Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast:' Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

April 14th, 2013

Heart of Darkness

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cult getting canceled (who didn't see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty And The Beast?

When it comes to Beauty And The Beast, Bill thinks it's likely to be renewed and I think it's likely to be canceled. For us, that's a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty And The Beast, but it's only one of them --past scheduling history-- that's the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there's only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can't cancel both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It's more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it's Beauty And The Beast.

It's a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don't), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6.  Whether it's five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can't do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don't think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW's fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We're talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It's a difference, but it's not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don't happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That's the first time that's happened since I've been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It's fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It's only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America's Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it's reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you're CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that's the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don't see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It's not quite the same as last year's situation with The Secret Circle and Hart Of Dixie where Hart Of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking "it's the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!"

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart Of Dixie's future ratings would be stable if renewed and  and that The Secret Circle's would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn't a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beast will be moved if renewed it's probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diaries anyway.

If you're in the "but they have to pick one of them!" camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I'm not in that camp this year. Is the CW?  We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
-

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Cult CW Canceled/Final Season
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Office, The NBC Final Season
Smash NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Red Widow ABC Cancellation Predicted
Body Of Proof ABC Cancellation Predicted
Happy Endings ABC Cancellation Predicted
CSI: NY CBS Cancellation Predicted
Golden Boy CBS Cancellation Predicted
Vegas CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty and the Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
Carrie Diaries, The CW Cancellation Predicted
Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancellation Predicted
Touch Fox Cancellation Predicted
1600 Penn NBC Cancellation Predicted
Guys With Kids NBC Cancellation Predicted
Up All Night NBC Cancellation Predicted
Deception NBC Cancellation Predicted
The New Normal NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
How To Live With Your Parents... ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Neighbors, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Middle, The ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Nikita CW Renewal Predicted
Glee Fox Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Parenthood NBC Renewal Predicted
Revolution NBC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
Good Wife, The CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
Mentalist, The CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed

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  • Holly

    @Tommy,

    Are you under the impression that total viewers matter? They don’t.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Am I wrong on that?

    @Holly: you’re not wrong about what has been said about ANTM, but I make no assumptions about that until the fall schedule is announced (or a summer date for ANTM is announced). I don’t think the “five is too many” is an unreasonable position, but CW is in a state where it doesn’t really matter, i.e. tossup: wouldja rather four new shows plus a predicted (but “veteran”) ratings dog, or five new shows?

  • Brian

    Hope BATB is renewed for season 2..they need to give it a chance and since it has already brought in numbers higher than at least 5 of their other shows..it deserves to be renewed!

  • halloween

    CW should cancel both losers BatB and TCD…their pilots sound promising but no one watches CW

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I’m guessing Robert’s waiting for more than 2 episodes to air before taking it off the bubble.

    Indeed, I’m merely waiting. Both Hannibal & How to Live With Your Parents have ratings where they’d be renewed through 2 episodes.

  • Victoria_BATB

    “If you’re in the “but they have to pick one of them!” camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I’m not in that camp this year.” Thanks for being truthful. But I am!In`BATB camp! Not only for this Year, but for years to come!

  • Holly

    @Robert,

    It is a bit of a toss up, and I wouldn’t be exceptionally shocked if they canceled BatB and launched 5 (or moved ANTM to fall and launched 4). Still, I’m coming down on the side of renewal.

    The CW only has 8 pilots, so in order to launch 5 in the fall and have 2 for the spring, almost every single one of them would have to work out or at least look like they could do better than whatever they’re predicting for BatB. BatB means they don’t have to pick up a weak pilot just to fill space.

  • Tommy

    @holly

    Viewers in millions do matter, but it’s just that the 18-49 rating is what networks tend to look at more. A show with 9 million viewers obviously has potential and with better scheduling, it could raise the 18-49 rating from a 1.4 rating to around a 2.0 rating. I don’t know any show that has been canceled with 9 million viewers and a low 18-49 rating.

  • Holly

    @Tommy,

    Viewers in millions do matter,

    The cancellation of Harry’s Law says otherwise.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Holly: You think an hour or two of *unscripted* (whether one of those hours is ANTM or not) is more unlikely than I do and you may be right. Occasional disagreement is fun :-) Edit: for clarity, while I don’t think launching 4 new scripted shows in the fall would be a big surprise, 5 would be. I can’t see them doing that, but I can see 5 scripted vets plus 3 (or 4) new scripted plus 2 (or 1) unscripted.

    My best guess is CW picks up 5 of the scripted pilots like last year, though six wouldn’t be a big stretch and then picks up 1-2 Canadian imports (a la LA Complex) for schedule spackle.

  • Holly

    @Robert,

    I hadn’t even considered Canadian shows… That would definitely help their schedule woes. I’ll see if I can find what’s new up there.

    My reticence on the unscripted front is mainly that their unscripted fare has done so horribly. I see them trying again as midseason filler rather than a fall launch with little backup.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    My reticence on the unscripted front is mainly that their unscripted fare has done so horribly.

    I lack that reticence, perhaps to my detriment. Winding up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats seems inevitable regardless, to me it’s only a question of how you wind up there without impeding upfront ad sales. An extra new unknown (whether scripted or unscripted) doesn’t strike me as riskier than keeping a veteran around whose ratings can be predicted, and predicted to be “Carrie Diaries” level at that.

    Edit: and I should add (it’s not in the post) though a renewal of Beauty and the Beast wouldn’t shock me, if it is renewed I’ll be pretty surprised if it’s on the fall schedule (replacement/mid-season spackle would not be a big surprise) so for me, the issues that exist for the fall schedule exist whether you renew it or not.

  • sinbella

    It would be outrageous if Batb is cancelled. The show has huge fan base and potential.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    It would be outrageous if Batb is cancelled. The show has huge fan base and potential.

    Translation: I like the show and I don’t want it to be canceled.

    That’s a reasonable way to feel, but it’s not a reasonable basis for predicting outcomes.

  • JR

    I’ve got to say, at first I liked the BATB, but now (for the last 2 episodes) the show has gone to really good levels. The Action is all around and you don’t want the episode to end. Hopefully the show will get that chance of a 2nd season, and at least will least as the original show lasted (3 years on CBS).

  • Brandy

    @,Tommy, total viewrs dont matter, demo does and Nashville the last two weeks has risen and also beaten BOP, while BoP fell.Now, BzoP may get renewed cause abc cant cancel everything and tax crefits but it could also be cancelked.zThough BoP is in season three, itll only have 44 episodes, meaning itll two full seasons or three moee short seasons to get to 88 (or very close) for syndication.Also, Harrys Laws,CsIMiami, CSINY had 8_10 million total viewrrs but low demo and were cancelled, well CSINY hasnt but its a very big liklehood it will be.

  • John A

    BATB has a huge fanbase? It gets like 1.5 Million with a 0.5-0.6 demo. Thats not huge.

  • david

    I am thinking Beauty and the beast if renewed will moved to Mondays or Tuesdays and paired with a new show like the Selection. I was surprised to see ANTM not on the Summer schedule in July. Maybe it will on on from August threw November again.

  • Anyanka

    CW Fall 2013

    Monday:
    The Tomorrow People
    The 100

    Tuesday:
    The Selection
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday:
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday:
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday:
    Nikita (final season of 22 episodes)
    America’s Next Top Model (August start) / repeats

    Midseason: Oxygen and a Canadian import (Bitten) to replace cancelled shows. If three or more new shows get full-season orders, slide Bitten to Fridays at 9:00 PM instead of having repeats.

    Cancel The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast.

  • Holly

    @Robert,

    An extra new unknown (whether scripted or unscripted) doesn’t strike me as riskier than keeping a veteran around whose ratings can be predicted, and predicted to be “Carrie Diaries” level at that.

    And I’m more “the devil you know” on it.*shrug* I still think launching 5 new shows (scripted or unscripted) in the fall is too much, so unless ANTM ends up in the fall, BatB will.

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