NBC: Be The Cancellation Bear, Which NBC Shows Would You Cancel?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 2nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 27, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn :oops: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Go On :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
The Office final season 1.45
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.83
Up All Night :oops: pending

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This is a special short week version of the post. The table above includes news and ratings through Wednesday, March 27 only.

No changed predictions from the Cancellation Bear this week, he's soaking up the sun, but it's your chance to be the bear.

Which NBC show(s) not currently renewed or canceled would you devour? (Vote for as many shows, as many times as you want. As are all internet polls, this is meaningless.)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Tommy Mickens

    Ultima wrote: I’m guessing you won’t be around to eat crow when its cancelled.

    Actually, I’ve been around for awhile, I just don’t bother posting all that much anymore. I was waiting until TNN went back to its after-Voice spot before really posting on it. I knew the ratings would go up (as everyone should have known, including Bill Gorman). But I’ve been posting consistently for weeks and weeks now about TNN, that it shouldn’t be “certain” to be cancelled. It’s just I’m not usually one of those to be here the second this is all posted, so my posts are on like comments page 10 usually.

    Ultima wrote: Actually, it’s completely reasonable to think that a scripted show on NBC would be canceled after a 0.7 rating for a regular airing.

    It’s completely reasonable to think it MAY be cancelled. And it’s completely reasonable to think it’s “likely” to be cancelled. But it’s absolutely preposterous to say it’s “certain” to be cancelled looking at the other factors, such as -

    -NBC being willing to use up precious after-Voice time for TNN’s last episodes
    -shows on the bubble scoring a 1.0 (has it gone lower? I only looked at Whitney’s last week, where BOTH eps were new and BOTH were a dismal 1.0)

    You’re acting like TNN is scoring a 0.7 and everything else is 2.0. NBC only wishes! LOL. EVERYTHING ELSE, which in this context is most other NBC sitcoms, are all in a very similar position, being that they’re all doing terribly and very similarly.

    Your and Bill Gorman’s logic is that it’s more important to NBC that Whitney is doing consistently (and crappily) better. That might be a good final argument, except then, explain to me why NBC is putting TNN on after the Voice and not Whitney? Huh?

    Oh, that’s right, because NBC is wanting TNN to succeed, for whatever reason. And when you have a ratings cesspool of sitcoms where some of them (probably) have to be renewed despite their dismal ratings, the network wanting to help one of those sitcoms and letting it air after the network’s biggest show for its final episodes, is pretty persuasive to me that it’s at least a “toss-up” for renewal.

  • Tommy Mickens

    Cougar Town Forever wrote: I am assuming that Tommy Mickens is just trying to pick an argument, or is related to the producer of the show. It is so painfully obvious that TNN should be cancelled. That said, it’s wired that two episodes of it are airing after the Voice tonight. It kind of feels like NBC is trying anything to bring it back. I actually wouldn’t be stunned to see it back. NBC has done wackier things.

    I am not just trying to pick an argument. I’ve been saying this about TNN for weeks now. “Painfully obvious” that TNN should be cancelled? LOL. What’s “painfully obvious” is that NBC’s sitcoms are almost ALL in the crapper as far as ratings are concerned. TNN is not some special case here.

    You said it yourself – it’s weird that NBC is airing the final TNN eps after the Voice. Why do you think that is? Why not Whitney? Why not Community? Both of those are only “toss-up” at the moment and need help too. If TNN is such a lost cause, why bother?

    Oh, that’s right, because NBC wants it to succeed. My guess? They like having a gay-rights comedy, making the network look progressive (after all, their cable news channel is the liberal version of Fox News). Or maybe they like Ryan Murphy for whatever reason and want his show to succeed. Who knows. But whatever the reason they like it, TNN is at the moment stuck in the mud with a bunch of other low-rated NBC toss-up sitcoms hoping for renewal, and NBC choosing not the other sitcoms but TNN for an after-Voice ratings boost (and from the network’s perspective, a chance for the show to gain more fans) is telling.

  • FringeFan

    Here’s my thoughts:
    Cancel -
    Whitney
    Guys With Kids
    The New Normal
    Law & Order: SVU
    Deception
    Up All Night
    1600 Penn

    Renew –
    Go On (Move to a Friday comedy hour at 8)
    Community (Move to a Friday comedy hour at 8:30)

  • Tommy Mickens

    Anthony wrote: You clearly ignored the second bullet point in my comment, which is a major part of the reason TNN is certain to be cancelled. It completely flopped when it wasn’t airing after the Voice. It’s ratings are only remotely acceptable when the show is on after the Voice, which if renewed, would not be the case next season.

    I ignored the second point because the first point was so off.

    I understand it flopped when not after the Voice. Although, it wasn’t an immediate “complete” flop. It was a slow drop in ratings which finally got to I think a 0.7.

    And you know what though? It’s not alone! All the NBC sitcoms have been flopping! Even Whitney which is still a toss-up. Even Community, which dropped big-time from its season premiere numbers. If the channel wasn’t FlopBC then I might agree with you that TNN is certain to be cancelled. But NBC has moved to Flopville, and in Flopville, you’ve either got to cancel almost everything, or renew some of the flops.

    NBC may cancel almost everything and surprise us all and start over fresh next year. But most of us assume they will do as all networks do and keep a certain amount of shows for next year regardless. So some of these flops are making it to next year. My argument is that why would all of you think TNN DEFINITELY has no shot of a renewal when its ratings without the Voice aren’t THAT MUCH different from say Whitney, and its ratings with the Voice are BETTER than Whitney, AND the cherry on top being that NBC is willing to use precious after-Voice time to air the final TNN eps, meaning that NBC still likes this show for SOME reason and is helping it out.

    Oh, and lol at TNN’s ratings only being “remotely acceptable” after the Voice. A 1.3 is about hit territory for an NBC sitcom at this point in time, lol. And being DIRECTLY after the Voice tonight (not actually after Go On) will probably bring in bigger ratings than that.

  • Elliot

    TNN will be back for season two. That’s why the finale is airing after The Voice. That’s what the cast and crew have been hinting in the latest interviews. And that’s what NBC wants. Love it or hate it, TNN will be back. And according to some rumors, with an extended cast.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I’d kill Revolution, but of course if I was NBC that would be stupid – but morally correct given how stupid the show is.

  • Elliot

    By the way, TNN’s lows were after Go On’s lows. Lesson: Go On sinks, TNN sinks. It’s not TNN. While at 9:30, TNN competition was listerally everything, including series that have been on air longer than TNN. Go On wasn’t a good companion. Go On is pretty much an adult drama… not a young adult comedy like TNN. Looking forward tonite’s demos after The Voice so that everyone can chill…

  • Samfan

    Please renew Guys with kids

  • Brad

    Whitney, Community, and Go On should be able to come back.

  • starship

    Cancel:
    1600 Penn
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night
    The New Normal
    Deception

    I’d personally cancel Go On and Community as well since their ratings are terrible, but I guess NBC will give Community 10-13 episodes midseason to get it to syndication and they might keep Go On if they don’t have enough good pilots.

  • Safari

    Nbc Giys with kids is ur future family comedy, it’s up to u

  • Cyrax86

    Revolution
    Go On
    Whitney

  • NBC123

    Cancel TNN GO 1600 penn UAN deception

    Renew Gwk revolution community the office

  • Californiadgd

    Monday:
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 New Drama

    Tuesday:
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 New Comedy
    9:30 New Comedy
    10:00 Parenthood

    Wednesday:
    8:00 Revolution
    9:00 New Drama
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    Thursday:
    8:00 Whitney
    8:30 Community
    9:00 Parks & Recs
    9:30 Go On
    10:00 Law and Order

    Friday:
    8:00 Hanibal/Dracula
    9:00 Grimm

  • Ultima

    @Tommy Mickens
    NBC being willing to use up precious after-Voice time for TNN’s last episodes

    Presumably, if they had enough Ready for Love, it would have premiered last week and The New Normal would have been moved to another night.

    Also, you’re ignoring the fact that The New Normal was originally scheduled for four weeks after The Voice and they cut it back to two, including replacing repeats with originals the week before The Voice returned.

    You’re acting like TNN is scoring a 0.7 and everything else is 2.0.

    No, but everything except 1600 Penn is doing better than The New Normal. The four sitcoms that could potentially get renewed haven’t dropped below a 1.0, while The New Normal has done so three of its past five episodes.

    The New Normal is under 80% of NBC’s scripted average. Freshman shows don’t get renewed with those kind of ratings. The Cancellation Bear makes mistakes, but I’m pretty sure he’s perfect in that category.

  • Ultima

    @Tommy Mickens
    NBC may cancel almost everything and surprise us all and start over fresh next year.

    You’ll be surprised when they do, I won’t. The numbers say they should cut sitcoms in favor of dramas.

    They started the year with five dramas and ten sitcoms on the schedule and will finish with five dramas and three sitcoms. Looks like they’re headed towards cutting comedy time (and renewals) to me.

  • bjssp

    What’s the opposite of Sophie’s Choice? I guess it would be the NBC schedule.

    As far as the comedies go, I’d only give Parks a full season without much thought, but even then, there’s a strong case for holding it until midseason. At this point, I’d probably wipe the slate clean. NBC could pick two or three more shows to go along with its Michael J. Fox comedy and focus on them, hoping to rebrand its image. As I’ve said, put them on Monday and Tuesdays and then (slowly) expand at midseason.

    With the dramas, it’s easier to renew them, but much, much harder to schedule them. I think there’s a strong case for moving a show like Chicago Fire to Fridays. Like Grimm, I bet it would hold most if not all of its audience, but unlike other shows, I think its potential is more limited. NBC has a lot of great-sounding pilots, but few of them seem to mesh well with this show. But then, there’s Parenthood, which could still run for many more seasons and sees like it might pair well with CF. Considering the trouble NBC is having and the fact that CF seems to be finding its footing, perhaps it’s easier to pair that show with Parenthood and put a new drama in front of it. It could then put its new, flashy dramas on Thursdays and/or Fridays.

    Also, it’s time to call it quits for SVU. If you really, really want to continue the franchise, have Dick Wolf turn the CF-spinoff into Law & Order: Chicago or wait a season or two and then reboot the original in New York. But this isn’t going to return to its former glory and is taking up valuable real estate. Make next season the last and end some point in early 2014.

  • bjssp

    @Ultima:

    The thing is, NBC doesn’t have to make that strict of a trade off with comedies and dramas. I assume it’ll program at least 2 hours, although I guess the absolute lowest amount is 1 hour, but whatever the case, let’s remember that virtually nothing besides reality has aired on Sundays since football has ended. That’s 3 whole hours of programming that NBC could fill with something besides repeats or The Apprentice.

    Along the same lines, some of its dramas will have shortened seasons or easily could. Hannibal, if it’s renewed, won’t go beyond 13 episodes, while Crossbones is only ordered for 10. And while I don’t see its season being shortened that dramatically, if at all, Revolution might see an order of less than 20 episodes. I say this because NBC could quite easily fit all of these shows into a new Sunday night line up and have lots of room on the rest of its schedule.

  • Ultima

    @bjssp

    I was talking about fall schedules. They are renewing all five of their fall dramas from this season, so they will have to cut something if they want to premiere new dramas. My guess is that they cut two hours of sitcoms, the entirity of which is returning comedies.

    I don’t think they’ll hold any veteran scripted shows for mideason (except Hannibal if it hits); they have the Olympics and will use it to launch new shows. In 2010, only Chuck was held for midseason and that was only because of The Jay Leno Show.

  • Paul P

    @TV DUDE actually has a good schedule – The Voice Revolution PArenthood & SVU are only shows worth saving & I don’t even like Parenthood.

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