When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Other than Cult getting canceled (who didn't see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.
Will Convention Save Beauty and the Beast?
When it comes to Beauty and the Beast, Bill thinks it's likely to be renewed and I think it's likely to be canceled. For us, that's a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.
Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty and the Beast, but it's only one of them --past scheduling history-- that's the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there's only one part of it where we disagree:
1. CW can't cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It's more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it's Beauty and the Beast.
It's a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don't), I would certainly agree with the third.
I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6. Whether it's five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can't do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don't think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*
Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW's fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).
Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We're talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It's a difference, but it's not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don't happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That's the first time that's happened since I've been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.
*It's fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It's only announcing them in advance that never happens.
**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America's Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.
Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings
If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it's reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you're CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that's the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.
So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don't see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.
It's not quite the same as last year's situation with The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie where Hart of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking "it's the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!"
Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart of Dixie's future ratings would be stable if renewed and and that The Secret Circle's would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn't a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beast will be moved if renewed it's probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diaries anyway.
If you're in the "but they have to pick one of them!" camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I'm not in that camp this year. Is the CW? We only have to wait about a month to find out.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final Season Finished|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season Finished|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|Fringe||Fox||Final Season Finished|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Office, The||NBC||Final Season|
|Red Widow||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Cancellation Predicted|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Golden Boy||CBS||Cancellation Predicted|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||Cancellation Predicted|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Cancellation Predicted|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|Up All Night||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|The New Normal||NBC||Cancellation Predicted|
|How to Live with Your Parents...||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Hannibal||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Middle, The||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Modern Family||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Renewal Predicted|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewal Predicted|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewal Predicted|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Renewal Predicted|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Renewed|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Renewed|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Renewed|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Renewed|