with total viewers.”

    If you’ve spent any time on this site, you’ll know that total viewers doesn’t mean nearly as much as the 18-49 demo. The only thing I can use total viewers for is to sometimes gauge when a show is about to gain or lose a demo point. So, Pedowitz neatly used total viewers to sidestep the fact that demos for TSC were substantially better than B&B’s through the first 17 episodes. In other words, Pedowitz has got the Hollywood spin down pat.

    I’m past being interested in the merits of B&B as a program. What principally interests me is how many (if any) low rated shows Pedowitz plans to keep. The CW took a real beating this season and seemingly can’t catch a break. Surprisingly, even Arrow is down. I didn’t see that one coming. So, Pedowitz needs some hits fast. The only way to do that is to open up as many new time slots on the schedule as possible. That’s not going to be easy if the schedule still has three or four low demo shows on it.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bizarro: “If B&TB holds up to a .6, I believe it will get renewed because the CW did give the show a back 9 when it fell to a .7″

    I consider that they might actually do that. I think it would be a mistake, based on the likely drop the show will get season to season, but they might do it.

    “they could of just put Cult after TVD instead in January.”

    I think even the CW knew Cult was going to be a disaster compared to BATB. They may not have known how BAD a disaster, but I think they knew it was weak, which is why it was a mid-season show.

    “they choose to keep airing B&TB reruns instead of other CW shows.”

    Doubtful that reruns really attract new viewers three-quarters of the way through a season but I suppose it could mean they’re at least trying to boost the show’s ratings.

    “The CW wants B&TB to succeed badly.”

    More precisely, they want at least ONE MORE show to succeed badly so they don’t have to cancel all four new shows and replace them.

    “hows on average cost $2 million to make per episode. If this is the case for B&TB, then they are getting $1.5 million back”

    However, that is for international sales at the upfront last May. If international RATINGS do as poorly as they do here, it’s likely the international buyers won’t pay the same rate next season.

    “[Netflix] would be paying $500,000 an ep probably cheaper since this is The CW.”

    I assume you were referring to Netflix? The rates there are $150-700,000 an episode depending on how WELL the show does and how long running it is (on Netflix, I assume, or maybe on the original network.) I don’t know if BATB is even being streamed there yet, I think new shows wait a bit before Netflix picks them up. So Netflix license fees may not be helping yet.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Tom: Currently Arrow has a 1.09 season average. I think it will end up with a 1.0, or even a .9 – equal to or one-tenth of a point higher than Nikita did in its season one.

    The question then will be how does it hold up in season two: does it drop to Nikita’s rather poor .5 season average for season two, or does it hold, say, north of .7? I think if it holds a .6 or higher in season two, MAYBE even a .5, it will get seasons three and four for syndication like Nikita did.

    It’s gotten a .9 before and gone back up to 1.0, but there’s been a steady drop in viewers, so we’ll have to see if the last four episodes can claw its way back up to maintain a 1.0 or higher this season. I hope so.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BPKK: I interpret Pedowitz as follows:

    On BATB:

    “PEDOWITZ: We’re very pleased, in terms of where it’s going creatively.”

    Means: Absolutely nothing. :-)

    “It’s basically on par with The Secret Circle, with total viewers.”

    Means: “It’s way worse than TSC, which is why I’m talking about total viewers rather than demo. OTOH, The Originals will fix that part of Thursday night, so our real problem is where to put it next season if we have to renew it.”

    “We believe the show has a very long run in front of it. We’ve made no announcements about a second season”

    Means: “I’m BSing about a long run but it’s possible we’ll renew it if we don’t have anything to replace it with. If we do, we’re probably screwed.”

    “but based on the passion of the fans, both at E! Online and the People’s Choice Awards, we think we have something in this epic love story between Cat and Vincent.”

    Means: “We’re praying the female fan buzz can convince the Nielsen Families to watch, otherwise we’re screwed for a fourth new show this season…”

    On Nikita:

    “PEDOWITZ: When we moved it to 8 o’clock, it actually started to perform better than it was at its 9 o’clock time period.”

    Means: “We screwed up, then we fixed it.”

    “It’s performing on par with our expectation.”

    Means: “It’s doing what it’s supposed to do on Friday – survive. We can’t expect anything better and it’s irrelevant anyway because it’s going to be syndicated.”

    “I’m a fan of the show.”

    Means: “We couldn’t care less – the studio is running the show on that one. We have bigger problems than Fridays.”

    On Hart of Dixie:

    “PEDOWITZ: It’s one of our fun shows.”

    Means: Absolutely nothing. :-)

    “It stands out, on a very tough Tuesday night.”

    Means: “The rest of our new shows suck rocks except Arrow. HoD is the only stable show on Mondays and Tuesdays. We may have to keep it for syndication reasons but it looks bad.”

    “It has a very strong DVR presence and VOD, as well as online.”

    Means: “Maybe if we renew it and move it to Fridays for syndication, it will stay stable like Nikita did. Or maybe we can leave it where it is and let it hold down at least one slot in our disaster week nights.”

    “I’m very pleased with the creative direction that it’s gone in.”

    Means: Absolutely nothing. Or perhaps: “Well, it’s stable so they didn’t do anything stupid this season.” :-)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Tom: “reminding him that the Beast is a hit on other continents.”

    Is it? The fact that it sold for $1.5 million an episode says nothing about actual ratings. I’d like to know if it is.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bizarro: “I assume you were referring to Netflix?”

    Sorry, I just realized you were talking about the license fee. The license fee the CW pays to the studio can be anything up to usually 85% of the cost of the show. The rest is made back by the studio in international sales and other syndication (hopefully.)

    In this case, BATB appears to have done well in international SALES (if not necessarily RATINGS) for season one. It’s too soon to see if WBTV can get the same rate for the show in season two.

    The show could well be profitable for the CW even with poor ratings and poor ad revenue. We can’t know for sure but it’s quite possible. The question remains how will it do in season two? Low ratings in season one with a likely drop in season two are likely to impact the profitability in season two. Unless the show pays its way in season two SOMEHOW, it’s not likely to get a season three and four for syndication.

  • Brandy

    @hedherp, where you read that?I googled it and looked at several entertainment sites but didn’t see that.

  • Norma

    @Brandy

    Herpderp got it all wrong they are just showing a marathon of them. That station shows every CW show

  • Norma

    Sorry @ hedherp lol

  • Jared

    Nikita,Hart of Dixie and Beauty & the Beast will be the last 3 series to get a renewal from the CW along with Arrow,TVD and Supernatural. The network will launch 4 new series in the Fall and have 2 series waiting for midseason.

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