NBC: 'Hannibal' Starts As Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

April 9th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


chianti-bear
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 7, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.64
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.88
Community :| :| :| 0.89
Deception* :oops: 0.91
Go On :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Hannibal :) :) :) :) 1.13
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
The Office final season 1.43
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Up All Night :oops: pending

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While the Cancellation Bear would like no better to have the chance to devour rookie drama Hannibal with a nice Chianti and some fava beans, the show's premiere ratings last week were plenty good enough on ratings challenged NBC to have the bear begin his prediction for its future at "likely to be renewed". Early predictions are subject to rapid change, stay tuned.

The observant will note that the bear has moved The New Normal prediction up to "likely canceled" from "certain to be canceled". With its recent ratings gains airing after The Voice, it's cancellation is not nearly as certain as 1600 Penn or Guys With Kids.

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • The End

    @Mris

    Better call NBC there buddy, the network clearly needs to know this vital information, need the number?

  • Nick

    @senor chang

    I like Alex’s idea of premiering the Friday horror shows before Halloween.

    *That would be Nick’s idea, my bad.

    Thanks, but I can’t take the credit either, lol. A bunch of people had already stated that Grimm should start around Halloween, I simply clarified that to the weekend before.

    I do want to say one thing about your schedule, though

    Thursday
    8 NEW COMEDY
    8:30 NEW COMEDY
    9 NEW COMEDY
    9:30 NEW COMEDY

    This wouldn’t be such a bad idea if NBC’s comedy pilots didn’t completely suck! I mean, obviously I can’t tell if they’re bad, but they don’t attract the attention needed to have a successful revamp like ABC did in 2009 on Wednesdays. The only buzzy one is the About a Boy adaptation. Add that and the already-ordered Michael J. Fox project and you’ve got two. Maybe if you find a compatible sitcom to pair with MJF you could launch that. But what about the fourth comedy? Would you just leave it to die against TBBT? I’d suggest slightly calming down on the revamp front putting at 8 pm either Betty White or a flexible reality/drama (Celeb Apprentice? Parenthood?) and leaving About a Boy for midseason.

  • Jon

    @Mris…..Revolution will not be cancelled. There is still too many people that are watching it. It’s the networks highest rated drama, why would they cancel it?

  • k:Alex

    What NBC must do right now is:

    Monday
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 Revolution

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice results
    9:00 Chicago Fire
    10:00 Hannibal

    Wednesday
    8:00 Dateline NBC
    10:00 Parenthood re-run

    Thursday
    8:00 Community
    8:30 Go On
    9:00 The Office
    9:30 Parks and Recreation
    10:00 Law & Order: SVU (next season it will be at this slot too)

    Friday
    8:00 Law & Order: SVU re-run
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Rock Center

    Sunday
    7:00 Ready For Love
    9:00 Celebrity Apprentice

    Cancel: Fashion star (summer)

    I know this are many (small) changes.
    However, the current schedule is crap…

  • Fred

    @k:Alex

    Ready For Love should be yanked off the schedule asap. A 1.5 with a monster lead in is unacceptable.

    Rock Center should not be on Friday 10:00 against 20/20. It gets creamed weekly. As a matter of fact it gets low ratings wherever NBC places it. Cancel it already NBC!

    Dateline would be better on Friday 8:00 than a repeat of the already low rated L&O.

  • Steven

    I cant belive they are canceling 1600 penn seriously one of the best comedies ever.

  • Fred

    NBC is going to have a very tough time beating FOX’s 18-49 demo season average. The Voice is only on for 3 hours a week. Most of the rest of the schedule is a mess. Especially the sitcoms.
    Lucky NBC has the Olympics next season. Along with The Voice and NFL, NBC will be in much better shape. But the Olympics should be utilized to promote the scripted shows, new and old for long term success.

  • ABCDEF

    @senor chang

    I completely agree with this schedule, especially for the Thursday part.

  • senor chang

    @Nick
    I don’t expect all four shows to do well, which is why I clarified that NBC have two more comedy pilots on tap for midseason: the 8PM show will 99% be DOA, the other three save for the Michael J. Fox are up in the air. However, there’s still a real message/impact to having four new shows on at once that’ll make promotion easier and project an image of confidence (frankly, in my opinion, lack of confidence is NBC’s biggest problem).

    Just out of curiosity, what was your reasoning behind having two new sitcoms sandwiched in between two dramas? I didn’t quite see the flow.

    @ABCDEF
    I must be doing something right, then :D Playing scheduler is fun!

  • were123

    Some rating information, season to date:
    Season avarage for NBC scripted shows: 1.52
    Season avarage for NBC dramas: 1.61
    Season avarage for NBC comedies: 1.45

    Avarage for highest rate drama: Revolution- 2.92
    Avarage for lowest rated drama: Do no Harm- 0.8

    Avarage for highest rated comedy: The Office- 2.05
    Avarage for lowest rated comedy: 1600 Pen- 1.11

    If I were an NBC excecutive, I would cancel the lowest rated dramas (Deception and Smash) and keep the others, and axe most comedies, keeping Parks, Go On and Community, premiere only 1 comedy in the fall and have 2 or 3 for midseason. The focus should be on the dramas departmen, only Smash and Deception right now are below 1.6 avarage (Hannibal is pending), while only Parks and Go On have an avarage higher than 1.6 (and Go On crashed without The Voice). They can’t cancel every comedy, so three should be spared, and NBC better start developing more dramas

  • Oliver

    @senor chang

    That’s roughly the schedule I hope to see NBC announce too.

    NBC put the overwhelming majority of their promotional efforts into their “all-new NBC comedy Thursday”.

  • Larry

    My NBC fantasy schedule:

    Monday
    8 – The Voice
    10- Believe

    Tuesday
    8 – The Voice Results
    9 – Welcome to the Family
    9:30 – Undateable
    10 – Crossbones

    Wednesday
    8 – Dateline
    9 – Parenthood
    10 – Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8 – Parks & Rec
    8:30 – About a Boy
    9 – MJ Fox
    9:30 – Happiness
    10 – Law & Order SVU

    Friday
    8 – Grimm
    9 – Dracula
    10 – Revolution

    Sunday after Football
    7 – Dateline
    8 – Biggest Loser
    10 – After Hours

  • Nick

    @senor chang

    I don’t expect all four shows to do well, which is why I clarified that NBC have two more comedy pilots on tap for midseason: the 8PM show will 99% be DOA, the other three save for the Michael J. Fox are up in the air.

    The problem is, I don’t know if the block could survive that. Look at ABC’s revamp in 2009. There were 4 new shows– Hank at 8, The Middle at 8:30, Modern Family at 9, and Cougar Town at 9:30. For reasons unknown, Hank flopped, and majorly. It was pulled after a few episodes. You could tell this affected the whole block. The Middle was on the fence the whole year, teetering between renewal and cancellation. Modern Family was also hurt a little. As a new show, it wasn’t as well-known. If I remember correctly, it was only slightly above the scripted average and being outrated by Cougar Town. Now, all three shows survived because they all turned out to be solid shows with loyal audiences. If you stack 3 nobodies in with MJF, they might not be as successful. You could be dragging down MJF even. You say that being all-new will help it. I agree, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.

    Just out of curiosity, what was your reasoning behind having two new sitcoms sandwiched in between two dramas? I didn’t quite see the flow.

    In my schedule, the first drama is Parenthood, and it was very compatible with The New Normal this fall. I think it would flow well with family comedies. As for the 10 pm drama, I’m actually reconsidering that. I have SVU, but I think Revolution should be there and SVU on Wednesday. As a family drama at heart, Recolution would flow well with the comedies as well.

  • KJ Styles

    @Alvar- “Comedies don’t stand a chance up against The Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men.”

    Apparently neither do dramas, just ask ABC. They have had 7 dramas premiere since TBBT moved to Thursdays at 8 and every last one of them got cancelled.

    While NBC’s comedies will never beat TBBT, it’s ok for them because their scripted show average sucks anyway. So even if a show averages in the mid to high-1′s it’ll likely be renewed.

  • HV

    @senor chang
    If NBC was to premire four new comedies on Thursday night, MJF 100% must be at 8:00 so that Thurs @ 8:00 does not become a death slot and so that you will have more than MJF and one more random comedy be a success.

  • Fam

    These schedules are awful, none of them takes care of the problem NBC is having the most and that’s having solid anchors like Dateline at 8pm. Seriously people are still putting weak comedies like Community in the lead-off position. I roll my eyes to those schedules honestly.

    I definitely see Whitney returning its starting to get to that syndication stage after next season where it builds to 90 episodes.

  • Bradleigh H Horton

    For those who predicted CHICAGO FIRE NOT to make it. You’re just plain DUMB! They said it was going to be on for 18 episode in its Freshman year. Since then, this fire has burned, bolder, brighter, and stronger than critics think. As for NASHVILLE, ho hum.

  • Joshua Williams

    They should cancel that stupid singing show.

  • Joshua Williams

    They should cancel that stupid singing show and keep guys with kids.

  • senor chang

    @Joshua Williams
    That stupid singing show makes NBC tons of money and by extension makes expenditures on shows like Guys With Kids possible.

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