CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

April 9th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


ready bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult (some F) :oops: (canceled 4/10) 0.34
90210 canceled 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.91
Beauty And The Beast :) :) :) :) 0.94
Supernatural renewed 1.49
Arrow renewed 1.58
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.95

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In what may be the only real disagreement this season between the Cancellation Bear's Renew/Cancel Index and Robert's Bubble Watch, the bear is once again moving his Beauty & The Beast prediction back to "likely to be renewed".

Three reasons why the bear's making the move. Beauty & The Beast ratings relative to other CW scripted shows continue to hold in the 90%+ range which is typically signals "likely to be renewed" (retentionistas may begin their howling now). As noted in previous weeks, the CW has never begun a 10 hour Fall schedule without at least six hours of "veteran" scripted shows, and canceling Beauty & The Beast would leave them with just five. Finally, Beauty & The Beast is the only 100% CBS produced show currently on the CW schedule that's able to be renewed (Hart Of Dixie is CBS&WB). Although he doesn't have historical records to back it up, bear guesses that joint venture quid pro quo is likely to carry at least a little decision making weight.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Carl

    The CW needs some programs that pull in some ratings! They may be stuck with their low dudes, since scrapping everything would be too expensive! Look for the CW to fold unless these low performers improve! In the past, 7th Heaven with WB/CW could pull ahead of Fox! None of cw’s program ever does that!

  • SecretShame

    This decision makes quite a bit of sense. In a certain sense, the remaining shows aren’t really in competition with each other any more. There’s been a sorting of the herd in recent weeks, with 90210 gone, Cult as good as gone and TCD well below the remaining shows (bar Nikita where special rules apply) in ratings terms. BATB is very unlikely to get edged out by any of these. Instead, it’s in competition with the pilots.

    And not with the pilots the network has high hopes for. With the fourth, fifth, sixth choices out of the eight ordered. Even assuming an hour of reality filler, which isn’t quite a certainty, and assuming HOD and Nikita renewals too, the CW still need to fill four more hours. Can they do that without renewing BATB? Well, yes, but doing so would be problematic. They would have to promote four new shows at once. And they would have to either order six of eight pilots, which would be both expensive and require an unusual degree of belief in the prospects of their third worst pilot, or risk having only one replacement show.

    Any of those things could conceivably happen, but if BATB’s numbers stay stable for the remainder of its season, I’d give it a 60% shot.

  • Freyja

    I am starting to think their pilots might be looking really bad, with the exception of a few, if they plan to renew almost everything. Or they plan on using the cable model which is shorter seasons.

    I guess we will see, but I suspect they will pick up The Originals and one other.

  • Jonay

    I was reading a report on Deadline and they said The CW has a possibility of renewing all dramas (Hart of Dixie Beauty and The Beast The Carrie Diaries and give NIKITA a final season) is their a possibility The Cw would do this????????????????????

  • RandomCommentor

    @SecretShame
    I was JUST about to post that same analysis. It is indeed in competition with pilots and could go either way…
    The deeper question though is if CBS & WB are going to make a serious attempt for next year or have the network continue to have rather irrelevant ratings and horrible ad rates.

    It is a long shot, but with CBS’s success they could always shuffle some of their pilots off to the CW.

    Either way, it is certainly a bubble show. We’ll know in about a month.

  • Tom

    What I’ve been saying for months.

    At best, CW has 4 open slots in Fall. (That’s assuming Nikita, HoD, and ANTM all air in Fall.)
    At best, CW has 5 open slots in Spring.

    CW, since being responsible for only 5 days, has gone with 4 new shows ONCE (when Pedowitz took over).

    CW has 8 scripted pilots this year.
    CW had 8 scripted pilots last year. Out of those 8, 5 went to series.

    So unless CW is very aggressive with new shows this Fall, AND picks up more of their pilots than last year or fills all their failed Fall shows with repeats and whatever reality spackle they can slap together, will likely keep at least one show just to fill airtime.

    Out of the two:
    BATB gets better numbers (albeit inflated by VD).
    BATB is closer to syndication, though both are unlikely to get there. (That CD can’t get there before CW has to renegotiate with Tribune doesn’t help.)

    As to Deadline’s comments, I wouldn’t put too much faith in them. Andreeva does good work, but seems to bite on suggestions by producers far too easily. (Nikita only getting 6-13 would fly in the face of all we know about syndication.)

  • Kris

    Instead of “Patient Bear”, I’d like to think of him as “Contemplative Bear” realizing his mistake of ever putting BatB in the toss up category in the first place, glad to see he has come to his senses ;) Beauty and the Beast is a winner in my book!

  • JJA

    Nikita’s producer tweeted that the “6-13 episode final season” rumor is false. No decision has yet been made.

    Given that the CW seems to follow NO logic at all, I predict only Cult will be canceled. HOD, Nikita, BATB and TCD will all get renewed.

  • DenverDean

    Once again, there is not THAT much difference between 80 and 88 hours for a drama. So if Nikita gets 13 = 80. Plenty to shop around. Look at Flashpoint, which stopped production at 75, even after the ION deal. (The season was actually reduced from 18 to 13.) Even shows like The Unit – 69 episodes have been syndicated.

  • nika

    Very happy and very hopeful for Beauty and the Beast! This show deserves a recognition and all that tuned in not right away, wished they started watching sooner! So people watch it and enjoy it!

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @DenverDean

    You think CW would be smart enough to give it 21 at least so they can hit the magic 88 for syndication.

  • Kavyn

    The only way it gets renewed is if they want original programming on friday at 9pm. Of the CW is satisfied using friday at 9 as a rerun slot instead then BATB is doomed.

    It definitely does not deserve a renewal, but many have (rightfully) said the same about Nikita so I have no right to complain.

  • Anyanka

    Since the CW didn’t announce a summer-only run of ANTM, we can assume it will run into the fall.

    ANTM + 3 series already renewed + HOD + Nikita = 6 shows in the fall.

    If they hypothetically renewed both BATA and TCD for the fall, that would take up 8 slots in the fall, leaving room for only two new fall shows, including the Originals.

    Does anyone really think that the CW plans on airing only 2 new shows in the fall? Unless they save TCD or BATB for midseason, the CW won’t renew all the bubble shows. The Deadline article sounds wrong to me. The CW could renew either TCD (unlikely) or BATB, or neither. They won’t renew both.

  • Brandy

    @denverDean thank you !Ive been saying the same thing:Veronica Mars was syndicated with 64 ,Community( if it gets cancelled) will have 79& a syndication deal,Til Death had 81& was syndicated.Reaper was just syndicated with 31 on Fearnet.Im glad you mentioned two others.

  • david

    I read the Deadline article last night too. I dont think the affiliates want the Carrie Diaries renewed only geting a .4 as of late. I thought it was interesting how they said Nikita will get a short season because Craig is working on his new AMC show now. I wonder if that would be a short final season. I hope they pick up four or 5 new shows for next season. I think it will be the Originals, The hundred, the Selection and the tomorrow and if they can Oxygen too.

  • The Original J

    Nevermind. I should have read through the earlier comments before posting.

  • Dave

    Nikita will come back regardless so it doesn’t matter the episode count. Craig has other obligations to a new show on a better network. “Ain’t nobody got time for The C-Dub when you hav AMC” ;)

    Beauty and the Male model wont make it beyond Season 2.

    Hart of Dixie is safe.

    Carrie will and most definitely should be cancelled! Toss it in the same trash bin you tossed Gossip Girl and 90210 in Mr. Pedowitz!

  • david

    Speaking of shows that dont have 88 episodes that are sindicated leverage has i think 77 episodes and it has been sindicated too.

  • Dave

    I do think however, that there’s a lot going on back stage that we don’t know about. For all we know, The CW and the studio could want a full season but Craig is obviously committed to Turn on AMC.

    Maybe he’s the one who wants the final wrap up?

  • dantas

    @Bill,

    LOL @ “some F” :) Just made my day

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