Bubble Watch: 'Vegas' Craps Out on Friday; 'Go On' Still on the Bubble + 'How To Live With Your Parents' and 'Hannibal'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 7th, 2013

Lucky Dice

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Vegas

The writing was etched fairly deeply into the wall when CBS announced Vegas was moving to Fridays. But like gamblers hoping to get on a hot streak and win back what they've lost, many fans held out hope that Vegas would get hot enough on Fridays to keep itself in the renewal discussion.  In TV ratings, as in gambling " 'hope' ain't nothin' but a four letter word."

Vegas came in third with adults 18-49 in the preliminary ratings for Friday, trailing both Shark Tank and Grimm by wide margins. That it came in ahead of Touch and had the most total viewers in the hour are no consolation, at least not in terms of Vegas' renewal prospects.

Go On & The New Normal

I'd hoped that the return of The Voice might clear things up a little bit with regard to Go On. There's a case to be made that it did, and that Go On should just be moved to "likely cancellation." I may do that yet, but for now it's still a bubble show. For a brief period it looked like a might have to instead upgrade The New Normal to the bubble since its preliminary ratings in the direct afterglow of The Voice were as good as Go On's. But The New Normal was adjusted down in the finals and it aired after a telecast of The Voice that performed four-tenths better with adults 18-49 than the one that led into Go On a week earlier.

How To Live With Your Parents & Hannibal

How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) got off to a good start after Modern Family on Wednesday and Hannibal had a so-so debut on Thursday. For now, I have them both on the bubble pending at least another week of data. It's not uncommon for shows to premiere well out of Modern Family only to quickly fade.

Someone asked me if I thought NBC would cut Hannibal some slack since NBC has had so many recent woes Thursdays at 10pm. Short answer: not if it falls to a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. If it stabilizes at around a 1.2-1.3, I'll probably cut it a little bit more slack than I did for Deception on Mondays and at least keep it on the bubble.

Body Of Proof & Nashville

At least in theory those who said that I should have bumped Nashville down to the bubble and upgraded Body Of Proof to the bubble last week shouldn't have any problems that I still have Nashville as a renewal and Body Of Proof as a likely cancellation this week.  Let's see how it works out in practice!

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty And The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cult CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

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  • Brandy

    @HV, first CW will not likley premiere a new show on fri and second,I dont think BATB will move anywhete but Fri if its renewed.
    I hope Nashville,HoD, BaTB get renewed

  • Hi

    The CW renew Nikita already.
    :)

  • Layton

    @HV No way does ABC put The Shield on Thursday against Big Bang Theory. It is their biggest new show and that would be a tough spot. I still think it will either be on Tuesday or Sunday. It will just depend on how sitcoms ABC picks up next season.

  • Cyrax86

    @Layton, It won’t be scheduled against Sunday Night Football either… My guess would be Wednesday 10 pm instead.

  • loL

    Cw, renew HOD and Nikita already :D

  • Brendan

    Please you have to renew Go On, Community and Whitney at least for NBC and for CBS renew Rules of Engagement.

  • HV

    @Brandy
    Do you think The CW would air two new shows on Monday or move Supernatural to Monday @ 8:00?
    @Layton
    With my schedule ABC makes few changes and puts what will likely be one of their strongest shows in the Thursday @ 8:00 death slot. My other option I was considering though is something based on what I’ve seen on some people’s schedules putting Sheild on Tuesday @ 8:00 and Shark Tank on Thursday @ 8:00. Then I would put Suburgatory and HTLWYP after LMS and MC.

  • Brandy

    @HV, I dont think its likley CW will air two new shows on Mon, but its possible.But I think theyll move HoD or SPN to one on Mon, one on Tues and pair them with new shows.
    @Chris are you kidding?The Voice is one of bradcast network highest rated shows so is NCIS and Dancing is still well rated.Then theres cable competition, Justified, Covert Affairs,Rizzoli & Isels,White Collar and moreespcially abcfamily going after the same young adult/young women demo as HoD.CW president himself said “it stands out on a tough night” at the TCAs in Jan.

  • Jared

    BatB isn’t going anywhere. Mark my words.

  • TSC’s Revenge

    @PurpleDrazi

    Are you seriously trying to tell us that BATB is not geared towards females?

    @Brandy

    TSCRevenges, HoD is geared toward women but so is BaTB

    Sure BATB is “somewhat” geared to women; however, it also has an element that could be attractive to men as well, i.e. it’s a cop show w/some action.  In comparison, HOD has nothing but relationships and relationship drama.  Speaking as a man, I find it rather off-putting, not to mention, boring and predictable.  TCD is off the charts geared toward women. 

    Of course, that said, I’m not quite sure who Rachel Bilson is sleeping with at CW. ;)  However, it does seem that she get more than her share of deference when it comes to the survivability of the shows she’s on. 

  • Brandy

    @Chris, also Pedowitz said hes” very pleased with HoDs online,OnDemand,dvr performance”.It gets a 0 9_1.0 in Live +7,showing its on a tough night so people dvr it or watch it online,ondemand but people do watch.
    @TSCRevenge, maybe but all the fans of BaTB are females.The hot guy and love story arent going to appeal to most males.Maybe thats Rachel has quite the fanbase from her OC days.

  • Brandy

    @TSCRevenge, that should say most fans on this site and another are mainly females.I dont think ive known a,male fan.The hot guy and love story arent going to appeal to most/many guys.You know VD is mainly targeted at females too, though there some male fans, its mostly females fans.

  • Mi

    @chris
    “I can see BATB being picked up, not because it is a hit show, I mean its ratings are pretty absymal considering it has the number 1 network show as its leadin, but unlike TSC its ratings have stabilized where SC slowly declined hitting low after low.”
    TSC was stable until its last episodes last year. There are still 5 episodes of B&tB left and it’s too early to say its ratings have stabilized.

  • JJF

    I am no longer seeing why Nashville’s chances are better than Body of Proof’s. BoP has proven to be solid filler for midseason, and being a procedural, it’s also a potential syndication thing if it could hang on a bit longer. Nashville’s nowhere near syndication and is a serialized show. Honestly, the only thing Nashville has going for it is ABC not wanting to have cancelled everything from this season.

    Right now, it might make sense to timeshare the shows like they did with PP this season. Nashville is just too weak on it’s own to justify a slot in the fall.

  • Win

    I think at this point it’s avknowledged that BatB is no longer a procedural. Kreuk stated such at the con she attended recently, that the procedural aspect of the show wasnt working and they had to retool the show. She stated that its more of a romance/mythology show….how is that geared towards men?

  • TSC’s Revenge

    @Brandy

    The hot guy and love story arent going to appeal to most/many guys.

    LOL! Don’t forget there is also a HOT girl in the relationship as well. 

    Pedowitz said hes” very pleased with HoDs online,OnDemand,dvr performance”.It gets a 0 9_1.0 in Live +7,showing its on a tough night so people dvr it or watch it online,ondemand but people do watch.

    LOL, yeah I just about fell over when I read that!  It didn’t seem to matter much when it came to TSC, did it?  

  • TSC’s Revenge

    She stated that its more of a romance/mythology show….how is that geared towards men?

    Oh for crying out loud… I’m NOT saying the show is “geared” toward men! What I’m saying is there are probably elements of the show that men would find more appealing when compared to the likes of HOD and TCD.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan W: “I know TCD dropped to a 0.3 last week, but I truly believe if The CW were to renew BATB, it would definitely be getting the same ratings as TCD next season. ”

    That’s hardly a reason to renew either of them, especially TCD. Face it, TCD is DEAD. There is NO WAY the CW renews a first season show with a .4 average. No way.

    Win: If they retooled BATB to emphasize the love story, then they’ve screwed up big time. They should have done the opposite and emphasized the beast conspiracy. They were correct on the procedural aspect, that was just dumb. Clearly the producers have no idea what to do with the show.

    As for BATB fans, CLEARLY the vast majority are women. I watch it for the beast conspiracy mythology, not the original myth concept. They could have made the show a real science fiction action show with a love story component, but they’ve botched it all to hell. That’s not even counting the poor casting. bad writing, bad directing and bad characterization.

  • Ultima

    @Jim
    More & more “reality” shows cluttering the airwaves every year.

    :roll:

    If you account for the lack of original programming on Saturdays, the amount of scripted TV shows on the major broadcast networks is virtually unchanged over the past two decades.

    Additionally, there is more original scripted programming on cable now than there was a decade ago.

  • TSC’s Revenge

    Truthfully, if Pedowitz was really committed to attracting men to the CW network, he would dump TCD, HOD, & BATB. However, he probably won’t because he’s generally terrible at his job.
    My prediction is that TCD is gone, BATB is likely gone, HOD will likely stay; however, only because the “Queen of the CW,” i.e. Racel Bilson, happens to be on it.
    HOD has never pulled the kind of ratings that would compel renewal. Furthermore, most of the online downloading (the vast majority via bittorrent) does nothing to enhance the revenue garnered by the show.

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