NBC: 'Hannibal' Starts As Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 9th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


chianti-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.88
Community :| :| :| 0.89
Deception* :oops: 0.91
Go On :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Hannibal :) :) :) :) 1.13
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
The Office final season 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Up All Night :oops: pending

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While the Cancellation Bear would like no better to have the chance to devour rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans, the show's premiere ratings last week were plenty good enough on ratings challenged NBC to have the bear begin his prediction for its future at "likely to be renewed". Early predictions are subject to rapid change, stay tuned.

The observant will note that the bear has moved The New Normal prediction up to "likely canceled" from "certain to be canceled". With its recent ratings gains airing after The Voice, it's cancellation is not nearly as certain as 1600 Penn or Guys With Kids.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Sacro

    I think NBC’s belief in Jimmy Fallon will no doubt get Guys with Kids renewed, why not the own the show anyways. NBC just needs to open up a multi-cam block. I think they should look hard at Fridays to start out, ABC had surprising success there and they might expand too. NBC needs to find something to go with Whitney too.

    NBC needs to just cut the Thursday comedies and go fresh there and move Grimm and Revolution there.

    Not sure if the Chicago Fire spin-off is going to be ready for next season but I’d put that on Tuesdays at 10pm and leave CF there on Wednesdays. SVU can wrap-up on Thursdays at 10pm. NBC would pretty much have the 10pm hour solved during the week as whatever they put on Mondays would get a good boost and Fridays with Dateline.

  • Tony JJ

    lol when a friday scripted show is at the network’s scripted average!

  • Tommy Mickens

    Yes Bill, you did the right thing with The New Normal.

    LOL @ all those people trying to argue with me the other day when its season finale ratings came out. All I was trying to say is that it definitely is not CERTAIN to be cancelled with those finale ratings and NBC seeming to like it. It doesn’t mean it’s likely to be renewed either, but it’s in no way “certain” to be cancelled.

    But of course, back then, Bill hadn’t had a chance to upgrade the show to “likely”, so all I got was everyone else arguing with a brick wall that of course The New Normal was “certain” to be cancelled no matter what. You guys wanna come back now and start arguing again about how crazy I am for saying TNN shouldn’t be “certain” cancellation and should at worst be “likely” cancellation? LOL, yeah, I thought not.

    Personally, I’d have it as toss up, but with its first-part season finale adjusting down to a 1.7 from a 1.9, I can see “likely” cancellation as the proper category, especially given what some are saying about how NBC might hardly bring back any comedies next year (though I’m not certain I agree with that). But the season’s not over yet for some shows, and if they continue to go down, that only makes TNN look more appealing in comparison, especially when the network already seems to like it and want an excuse to renew it.

  • Wright

    NBC now has 3 shows I watch Revolution, Grimm and Hannibal.

  • blackrock1969

    Proposed NBC schedule:

    Monday
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 The Blacklist (new)

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice results
    9:00 Untitled Sean Hayes
    9:30 Untitled John Mulaney (new)
    10:00 Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8:00 Untitled Rand Ravich (new)
    9:00 Chicago Fire
    10:00 I Am Victor (new)

    Thursday
    8:00 Parks and Recreation
    8:30 Community/Assistance (new, midseason)
    9:00 Untitled Michael J. Fox (new)
    10:00 Revolution

    Friday
    8:00 Grimm
    9:00 Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 Dateline NBC

    Sunday (midseason)
    7:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams
    8:00 The Biggest Loser/Celebrity Apprentice
    10:00 Believe (new)

    Thoughts are welcome.

  • blackrock1969

    Oops, forgot one thing…

    Thursday
    9:30 Go On

  • Darkridedan

    Not to sound like I’m in denial, but when the stars walk away from a show while it’s being retooled, it’s as good as cancelled. Not that it keeps me up all night. ;)

  • bjssp

    @Sacro:

    The thing is, why GWK? I’ve never seen the show, but it doesn’t strike me as the type that will build. And while I don’t think it’s impossible to mix single and multi cam shows, it seems easier to go with one or the other in pairing comedies. The network has plenty of single cam comedies with a family (friendly) vibe on tap next season.

  • Dan

    If Hannibal stays at its current level or goes up it will be renewed, if it keeps dipping it will be axed. NBC can get away with just renewing SVU, Parenthood, Grimm, Revolution and Chicago Fire in terms of drama shows so it wont matter if Hannibal flops because all episodes will air.

    Comedies Parks & Rec and Go On seem very safe as well as Community and Whitney to some extent, all the rest seem dead.

  • Dan

    @Kris – I remember that, In September 2009 just after Community premiered this site had Community and The Office certain to be renewed (with a 3.7 and 4.8 average respectively) while Parks averaged a 1.9-2.2 and was deemed likely to be cancelled but it did OK and NBC renewed it. It has the same average now and is now certain to be renewed so it just show how low NBC’s relative comedy ratings have gone.

  • Renee

    I am glad to see positives for Hannibal so far. I watched the pilot and found it to be good with potential to grow. Hopefully, NBC will give it the chance.

  • Dave

    All I have to say is that I’ve completely caught up with Parenthood S1-S4 and I NEED MORE OF THE BRAVERMAN’s IN MY LIFE!

    RENEW IT FOR 22 EPISODES NBC! 15 was way too short!

  • HV

    @blackrock
    I would reccomend putting Parks & Recreation in the Thursday @ 9:30 slot. It’s the least family of your four Thursday shows. I do see why you put it at 8:00, to be against The Big Bang Theory, but you should go with either Community/Assistance or MJF there. Probably MJF because it is sure to be a success. Even if it sucks it will do well through November.
    Also, your schedule is missing new dramas Dracula and Crossbones, both of which have already received 10 episode orders. My suggestion is that you put one of them Monday @ 10:00 between seasons of The Voice and the other at Tuesday @ 8:00 between The Voice. But you can put them wherever you want.

  • senor chang

    My schedule:

    Monday
    8 The Voice
    10 NEW DRAMA

    Drama with the most hit potential goes here.

    Tuesday
    8 The Voice
    9 NEW DRAMA
    10 Parenthood

    I was flip-flopping between plugging Revolution at 10 or keeping Parenthood there, but I decided on this for two reasons: 1) Parenthood has always done well in this slot, and if it isn’t broke there isn’t any need to fix it; 2) Revolution may not be a blockbuster hit, but it has an audience, and it can help NBC elsewhere. That said, I think it doesn’t make too much of a difference either way.

    Wednesday
    8 Community
    8:30 Parks and Recreation
    9 SVU
    10 Chicago Fire

    The drama block is doing good business, and I’d keep both shows where they are: Chicago Fire, in particular, is showing signs of blooming into a really solid show and should be left where it is (unless NBC wants another Revenge situation on their hands, where a solid freshman is moved into a higher-profile slot only to collapse). Neither Community nor Parks is a blockbuster, but they’ll provide stability in a timeslot that desperately needs it–and open up room on Thursdays.

    Thursday
    8 NEW COMEDY
    8:30 NEW COMEDY
    9 NEW COMEDY
    9:30 NEW COMEDY
    10 Revolution

    Reboot everything on this night. NBC has shuffled comedies on this night for long enough, but if they really want a shot at long-term improvement, they need to send a clear message that they’re starting over. Revolution goes here: it’s young, it has buzz, and if its audience isn’t huge (though my guess is that it will stabilize in the low 2s to high 1s), it’s at least a safe bet. I suspect many will argue with that, but it’s likely not going to be a monster hit at this point (even behind the Voice): if you don’t want it taking up valuable space behind NBC’s only hit, what do you have to lose trying it out in a slot that’s been poison lately? How bad can things really get?

    Friday
    8 Dateline
    9 Grimm
    10 Dracula

    I like Alex’s idea of premiering the Friday horror shows before Halloween.

    Sunday is left to football, obviously.

    Hold Go On for midseason to replace one of the veteran Wednesday comedies; cancel everything else. Have two new dramas (either for Sunday or for Monday/Tuesday should NBC move one of their fall dramas elsewhere) and two new comedies (to replace the failures in the Thursday block) ready to go. If Hannibal ends up succeeding, it can air its second season Sundays at 10 behind a two-hour reality show from 8-9 (Biggest Loser?)

    In a way, NBC’s really lucky that they have the Winter Olympics next year: having two weeks of programming in February gives them the opportunity to both experiment in January and go straight from March to May with very few repeats.

  • senor chang

    *That would be Nick’s idea, my bad.

  • Jon

    @ Wowza…. i agree I think the new normal has an outside shot at coming back, haters be damned

  • Jon

    @ Sacro….you might be on to something with the Fallon angle, especially now that he will be taking over for Jay. They need to promote the heck out of guys with kids, it’s such a great show. It’s really refreshing to. A good show that you can let the whole family watch, and thats a rare thing these days.

  • Mris

    Revolution should be canceled. It is just soo bad. I tried; really I did. But it is just awful.

  • Nick

    @blackrock1969

    I like your schedule, except for this:

    Sunday (midseason)
    7:00 Rock Center with Brian Williams
    8:00 The Biggest Loser/Celebrity Apprentice

    – First of all, why put Rock Center to flop on Sundays when Dateline does perfectly fine there? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
    – Secondly, thanks to the Olympics, there isn’t room for The Biggest Loser and Celeb Apprentice to timeshare. Just have TBL, it does well on Sundays and CA is falling fast,

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Bill

    While the Cancellation Bear would like no better to have the chance to devour rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans

    Nice touch!

    (Well, maybe “nice” isn’t the right word, as we are talking about serial killer cannibalism, but I certainly appreciate what you did there. ;) )

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