Bubble Watch: ‘Vegas’ Craps Out on Friday; ‘Go On’ Still on the Bubble + ‘How To Live With Your Parents’ and ‘Hannibal’
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
The writing was etched fairly deeply into the wall when CBS announced Vegas was moving to Fridays. But like gamblers hoping to get on a hot streak and win back what they’ve lost, many fans held out hope that Vegas would get hot enough on Fridays to keep itself in the renewal discussion. In TV ratings, as in gambling ” ‘hope’ ain’t nothin’ but a four letter word.”
Vegas came in third with adults 18-49 in the preliminary ratings for Friday, trailing both Shark Tank and Grimm by wide margins. That it came in ahead of Touch and had the most total viewers in the hour are no consolation, at least not in terms of Vegas‘ renewal prospects.
Go On & The New Normal
I’d hoped that the return of The Voice might clear things up a little bit with regard to Go On. There’s a case to be made that it did, and that Go On should just be moved to “likely cancellation.” I may do that yet, but for now it’s still a bubble show. For a brief period it looked like a might have to instead upgrade The New Normal to the bubble since its preliminary ratings in the direct afterglow of The Voice were as good as Go On‘s. But The New Normal was adjusted down in the finals and it aired after a telecast of The Voice that performed four-tenths better with adults 18-49 than the one that led into Go On a week earlier.
How To Live with Your Parents & Hannibal
How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) got off to a good start after Modern Family on Wednesday and Hannibal had a so-so debut on Thursday. For now, I have them both on the bubble pending at least another week of data. It’s not uncommon for shows to premiere well out of Modern Family only to quickly fade.
Someone asked me if I thought NBC would cut Hannibal some slack since NBC has had so many recent woes Thursdays at 10pm. Short answer: not if it falls to a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. If it stabilizes at around a 1.2-1.3, I’ll probably cut it a little bit more slack than I did for Deception on Mondays and at least keep it on the bubble.
Body of Proof & Nashville
At least in theory those who said that I should have bumped Nashville down to the bubble and upgraded Body of Proof to the bubble last week shouldn’t have any problems that I still have Nashville as a renewal and Body of Proof as a likely cancellation this week. Let’s see how it works out in practice!
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final Season Finished|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season Finished|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|Fringe||Fox||Final Season Finished|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Office, The||NBC||Final Season|
|Red Widow||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Golden Boy||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Up All Night||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The New Normal||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|How to Live with Your Parents…||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Hannibal||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Middle, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Modern Family||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Renewed|