Bubble Watch: A Sad Fate for "Happy Endings?" + CBS + More 'Beauty and the Beast' vs. 'Carrie Diaries' + "Nashville'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 31st, 2013

Bubble-Bunny-1

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Another Network Will Have to Save Happy Endings

Happy Ending's fate on ABC has been sealed for a while. I'm not basing that on one Friday's worth of preliminary ratings (and it was Good Friday to boot) but rather that ABC had already shipped it off to Friday.  At that point I wasn't sure ABC would take the show even if Sony offered it to them for $0.00, and that doesn't seem likely. Consider that ABC owned the similarly ratings-challenged Cougar Town and still shipped it off to TBS. ABC doesn't own Happy Endings, so its pretty clear they're done with it.

Will another network pick it up? I don't know. I never like those odds, but nor can they be ruled out. While Sony isn't likely to give the show away for nothing, there is a history to suggest it is sometimes willing to do deep discounts. With regard to syndication proximity, Happy Endings is in a worse position than Cougar Town was last year, but not dramatically worse (Happy Endings will end the current season with 57 episodes, Cougar Town had 61 after its last season on ABC.)

CBS Renews Pretty Much Everything Except Criminal Minds and Two and a Half Men

CBS announced the renewal of several shows including The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Notably absent from the announcement were Criminal Minds and Two and Half Men which we predict (and are still predicting) will be renewed. Though I have removed the "likely" and "certain" distinctions in the table below, both shows are still certain renewals. Chalk it up to contract negotiations in the case of Criminal Minds and both contract negotiations and licensing negotiations in the case of Two and a Half Men.

The Carrie Diaries Downgraded to Likely Cancellation; "Beauty And The Beast" Still a Likely Cancellation

I've downgraded The Carrie Diaries to likely cancellation so now have both it and Beauty And The Beast as likely cancellations. I still favor "Carrie" ever so slightly but that's only because if CW renews Beauty And The Beast it will land somewhere else on the schedule than Thursday at 9pm and its ratings can be expected to fall.

I don't expect any announcement for either show until the upfronts in May. The above predictions could still change several times between now and then!

Nashville & Body Of Proof

Yes,  I noticed that Body Of Proof is recently out-rating Nashville.  For now, that alone doesn't sway me to change the predictions for either. But that could change very soon. Besides, the "bubble" section in the table below is looking pretty sparse now.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty And The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cult CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com

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  • oktimeforplanc

    I would love it if TBS would take Happy Endings like how they bought cougar town.

  • Reyna

    Robert,

    Other sources are contradicting your predictions. Here is one example. Given you are no longer accepting hypertext links in comments, the article is entitled is “Broadcast TV Buzz: ‘Beauty And The Beast’ Looking Good For Renewal, ‘Happy Endings’ Inches Closer To Cancellation & More”.

  • Ricardo

    Actually… ABC owns Happy Endings. It’s a co-production with Sony.

  • Rave Mystery

    NBC needs to keep Whitney, Go On, Parks and Recs, and Community. I think are better keeping these shows because the comedies for next season might not fair so well so they should keep these for the fall or mid season.

  • DW

    TGW six seasons and a movie. :)

    now im on to ABC programming. that’s an odd network im wondering if they dont move revenge down an hour to 10 and bring in SHIELD for 9 pm even though it will be up against football and TWD in the fall. or movie castle to sunday and put SHIELD in there for 10 they could slot it on tuesday at 10 also.

  • Rave Mystery

    If NBC cancels these shows a cable network like TBS or Comedy Central would be a choice to pick the show up.

  • Brian

    I do not think NBC will cancel The New Normal. The show is way better than people say, it is touching, funny, smart. Second NBC very much likes the show. Last, the ratings fell after the Voice left, but improved upon its return as NBC expected. Expect a renewal.

  • Don

    WHy would another network pick up Happy Endings if the ratings on ABC are so bad?

  • brad

    Brian,

    How does NBC “like the show”?

  • Brandy

    Reyna, other sources agree with Robert.One site has Nikita,BATB as could go either way while another has HoD as not looking good but Nikita,BATB as looking good while another sone says HoD is sure to be be renwed but BATB ,CD have small chance to be renewed but are more likley to be cancelled.Yet another site has Nikita,CD as tossups, HoD a likley renwal,BATB “hopeful” back in Jan.

  • brad

    Of course TNN improved it ratings after the Voice returned. DUH. But the show can’t always air after The voice forever and ever. It’s a dead show. Hopefully NBC does not give it a pity renewal.

  • Anthony

    Robert,

    Other sources are contradicting your predictions. Here is one example. Given you are no longer accepting hypertext links in comments, the article is entitled is “Broadcast TV Buzz: ‘Beauty And The Beast’ Looking Good For Renewal, ‘Happy Endings’ Inches Closer To Cancellation & More”.

    Just because other people disagree doesn’t mean they are right. I’m not saying Robert will be right in the end either, but that’s the whole point of predictions. No one knows for sure what will happen, they just make their best guess based off the information available to them.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    1. Your current 5 Bubble Shows are def Bubbles. Way to much for & against them, esp behind the scenes/ number-crunchers.

    2. I’m glad that you are thinking of moving both Body of Proof & Nashville to the Bubble. I agree, it’s too early to trust that the recent trend is for real.

    I don’t know your thoughts but I think both could be renewed or cancelled or one of both. There is enough room on the schedule for all scenario’s to occur.

    3. And, that’s it. I looked @ all your Renewal & Cancellation Predictions & I don’t see anything I’d think about moving. I think there is enough Comedy room on the schedule to keep The Neighbors & Suburgatory.

    4. Well, ok, there is still this CW mess of B&TB & TCD. Right now you’ve decided both are gone, which means 5 NEW hours. I think that’s a bit more behind the scenes info than I’d like to predict. I’d chicken out & go with Bubble for both even though, if I were CW, I’d be begging the ppl in control of the purse strings to cancel both & focus on our pilots & maybe even picking up a show or 2 from other Network…I’d particularly like to start a Tues @ 8 Comedy Hour but I’d settle for a Monday Crime Block.

    5. BTW, I forgot to thank you last week but, thank you for putting Renewed on the bottom. The flow makes a lot of sense again.

  • Dahne

    Awesome picture this week. In the TCD vs BatB fight, I predict BatB with a slight edge over TCD, which I don’t think even the CW will pick up again. However, I think if at all possible, the CW will cancel them both. In fact, they probably should.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Brian
    “Second NBC very much likes the show (The New Normal).”

    What does that even mean? They bring it flowers on Friday nights? They take it out to eat on Saturday nights? They sit in front of a fire and sip chardonnay with it.

    Networks like their TV shows until they stop liking them. Plain and simple. You would be hard pressed to find any evidence to the contrary that is not merely wishful thinking on your part.

  • Reyna

    I have seen those as well Brandy. However, I am not just referring to The CW. Yet, concerning The CW, recent sources are confirming that HOD and Nikita will be seeing a renewal, while BATB is closer to receiving a renewal, whereas TCD and Cult are both up for cancellation. The point is, are these Robert’s personal predictions, or is he considering all sources?

  • K

    Good Wife is really good. It’s a joy to watch especially when Eli and Michael J Fox’s character is on.

  • brad

    Reyna,

    What are the other “sources”? Is it that stupid ausholio?

  • Darkridedan

    I hate to ask a silly question, but it does seem to be an elephant in the room. Why is Smash listed as cancelled? I realize it will be moved to Saturdays and that it’s a poorly ran show, but I haven’t found anything anywhere stating it has been cancelled, save for that article here on NBC shows.

    Thanks!

  • Carmen

    I have a feeling that the poster Brian may be right. I think that NBC will do everything up to and including moving a mountain to find an excuse to renew The New Normal.
    Does it deserve a renewal? Lord no.

    But I think that for political reasons NBC will renew it.

    It may come down to how well the Voice continues to perform. If the Voice continues strong they (the NBC number crunchers) may decide that they can absorb the very low rating

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