Bubble Watch: A Sad Fate for "Happy Endings?" + CBS + More 'Beauty and the Beast' vs. 'Carrie Diaries' + "Nashville'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 31st, 2013

Bubble-Bunny-1

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Another Network Will Have to Save Happy Endings

Happy Ending's fate on ABC has been sealed for a while. I'm not basing that on one Friday's worth of preliminary ratings (and it was Good Friday to boot) but rather that ABC had already shipped it off to Friday.  At that point I wasn't sure ABC would take the show even if Sony offered it to them for $0.00, and that doesn't seem likely. Consider that ABC owned the similarly ratings-challenged Cougar Town and still shipped it off to TBS. ABC doesn't own Happy Endings, so its pretty clear they're done with it.

Will another network pick it up? I don't know. I never like those odds, but nor can they be ruled out. While Sony isn't likely to give the show away for nothing, there is a history to suggest it is sometimes willing to do deep discounts. With regard to syndication proximity, Happy Endings is in a worse position than Cougar Town was last year, but not dramatically worse (Happy Endings will end the current season with 57 episodes, Cougar Town had 61 after its last season on ABC.)

CBS Renews Pretty Much Everything Except Criminal Minds and Two and a Half Men

CBS announced the renewal of several shows including The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Notably absent from the announcement were Criminal Minds and Two and Half Men which we predict (and are still predicting) will be renewed. Though I have removed the "likely" and "certain" distinctions in the table below, both shows are still certain renewals. Chalk it up to contract negotiations in the case of Criminal Minds and both contract negotiations and licensing negotiations in the case of Two and a Half Men.

The Carrie Diaries Downgraded to Likely Cancellation; "Beauty And The Beast" Still a Likely Cancellation

I've downgraded The Carrie Diaries to likely cancellation so now have both it and Beauty And The Beast as likely cancellations. I still favor "Carrie" ever so slightly but that's only because if CW renews Beauty And The Beast it will land somewhere else on the schedule than Thursday at 9pm and its ratings can be expected to fall.

I don't expect any announcement for either show until the upfronts in May. The above predictions could still change several times between now and then!

Nashville & Body Of Proof

Yes,  I noticed that Body Of Proof is recently out-rating Nashville.  For now, that alone doesn't sway me to change the predictions for either. But that could change very soon. Besides, the "bubble" section in the table below is looking pretty sparse now.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty And The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cult CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com

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  • Reyna

    @ Brad

    For the past couple of weeks it has been, TV Guide, EOnline, and a couple of others that I have seen on Twitter.

  • Brandy

    Reyna, I need to correct something. The site listing BATB,Nikita as looking good and HoD as not looking good also has Carrie Diaries as looking good.
    All these sites have thier own predictions and base them on different things like tvbtn is scritcly ratings and syndication where the site having Nikita,CD BATB as could go either way uses ratings live +7 and industry insiders while the site you mentioned and the site listing Nikita,CD as tossups, HoD likley renwal in Jan use insider info.
    Im not sure tvbtm uses inside info or bases thier thier predictions on what other sites say.

  • Ally

    Every site is saying something different, and they all will continue to guess, and thats fine, we’re all here to predict. BUT what i dont get is why BATB is in ‘likely to be cancelled when it still has a chance… it’s a bubble show. You guys should at least put it in that category incase it returns with steady or god forbid, Higher ratings. After all, it is the CW, which is use to having not so great ratings, And as someone else pointed out, if they cancel both #BatB & #TCD then they that means they would have 2 be more confident in thier 5 new shows than they are with BatB having steady ratings, which i strongly doubt.
    Fingers still Crossed for BatB despite it all.

  • Claudia

    Why wouldn’t you move BATB to bubble show? Its clear that the ratings have stayed the same even went back to .6 in two consecutive weeks after a three week .5, its no way BATB and TCD range. Aren’t you being a little biased towards the show? I thought between you and Bill, would give you credit of being the less bias of the two IMO.

  • Reyna

    Given a lot has changed since January and the shows are hiatus now (a few anyway), this is why several others including myself are questioning his predictions.

  • Reyna

    Given a lot has changed since January and the shows are on hiatus now (a few anyway), this is why several others including myself are questioning his predictions.

  • HV

    What I don’t understand is why TV by the Numbers only looks at how a show does January on. I think that you should switch The New Normal and Whitney on your list. And why is Rules of Engagement on the bubble still? Move it to cancelation predicted! And Go On should leave the bubble too. It belongs in renewal predicted.

  • yea

    I really hope that Glee will be back with the new season :)
    I would also love to see more of CD, I hope it won’t get cancelled after all :(

    Fingers crossed

  • Ultima

    @HV
    What I don’t understand is why TV by the Numbers only looks at how a show does January on.

    Because it gets better prediction results than looking at season averages does.

    I think that you should switch The New Normal and Whitney on your list.

    The New Normal is the second lowest rated NBC sitcom after 1600 Penn. There’s no chance it is going to be renewed.

    And Go On should leave the bubble too. It belongs in renewal predicted.

    Except for this week (which was entirely due to The Voice), Go On hasn’t done better than a 1.1 rating since January.

  • Norma

    @Brandy

    All the sites you list from don’t know anything of whats going on the site Reyna just posted about is insider source. The site says exactly like the new CW NOW promo looks like ;-)

  • HV

    @Ultima
    I don’t know much about ratings, but isn’t 1.1 good for a freshman NBC comedy with practicly no lead in competing with New Girl and NCIS: Los Angeles? NBC will have a bunch of new comedies next year because it will renew very few, but I think that Go On is the second most likely comedy on NBC to be renewed.

  • rob60990

    A 1.1 rating is never good especially for a freshman show except the CW.

  • Danak

    Darkridedan said:
    “I hate to ask a silly question, but it does seem to be an elephant in the room. Why is Smash listed as cancelled? I realize it will be moved to Saturdays and that it’s a poorly ran show, but I haven’t found anything anywhere stating it has been cancelled, save for that article here on NBC shows.”

    There’s been no official announcement (yet), but moving a show to Saturdays is normally a kiss of death, and along with its very poor ratings, TVBTN is predicting that it will not see a 3rd season.

  • omabin

    @HV,

    The bar is set higher for freshman shows actually, so it is the opposite. This is because most shows’ ratings tend to decline the older they are (there are, obviously exceptions), so a network does not renew a show that is low rated in its first season usually, because it will mean that in future seasons it will be even lower-rated. This is especially true if shows started off very big (as Go On did) but lost its audience, as that shows lack of growth potential. Scandal, for instance, was never sampled last year, but once ABC got it sampled with the president being shot storyline, the audience stick around – it had never lost too much audience, so it still have growth potential. Go On, unfortunately, doesn’t appear to have so, as even with the voice behind it is struggling to pull a 2.0. It still have a shot, but that is just a testament to how bad NBC is doing with their comedies, not with the performance of the show – a 1.1 is certainly not a good level for it, at all.

  • TV Addict

    @Justin121 Ummmmm yeah, #Community is the only show worthy of HASHTAGS involving the number of seasons it will get.
    #sixseasonsandamovie

  • Jonay

    I don’t get how Nashville can be renewed and Body Of Proof isn’t Body of Proof has a harder time slot than Nashville??

  • PARIS

    I don’t see The Neighbors coming back next season. ABC will not release any new comedy at Wednesdays?

  • Lulu

    To predict cancellation in regards to #BatB is so majorly wrong. It does NOT belong in that category. The very least is under the category of “The Bubble”. Epic fail on TVBTN’s part.

  • Adrian

    I agree there’s just no chance in hell that TCD will be back.

    It’s at 0.4 on its first season, needs 75 episodes for syndication even Nikita matches that on Fri (and we know Nikita’s ratings are horrible)

    ” if CW renews Beauty And The Beast it will land somewhere else on the schedule than Thursday at 9pm and its ratings can be expected to fall.”

    and Carrie’s ratings won’t fall? how low will it be in a year from now? 0.2? 0.1?

  • Tyson

    RV,

    “isn’t 1.1 good”

    Except for The CW and some cable networks, Hell No!

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