Bubble Watch: 'Vegas' Craps Out on Friday; 'Go On' Still on the Bubble + 'How To Live With Your Parents' and 'Hannibal'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 7th, 2013

Lucky Dice

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Vegas

The writing was etched fairly deeply into the wall when CBS announced Vegas was moving to Fridays. But like gamblers hoping to get on a hot streak and win back what they've lost, many fans held out hope that Vegas would get hot enough on Fridays to keep itself in the renewal discussion.  In TV ratings, as in gambling " 'hope' ain't nothin' but a four letter word."

Vegas came in third with adults 18-49 in the preliminary ratings for Friday, trailing both Shark Tank and Grimm by wide margins. That it came in ahead of Touch and had the most total viewers in the hour are no consolation, at least not in terms of Vegas' renewal prospects.

Go On & The New Normal

I'd hoped that the return of The Voice might clear things up a little bit with regard to Go On. There's a case to be made that it did, and that Go On should just be moved to "likely cancellation." I may do that yet, but for now it's still a bubble show. For a brief period it looked like a might have to instead upgrade The New Normal to the bubble since its preliminary ratings in the direct afterglow of The Voice were as good as Go On's. But The New Normal was adjusted down in the finals and it aired after a telecast of The Voice that performed four-tenths better with adults 18-49 than the one that led into Go On a week earlier.

How To Live With Your Parents & Hannibal

How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) got off to a good start after Modern Family on Wednesday and Hannibal had a so-so debut on Thursday. For now, I have them both on the bubble pending at least another week of data. It's not uncommon for shows to premiere well out of Modern Family only to quickly fade.

Someone asked me if I thought NBC would cut Hannibal some slack since NBC has had so many recent woes Thursdays at 10pm. Short answer: not if it falls to a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. If it stabilizes at around a 1.2-1.3, I'll probably cut it a little bit more slack than I did for Deception on Mondays and at least keep it on the bubble.

Body Of Proof & Nashville

At least in theory those who said that I should have bumped Nashville down to the bubble and upgraded Body Of Proof to the bubble last week shouldn't have any problems that I still have Nashville as a renewal and Body Of Proof as a likely cancellation this week.  Let's see how it works out in practice!

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty And The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cult CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

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  • Richard Steven Hack

    Body of Proof’s only hope for renewal is if it can claw its way back up to near 2.0. I doubt it can do that. It did have a large jump between two episodes this season, but I suspect it will drift downward into 1.0-1.2 cancellation territory. If it can stay around 1.5, for a spring show with shortened episodes, they might renew it. Despite being in a third season, it has no chance for syndication because there are too few episodes in the can and it would required more than two full 22-episode seasons to reach 88 episodes. Given season to season drops, the odds are this is its last season.

    It’s possible that Hannibal may actually grow in the next couple episodes given the quality and buzz about the show. The odds favor it dropping however,unfortunately. This was probably the most compelling premiere I’ve seen all season.

    On the CW, Cult and TCD are doomed. BATB is likely doomed, but we probably won’t know for sure given the external factors until it is canceled. It should be canceled both due to quality and likely even poorer performance next season, but the CW may have reasons to renew it – which nonetheless I think would be a mistake.

    Nikita remains a lock for season four due to syndication.

    And Robert: I STILL hate the color scheme for the table! It’s HORRIBLE!

  • PurpleDrazi

    @TSC’s Revenge

    Are you seriously trying to tell us that BATB is not geared towards females?

    Really?

  • Spencer

    Can someone please tell me why NBC is wasting a Voice lead-in for Ready for Love and didn’t try to launch…oh i don’t know…Hannibal instead of sticking it on Thursday at 10 in its death slot…???

  • Claudia

    I love the underdog effect, some people cant comment if they are not spewing hate towards the show they don’t like. Sheers for BATB second season, despite some thinking is a mistake as if they are CW executives, laughable!

  • Flame

    Still like Go on, but with those ratings I wouldn’t hold it against NBC if they cancel the show.

  • david

    I to saw the interview with Mark Pedowits to and it sounds like his plan is to expand the audience from just shows geared to woman but some more to men as well. So the CW wont be so one sided anymore for next season.

  • S

    NASHVILLE IS GOLD – RENEW IT!

  • John A

    I watched Hannibal. It was alright but it doesnt scream hit to me. It will probably get a 1.2 this week then canned. Ill watch it just to see Gillian Anderson when she starts on it.

  • Red Jane

    I am hopeful for hannibal mainly because I liked it and would like to see more of it (wishful thinking I know) and because the ratings are not awful in an NBC context. I hope the second ep beats the premiere… It would mean those who saw the premiere liked it enough to come back for more + some word of mouth attracted new viewers… fingers crossed!!!

  • bob

    renew vegas, rest on that list is crap

  • Illinois

    My guess

    ABC
    Happy Endings = Renewed but move to USA
    Red Widow = canceled
    Body of Proof = Renewed
    Malibu Country = Renewed
    How to Live with Your Parents = Renewed
    Once Upon a Time = Renewed
    Scandal = Renewed
    Revenge = Renewed
    Grey’s Anatomy = Renewed (Final Season)
    The Middle = Renewed
    Suburgatory = Renewed
    The Neighbors = Renewed
    Modern Family = Renewed
    Nashville = Renewed
    Castle = Renewed

    CBS
    CSI: NY = Renewed (Final Season)
    Two and a Half Men = canceled
    Criminal Minds = Renewed
    Rules of Engagement = canceled
    Vegas = canceled (soon)
    Golden Boy = canceled
    Friend Me = Probably already canceled

    FOX
    The Cleveland Show = canceled (burnoff is on)
    Glee = Renewed
    Touch = canceled

    NBC
    Whitney = canceled
    The New Normal = canceled
    Guys with Kids = canceled
    Go On = Renewed
    Parks & Recreation = Renewed
    Community = Renewed (Thanks to Syndication Gods)
    Law & Order: SVU = Renewed
    Chicago Fire = Renewed
    Deception = canceled
    Revolution = Renewed
    Smash = canceled
    Grimm = Renewed
    Hannibal = Renewed
    Up all Night = canceled
    Prenthood = Renewed
    1600 Penn = canceled

    CW
    Cult = canceled
    Beauty and the Beast = Renewed
    Nikita = Renewed
    The Carrie Diaries = canceled
    Hart of Dixie = Renewed

  • Dan W

    Still think The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast are in the same boat. I know TCD dropped to a 0.3 last week, but I truly believe if The CW were to renew BATB, it would definitely be getting the same ratings as TCD next season. The best it can get out of a 1.2-1.3 lead in has been 0.6 lately…definitely expect it to premiere to 0.4 or less should it be renewed. Either way, I think which ever show The CW decides to renew (if either of these two as they may be canceled as well), they will only give it a 13 episode second season trial run to see what the ratings do anyway. I don’t think either show has a long future on The CW.

  • HV

    My schedules:

    ABC:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 America’s Funniest Home Videos (Sept. 15)
    8:00 Once Upon a Time (Sept. 22) (13 ep)/Once Upon a Time spin-off (NEW) (Jan. 5) (10 ep)/Once Upon a Time (Mar. 16) (11 ep)
    9:00 Revenge (Sept. 22) (24 ep)
    10:00 Lucky 7 (NEW) (Sept. 22) (22 ep–canceled)

    MONDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the Stars (Sept. 16)/The Bachelor (Jan. 6)/Dancing with the Stars (Mar. 17)
    10:00 Castle (Sept. 16) (24 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Suburgatory (Oct. 1) (22 ep)
    8:30 How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) (Oct. 1) (22 ep)
    9:00 Dancing with the Stars (Sept. 17)/The Taste (Jan. 7)/Dancing with the Stars (Mar. 18)
    10:00 Body of Proof (Sept. 17) (22/ ep)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The Middle (Sept. 18) (24 ep)
    8:30 Family Tools (Sept. 25) (9 ep–canceled)/Mixology (NEW) (Jan. 8) (18 ep)
    9:00 Modern Family (Sept. 18) (24 ep)
    9:30 Spy (NEW) (Sept. 25) (24 ep)
    10:00 Nashville (Oct. 2) (22 ep)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 S.H.E.I.L.D. (NEW) (Sept. 26) (24 ep)
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    10:00 Scandal (Sept. 19) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Last Man Standing (Oct. 4) (24 ep)
    8:30 Malibu Country (Oct. 4) (22 ep–canceled)
    9:00 Primetime (Sept. 13)/Shark Tank (Jan. 3)
    10:00 20/20 (Sept. 13)

    NBC:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 Sunday Night Football/Dateline NBC (Jan. 5)
    9:00 (Sunday Night Football)/The Apprentice (Jan. 5)

    MONDAY
    8:00 The Voice (Sept. 9)/Biggest Loser (Jan. 6)/The Voice (Mar. 31)
    10:00 Dracula (NEW) (Sept. 9) (10 ep)/The Black List (NEW) (Jan. 6) (10 ep–canceled)/Dracula (NEW) (Mar. 31) (9 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 The Voice (Sept. 10)/Betty White’s Off Their Rockers (Jan. 7)/The Voice (Apr. 1)
    9:00 Go On (Sept. 10) (24 ep)
    9:30 Undateable (NEW) (Sept. 17) (22 ep)
    10:00 Parenthood (FINAL) (Sept. 10) (22 ep)/Rand Ravich (NEW) (Mar. 25) (10 ep–canceled)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Revolution (Sept. 11) (24 ep)
    9:00 Chicago Fire (Sept. 11) (24 ep)
    10:00 Chicago Fire spin-off (Sept. 11) (22 ep–canceled)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 Community (FINAL) (Sept. 19) (10 ep)/Joe, Joe, and Jane (Jan. 9) (13 ep)
    8:30 MJF (NEW) (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    9:00 The Gates (NEW) (Sept. 19) (22 ep)
    9:30 Parks & Recreation (FINAL) (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    10:00 Law & Order: SVU (Sept. 12) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Crossbones (NEW) (Sept. 20) (19 ep)//Grimm (Mar. 28) (10 ep)
    9:00 Grimm (Sept. 20) (10 ep)/Dateline NBC (Jan. 3)
    10:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams (Sept. 6)

    CBS:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 60 Minutes (Sept. 8)
    8:00 The Amazing Race (Sept. 15)
    9:00 The Good Wife (FINAL) (Sept. 22) (22 ep)
    10:00 (NEW) The Anatomy of Violence (Sept. 22) (22 ep–canceled)

    MONDAY
    8:00 How I Met Your Mother (FINAL) (Sept. 23) (24 ep)
    8:30 Gaffigan (NEW) (Sept. 23) (22 ep)//Jacked Up (NEW) (Mar. 31) (8 ep–canceled)
    9:00 2 Broke Girls (Sept. 23) (24 ep)
    9:30 Ex Men (NEW) (Sept. 30) (10 ep–canceled)/Mike & Molly (Jan. 6) (18 ep)
    10:00 Hawaii Five-0 (Sept. 23) (24 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 NCIS (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    9:00 NCIS: Los Angeles (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    10:00 NCIS: Los Angeles spin-off (Sept. 24) (22 ep)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Survivor (Sept. 18)/The Mentalist (Jan. 8) (15 ep–canceled)
    9:00 Criminal Minds (Sept. 25) (24 ep)
    10:00 CSI (Sept. 25) (24 ep)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    8:30 Two and a Half Men (FINAL) (Sept. 26) (24 ep)
    9:00 Person of Interest (Sept. 19) (24 ep)
    10:00 Elementary (Sept. 19) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Undercover Boss (Oct. 11)
    9:00 Second Sight (NEW) (Oct. 4) (22 ep)
    10:00 Blue Bloods (Sept. 27) (24 ep)

    Fox:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 NFL on Fox/The OT (Nov.3)/Encore Progaming (Jan. 5)
    7:30 The OT/Bob’s Burgers (Nov. 3) (22 ep)
    8:00 The Simpsons (Sept. 22) (24 ep)
    8:30 Murder Police (NEW) (Sept. 22) (22 ep)
    9:00 Family Guy (Sept. 22) (24 ep)
    9:30 American Dad! (Sept. 22) (22 ep)

    MONDAY
    8:00 Bones (Sept. 16) (24 ep)
    9:00 The Following (Sept. 23) (15 ep)//Boomerang (NEW) (Mar. 3) (10 ep–canceled)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Raising Hope (FINAL) (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    8:30 The Gabriels (NEW) (Sept. 17) (22 ep)
    9:00 New Girl (Sept. 17) (24 ep)
    9:30 The Mindy Project (Sept. 24) (22 ep–canceled)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The X Factor (Sept. 11)/American Idol (Jan. 8)
    9:30 Dads (NEW) (Sept. 18) (6 ep)/(The X-Factor) (Oct. 30)/(American Idol) (Jan. 8)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 The X Factor (Sept. 12)/American Idol (Jan. 9)
    9:00 Glee (Sept. 12) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Kitchen Nightmares (Oct. 11)/Challenge Me (NEW) (Mar. 7)
    9:00 The List (NEW) (Sept. 27) (22 ep)

    The CW:

    MONDAY
    8:00 Beauty and the Beast (Sept. 23) (22 ep–canceled)
    9:00 The Hundred (NEW) (Sept. 23) (22 ep)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Heart of Dixie (Sept. 17) (22 ep)
    9:00 The Tomorow People (NEW) (Sept. 17) (22 ep–canceled)//Oh Sit! (Apr. 15)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 Arrow (Sept. 25) (24 ep)
    9:00 Supernatural (Sept. 18) (24 ep)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries (Sept. 12) (24 ep)
    9:00 The Originals (NEW) (Sept. 19) (24 ep)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Nikita (Sept. 20) (24 ep)
    9:00 The Selection (NEW) (Sept. 27) (22 ep–canceled)

    Thoughts?

  • HV

    @Illinois
    I agree with 100% everything on your renew/cancel list except CSI: NY.
    (And though Hannibal is not listed on my schedule, I think it will get renewed, but as a summer show)

  • John A

    Anybody know who produces Hannibal? Is it NBC themselves?

  • chris

    Body Of Proof and Nashville are both bubble shows imo. With that said, the many downfalls of abc underperforming shows benefit Nashville in the aspects of a Renewal process.

    A lot of people mention the CW in regards to CD versus BATB not to forget HOD. First of all Carrie is not the new HOD. It is a goner. HOD was a freshman show last season with a horrible, low rated leadin and managed to build out of the audience it was provided before it. Its ratings were not great, but showed stability in which other new shows couldn’t hold an audience with twice the leadin.

    With this said, Carrie will be gone and Beauty and the Beast should be back. Hart of Dixie will stay, however it should move to 9 and not be a leadin on Tuesday nights. I’m so sick of people typing that HOD does great considering Tuesday Night competition?!!? Ummm….. NBC w/o Voice bombed, ABC comedies and Reality competitions failed, FOX Comedy Block is blah, and CBS NCIS shows are hits with the total audience but younger viewers are meh when we consider the demo to total viewer ratio.

    HOD will get a Season 3 though, I just hope CW rethinks, restrategizes, and reorganizes better for the new season. I will be very interested to see the new schedules in May in particular for CW and ABC. I can see BATB being picked up, not because it is a hit show, I mean its ratings are pretty absymal considering it has the number 1 network show as its leadin, but unlike TSC its ratings have stabilized where SC slowly declined hitting low after low. If CW had other shows renewal worthy then of course BATB would be gone. But alot of networks sacrifice because all of them are filled with shows underperforming at a more alarming rate!!! And this my friends are the reasons why a lot of shows are renewed, when typically in the past they are usually exiled with no chance of reuniting with viewers that hopelessly followed even though they knew in their hearts they were goners!!!!

  • debsafan

    Golden Boy and Body of Proof are both really good shows. But people over 50 are not counted and we are the ones that watch and buy products. TPTB are run by a bunch of children that would rather make cheap reality shows and screw the rest of us.

  • joel

    I thought Hannibal was good enough that I’ll try the 2nd episode too. It’s impossible for me to suspend my disbelief and forget that it’s a contrived derivation from other art, but it’s so unique it’s worth seeing what will happen next and which direction they’ll try to take the show. Is Hannibal the hero? The villain? Is Will the hero? Potential villain? Who knows.

  • Jim

    @debsafan

    Well said. More & more “reality” shows cluttering the airwaves every year. Have no idea why people watch that crap.

  • Brandy

    TSCRevenges, HoD is geared toward women but so is BaTB, only difference is BATB is a genre show while HiD is a medical soap/drama.CW wont completley abondon female viewers, even though it is moving more totowards genre shows and trying to balance guy shows and girls and shows that appeal to both.You also forget that HoD does well online,dvr(better than BATB even),is cheap to make and is closer to syndication than BATB plus gets the same 0 5_0 6 as BATB without the networks best biggest lead in.They will not cancel HoD over BATB.Now BATB may get renewed if they cant afford to cancel and replace it with a new show after replacing LAComplex,GG,EOMD,90210,Cult,Carrie Diaries(most likey), but it could jast as easily be cancelled.

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