When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Another Network Will Have to Save Happy Endings
Happy Ending's fate on ABC has been sealed for a while. I'm not basing that on one Friday's worth of preliminary ratings (and it was Good Friday to boot) but rather that ABC had already shipped it off to Friday. At that point I wasn't sure ABC would take the show even if Sony offered it to them for $0.00, and that doesn't seem likely. Consider that ABC owned the similarly ratings-challenged Cougar Town and still shipped it off to TBS. ABC doesn't own Happy Endings, so its pretty clear they're done with it.
Will another network pick it up? I don't know. I never like those odds, but nor can they be ruled out. While Sony isn't likely to give the show away for nothing, there is a history to suggest it is sometimes willing to do deep discounts. With regard to syndication proximity, Happy Endings is in a worse position than Cougar Town was last year, but not dramatically worse (Happy Endings will end the current season with 57 episodes, Cougar Town had 61 after its last season on ABC.)
CBS Renews Pretty Much Everything Except Criminal Minds and Two and a Half Men
CBS announced the renewal of several shows including The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Notably absent from the announcement were Criminal Minds and Two and Half Men which we predict (and are still predicting) will be renewed. Though I have removed the "likely" and "certain" distinctions in the table below, both shows are still certain renewals. Chalk it up to contract negotiations in the case of Criminal Minds and both contract negotiations and licensing negotiations in the case of Two and a Half Men.
The Carrie Diaries Downgraded to Likely Cancellation; "Beauty and the Beast" Still a Likely Cancellation
I've downgraded The Carrie Diaries to likely cancellation so now have both it and Beauty and the Beast as likely cancellations. I still favor "Carrie" ever so slightly but that's only because if CW renews Beauty and the Beast it will land somewhere else on the schedule than Thursday at 9pm and its ratings can be expected to fall.
I don't expect any announcement for either show until the upfronts in May. The above predictions could still change several times between now and then!
Nashville & Body of Proof
Yes, I noticed that Body of Proof is recently out-rating Nashville. For now, that alone doesn't sway me to change the predictions for either. But that could change very soon. Besides, the "bubble" section in the table below is looking pretty sparse now.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final Season Finished|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season Finished|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|Fringe||Fox||Final Season Finished|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Office, The||NBC||Final Season|
|Red Widow||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Golden Boy||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Up All Night||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The New Normal||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Middle, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Modern Family||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Renewed|