NBC: 'Hannibal' Starts As Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 9th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.88
Community :| :| :| 0.89
Deception* :oops: 0.91
Go On :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Hannibal :) :) :) :) 1.13
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
The Office final season 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Up All Night :oops: pending

While the cancellation bear would like no better to have the chance to devour rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans, the show's premiere ratings last week were plenty good enough on ratings challenged NBC to have the bear begin his prediction for its future at "likely to be renewed". Early predictions are subject to rapid change, stay tuned.

The observant will note that the bear has moved The New Normal prediction up to "likely canceled" from "certain to be canceled". With its recent ratings gains airing after The Voice, it's cancellation is not nearly as certain as 1600 Penn or Guys With Kids.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

  • Eric Robinson

    Oh my god! Hannibal is LIKELY to get renewed. This is the best news I have heard all week!

  • One

    Waitaminute, is this in reference to the scene where Hannibal whipped a nice human liver for supper?

  • WoWza

    The New Normal is coming back

  • Illinois

    What I predict for NBC next season:

    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Wonderland (13-20 episodes)

    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – Parenthood (15 episodes)
    10:00 – Revolution (22 episodes)

    8:00 – Go On (22 episodes)
    8:30 – Assistance (13-22 episodes)
    9:00 – Chicago Fire (24 episodes)
    10:00 – After Hours (13-24 episodes)

    8:00 – Community (13 episodes)
    8:30 – About a Boy (13-22 episodes)
    9:00 – Parks & Recreation (24 episodes)
    9:30 – Happiness (13-22 episodes)
    10:00 – Law & Order: SVU (24 episodes)

    8:00 – Dateline
    9:00 – Grimm (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Dracula (13 episodes)

    Thoughts ?

  • DW

    yeah we can conclude that up all night isnt coming back. although it would be funny if they cancelled Hannibal and kept up all night. :)

  • Dan S

    I disagree upgrading TNN. There’s no way that show is coming back. NBC has a lot of good pilots to choose from that I’m certain can do a lot better. Regarding Hannibal it works for me & hopefully it won’t drop since 1.6 was on the low side for a premiere. I remember Deception premiering to 2.0 & we all saw how that show collapsed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Waitaminute, is this in reference to the scene where Hannibal whipped a nice human liver for supper?”

    Certainly in reference to the movie, but my aging memory was that it was just Hopkins dialog, not an actual cooking scene.

  • maxxie

    When did Smash get cancelled.

  • Mal

    Bill, just curious: in the history of this site have you ever been wrong in predicting a “certain renewal” that did not happen (barring, of course, special behind-the-scenes circumstances)?

  • Ultima

    When did Smash get cancelled.

    About a month ago. Ready for Love takes over the timeslots that Smash, Go On and The New Normal were in starting tonight and Smash moved to Saturday last week.

  • Max Vrany

    @maxxie, Ultima explained it, but Saturday burn-off = death.

  • Lisbeth Slander

    ^Smash was cancelled the minute NBC placed new episodes to run on a Saturday…

    Good news for Hannibal, I really enjoyed it.

    Why is Parenthood higlighted red and the other shows not? (It’s the only other show on the network besides Hannibal I watch)

  • maxxie


  • Ben

    *Lisbeth Slander

    Parenthood is in green color, with five smiling faces meaning it’s certain to be renewed by May 2013.

    If you are seeing red highlights next to it, maybe there’s something wrong with your computer.

  • Nerdbot

    I wouldn’t predict renewal for Hannibal that fast. I mean, it just started last week and it’s very likely that it will go down this week. Not that I want that, actually it was one of shows that I was looking forward to watch, but I think I’ll wait a little bit longer until the ratings stabilize and then I’ll watch it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, just curious: in the history of this site have you ever been wrong in predicting a “certain renewal” that did not happen (barring, of course, special behind-the-scenes circumstances)?”

    A few older, expensive shows have been canceled that were predicted as “certain” renewals at some point in the season (Heroes comes to mind), but I *think* that I had them all downgraded to “likely” by the time they were canceled. Also, shows where the stars simply decided to call it quits (like House).

    Certainly L&O:SVU would fit that model were it canceled now. If Hargitay just decided she was done, (or Dick Wolf for that matter) it’s not something I can predict.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I wouldn’t predict renewal for Hannibal that fast. “

    I make predictions based on available ratings immediately. That’s just how I roll.

    Robert attempts to extrapolate future ratings. I do not.

    As always, my predictions may change when ratings do.

  • Hanna

    8pm The Voice
    10pm Revolution/Bloodline (13 Ep Midseason)

    8pm The Voice/The Biggest Loser
    9pm Parenthood
    10pm Hatfields & McCoys

    8pm Assistance
    8.30pm The New Normal
    9pm Believe
    10pm Chicago Fire

    8pm Go On
    8.30pm Michael J Fox Comedy
    9pm Parks & Recreation
    9.30pm Brenda Forever
    10pm Law & Order:SVU

    8pm Whitney
    8.30pm Community
    9pm Grimm
    10pm Dateline

    Midseason:Ironside, The Sixth Gun, About A Boy, Craig Robinson Comedy

  • alvar

    NBC need to completely rethink Thursday nights. Cut comedy time and come up with a fresh concept next season. Comedies don’t stand a chance up against The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men.

  • Kris

    Remember in past seasons when people were worried that Parks & Rec wouldn’t get renewed? Now it’s NBC’s highest rated comedy after The Office, which is done shortly anyway.

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